| Meeting | Race | Horse | Type | Price | Est. Price | Overlay | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warwick Farm | R4 | Leica Storm | EW | — | $5.12PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Ipswich | R4 | Power Pack | WIN | — | $5.67PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Devonport Synthetic | R1 | Azonto | WIN | $2.37 | $3.66ESTIMATE |
— | 38% |
| Murray Bridge GH | R5 | Goodlookin' Guru | WIN | — | $8.47PF MODEL |
— | 33% |
| Murray Bridge GH | R6 | Durham | WIN | — | $6.64PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Belmont Park | R1 | Guarantor | WIN | — | $3.40PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Belmont Park | R7 | Centre Bond | WIN | — | $7.97PF MODEL |
— | 33% |
| Ruakaka | R6 | Perfectmanz | WIN | — | $4.02PF MODEL |
— | 41% |
Across 1018 STAY OUT races since mid-February, our model's top-ranked horse won 18.7% of the time — roughly double the random baseline of 10–12%. This confirms the model is still finding competitive horses in these races, but we pass strategically: low confidence gap between runners, weak form data, unsuitable conditions, or insufficient edge over the market. The 48.6% win+place rate shows the horse finishing in the frame nearly half the time — useful for STAY OUT races you might want to use in exotics.
| Date | Races Skipped | Would've Won | Win Rate | Would've Placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 46 | 5 | 11% | 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | 17 | 7 | 41% | 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | 33 | 3 | 9% | 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | 78 | 13 | 17% | 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | 43 | 7 | 16% | 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | 21 | 2 | 10% | 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | 28 | 6 | 21% | 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | 20 | 3 | 15% | 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | 13 | 2 | 15% | 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | 39 | 10 | 26% | 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | 55 | 7 | 13% | 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | 24 | 3 | 13% | 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | 27 | 9 | 33% | 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | 40 | 13 | 33% | 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | 19 | 3 | 16% | 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | 22 | 5 | 23% | 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | 41 | 6 | 15% | 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | 74 | 18 | 24% | 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | 29 | 3 | 10% | 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | 27 | 6 | 22% | 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | 39 | 10 | 26% | 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | 26 | 6 | 23% | 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | 25 | 4 | 16% | 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | 28 | 6 | 21% | 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | 76 | 13 | 17% | 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | 26 | 2 | 8% | 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | 31 | 7 | 23% | 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | 33 | 3 | 9% | 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | 24 | 3 | 13% | 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | 14 | 5 | 36% | 1 |