Warrnambool

2026-09-03

Heavy Rail: Out 4m Entire Circuit

Updated: 16:06 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Terralight

Best Bet

None

Best Value

97%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Warrnambool

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

Ms L J Meech: 3W from 9 (33.3% win, 66.7% place)
Jack Hill: 2W from 6 (33.3% win, 33.3% place)
John Allen: 2W from 6 (33.3% win, 50.0% place)
Tom Madden: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 25.0% place)
Teodore Nugent: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 75.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1700m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42500

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Le Plus Rapide Teodore Nugent	7	31%	$$6.71	BEST
2	Winter Arc Tom Madden	1	26%	$$8.31	DANGER
3	Shaw Can Fly Will Gordon	4	25%	$$9.06
4	All Moonlite Jack Hill	8	23%	$$9.82

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Chercover's Award (3) J: John Allen

inconsistent

19%

Halemo (2) J: Shayleigh Ingelse

inconsistent

15%

Helter Peltzer (6) J: Declan Bates

quality stable, inconsistent

23%

#1 4

Le Plus Rapide (7) J: Teodore Nugent

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable

31%

#3 5

Shaw Can Fly (4) J: Will Gordon

quality stable

25%

The Noble Steed (5) J: Craig Atkinson

inconsistent

19%

#4 7

All Moonlite (8) J: Jack Hill

in good form, quality stable, inconsistent

23%

His Lady Bay (10) J: Damien Thornton

inconsistent

23%

Victory Blues (9) J: Toby Atkinson

quality stable, inconsistent

20%

#2 10

Winter Arc (1) J: Tom Madden

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

26%

R2 • 1200m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42500

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Silent Devotion Declan Bates	1	36%	$$4.90	BEST
2	Grifter Thomas Stockdale	7	26%	$$6.50	DANGER
3	Alchemistic Linda Meech	4	26%	$$6.56
4	Mesley Will Gordon	9	20%	$$8.14

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Admiral's Pointe (5) J: John Allen

form a concern, inconsistent

#3 2

Alchemistic (4) J: Linda Meech

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

26%

#2 3

Grifter (7) J: Thomas Stockdale

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

26%

#4 4

Mesley (9) J: Will Gordon

in good form, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

Persian Cat (3) J: Dean Yendall

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

Big Hearted (2) J: Lachlan Neindorf

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

Hendon Honey (8) J: Carleen Hefel

quality stable, inconsistent

19%

#1 8

Silent Devotion (1) J: Declan Bates

proven at distance, flying form

36%

Teia (6) J: Damien Thornton

form a concern, inconsistent

R3 • 1200m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42500

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Northern Gold Will Gordon	6	31%	$$7.88	BEST
2	Mister Solly Tom Madden	8	28%	$$8.03	DANGER
3	I'lberidin'shotgun John Allen	9	27%	$$8.09
4	Star Rotation Thomas Stockdale	10	21%	$$10.05

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

A Little Reward (4) J: Brendon Newport

form a concern, inconsistent

23%

Big Vee (1) J: Linda Meech

quality stable, inconsistent

18%

Flaws And Sins (11) J: Jack Hill

form a concern, inconsistent

#3 4

I'lberidin'shotgun (9) J: John Allen

proven at distance, in good form

27%

#2 5

Mister Solly (8) J: Tom Madden

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

28%

#1 6

Northern Gold (6) J: Will Gordon

track specialist, in good form, quality stable

31%

Prince Prestigious (5) J: Dean Yendall

in good form, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

#4 8

Star Rotation (10) J: Thomas Stockdale

in good form, quality stable

21%

Taajwar (7) J: Shayleigh Ingelse

quality stable, inconsistent

23%

Rousley (2) J: Lachlan Neindorf

inconsistent

18%

11Tikiela (12)SCR

Trust My (3) J: Toby Atkinson

quality stable, inconsistent

16%

R4 • 1400m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42500

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Just My Lot Linda Meech	8	39%	$$5.74	BEST
2	Captain Redbeard Declan Bates	2	22%	$$9.62	DANGER
3	Belle Flamme John Allen	3	24%	$$10.07
4	Pappa Ritch Tom Madden	1	22%	$$10.19

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Captain Redbeard (2) J: Declan Bates

in good form, quality stable

22%

Conjurer (10) J: Ryan Hurdle

quality stable, inconsistent

19%

Jax Gold (5) J: Brendon Newport

inconsistent

18%

#4 4

Pappa Ritch (1) J: Tom Madden

in good form

22%

Aleutian Princess (4) J: Neil Farley

quality stable, inconsistent

16%

#3 6

Belle Flamme (3) J: John Allen

place chance

24%

Greystone (9) J: Teodore Nugent

quality stable, inconsistent

18%

#1 8

Just My Lot (8) J: Linda Meech

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

39%

Monsoon Indi (6) J: Melissa Julius

form a concern, inconsistent

19%

Spotlight On Curly (7) J: Craig Newitt

inconsistent

21%

Compassion (11) J: Lachlan Neindorf

form a concern, inconsistent

R5 • 1400m • Benchmark 62;

Low Value Bet

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $35000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Terralight Teodore Nugent	2	34%	$$7.47	BEST
2	Dubai Dancer Jade Smith	11	32%	$$8.22	DANGER
3	Break The Taboo Dean Yendall	1	26%	$$8.94
4	Justibella Carleen Hefel	4	27%	$$9.69

WINTab 5 Terralight0.5 units

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Dubai Dancer (11) J: Jade Smith

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

32%

Budjik Boy (6) J: Shayleigh Ingelse

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

23%

Heed The Omens (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf

quality stable

22%

Johnny Be Good (7) J: Brad Rawiller

quality stable

12%

#1 5

Terralight (2) J: Teodore Nugent

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

34%

#3 6

Break The Taboo (1) J: Dean Yendall

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

26%

#4 7

Justibella (4) J: Carleen Hefel

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

27%

Pee Bee Noir (5) J: Tom Madden

suited to trip, class edge, quality stable

23%

Arizona Luck (9) J: Linda Meech

proven at level, quality stable

20%

Frosty Night (3) J: Sarah Field

proven at distance, quality stable

23%

Spanish Snitzel (8) J: Melissa Julius

suited to trip, quality stable, inconsistent

21%

R6 • 1200m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $35000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Cinnamon Kiss Linda Meech	2	35%	$$7.25	BEST
2	Empress Rossa Holly Durnan	9	32%	$$7.63	DANGER
3	Silver Cliff Shayleigh Ingelse	4	28%	$$10.12
4	Imminent Storm Teodore Nugent	3	24%	$$10.38

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Ti Tree Lad (11) J: Will Gordon

track specialist, proven at distance

20%

#3 2

Silver Cliff (4) J: Shayleigh Ingelse

proven at distance, quality stable

28%

Artistic Genius (5) J: Neil Farley

proven at distance, inconsistent

20%

#1 4

Cinnamon Kiss (2) J: Linda Meech

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

35%

Aqua Storm (10) J: Jack Hill

proven at distance, in good form

23%

#2 6

Empress Rossa (9) J: Holly Durnan

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

32%

Battle Of The Ice (8) J: Toby Atkinson

proven at distance, quality stable

20%

Crackle 'n' Burn (7) J: Christine Puls

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

20%

Fast 'n' Inzaine (1) J: John Allen

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

19%

#4 10

Imminent Storm (3) J: Teodore Nugent

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

24%

Melissa Kate (6) J: Kate Walters

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

27%

R7 • 2350m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $35000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Pianta Kate Walters	13	28%	$$11.87	BEST
2	Three Reel Roses Damien Thornton	11	27%	$$12.54	DANGER
3	Bismarck Will Gordon	14	23%	$$12.61
4	Chateau Dancer Liana Wood	9	25%	$$13.22

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1The Vocalist (1)SCR

#3 2

Bismarck (14) J: Will Gordon

in good form, quality stable

23%

Hula Beat (15) J: Craig Newitt

place chance

21%

Semper Fortis (12) J: Campbell Rawiller

class edge, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

Trump Card (8) J: Teodore Nugent

quality stable

22%

#1 6

Pianta (13) J: Kate Walters

flying form, quality stable

28%

Amawasha (2) J: Hayley Spitse

place chance

23%

Tupac (6) J: John Allen

track specialist

23%

9Topspin (3)SCR

Initial Moment (1) J: Declan Bates

looking for others

16%

#4 11

Chateau Dancer (9) J: Liana Wood

in good form

25%

Motiver (3) J: Dean Yendall

quality stable

23%

#2 13

Three Reel Roses (11) J: Damien Thornton

in good form

27%

Final Impact (10) J: Sarah Field

quality stable

19%

Mana Combat (7) J: Linda Meech

quality stable

18%

Duhlata (4) J: Melissa Julius

inconsistent

18%

El Amigos (5) J: Melissa Julius

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent

27%

R8 • 1700m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $35000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Hill Cry Melissa Julius	9	27%	$$12.64	BEST
2	Side Piece Tom Madden	2	30%	$$13.80	DANGER
3	Jackand Craig Newitt	10	30%	$$14.33
4	Big Rooster Holly Durnan	3	29%	$$15.11

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#4 1

Big Rooster (3) J: Holly Durnan

solid track record, in good form

29%

Adjudicate (6) J: John Allen

in good form

21%

Placentia Bay (1) J: Declan Bates

in good form

22%

Kingsford (4) J: Dean Yendall

in good form

25%

Both Sides Now (18) J: Declan Bates

solid track record, proven at distance

26%

Mannerheim (13) J: Damien Thornton

proven at distance, proven at level

22%

Hoodys Horse (11) J: Teodore Nugent

suited to trip

23%

#2 8

Side Piece (2) J: Tom Madden

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form

30%

#3 9

Jackand (10) J: Craig Newitt

solid track record, proven at distance

30%

Fearless Writer (7) J: Liana Wood

looking for others

19%

#1 11

Hill Cry (9) J: Melissa Julius

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form

27%

Limosa (16) J: Will Gordon

in good form

22%

Princess Sakiko (8) J: Jack Hill

in good form

19%

Sephia (17) J: Lachlan Neindorf

solid track record

24%

Vieux Riche (15) J:

solid track record, proven at distance

25%

Formidable Force (12) J: Shayleigh Ingelse

looking for others

17%

Treasury Place (14) J: Neil Farley

solid track record

24%

Forever Jeune (5) J: Linda Meech

place chance

21%

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

No confident bets for this meeting

Total Stake: 0.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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