| Meeting | Race | Horse | Type | Price | Est. Price | Overlay | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosehill | R2 | Danish Prince | EW | — | $6.49PF MODEL |
— | 33% |
| Rosehill | R8 | Dark Glitter | WIN | — | $5.25PF MODEL |
— | 45% |
| Rosehill | R9 | War Eternal | WIN | — | $9.13PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Flemington | R2 | Leopard Shark | WIN | — | $4.57PF MODEL |
— | 39% |
| Flemington | R4 | Cherish Me | WIN | — | $9.69PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Flemington | R6 | Highland Blaze | WIN | — | $6.89PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Doomben | R6 | Dirty Dancing | WIN | — | $5.00PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Doomben | R9 | Social Outcast | WIN | — | $5.16PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Gold Coast | R2 | Metal Man | WIN | — | $4.63PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Gold Coast | R5 | Chicago King | EW | — | $5.96PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Toowoomba | R5 | Sweet Pretender | WIN | — | $5.51PF MODEL |
— | 37% |
| Toowoomba | R6 | Madalsa | WIN | — | $5.86PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Fannie Bay | R3 | I Loverain | WIN | — | $5.87PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Fannie Bay | R6 | Dynamic Theory | WIN | — | $5.51PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Fannie Bay | R8 | Ichiban | EW | — | $6.58PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Derby | R5 | Topaz | EW | — | $6.16PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Derby | R6 | Lutz | EW | — | $6.94PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Inverell | R3 | Captain Insano | EW | — | $7.47PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Goondiwindi | R4 | Proponent | EW | — | $7.26PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Morphettville Parks | R8 | Bold Secret | WIN | — | $7.48PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
Across 1195 STAY OUT races since mid-February, our model's top-ranked horse won 15.3% of the time — roughly double the random baseline of 10–12%. This confirms the model is still finding competitive horses in these races, but we pass strategically: low confidence gap between runners, weak form data, unsuitable conditions, or insufficient edge over the market. The 40.9% win+place rate shows the horse finishing in the frame nearly half the time — useful for STAY OUT races you might want to use in exotics.
| Date | Races Skipped | Would've Won | Win Rate | Would've Placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | 58 | 6 | 10% | 14 |
| 2026-07-17 | 29 | 4 | 14% | 6 |
| 2026-07-16 | 32 | 5 | 16% | 6 |
| 2026-07-15 | 40 | 3 | 8% | 12 |
| 2026-07-14 | 17 | 3 | 18% | 5 |
| 2026-07-13 | 26 | 4 | 15% | 7 |
| 2026-07-12 | 53 | 10 | 19% | 15 |
| 2026-07-11 | 79 | 9 | 11% | 25 |
| 2026-07-10 | 40 | 9 | 23% | 10 |
| 2026-07-09 | 38 | 8 | 21% | 8 |
| 2026-07-08 | 47 | 6 | 13% | 12 |
| 2026-07-07 | 25 | 1 | 4% | 2 |
| 2026-07-06 | 19 | 1 | 5% | 5 |
| 2026-07-05 | 44 | 5 | 11% | 11 |
| 2026-07-04 | 72 | 11 | 15% | 21 |
| 2026-07-03 | 47 | 9 | 19% | 10 |
| 2026-07-02 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 8 |
| 2026-07-01 | 36 | 6 | 17% | 5 |
| 2026-06-30 | 18 | 1 | 6% | 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | 17 | 5 | 29% | 3 |
| 2026-06-28 | 57 | 9 | 16% | 18 |
| 2026-06-27 | 73 | 13 | 18% | 23 |
| 2026-06-26 | 35 | 11 | 31% | 6 |
| 2026-06-25 | 28 | 7 | 25% | 9 |
| 2026-06-24 | 29 | 7 | 24% | 5 |
| 2026-06-23 | 24 | 1 | 4% | 8 |
| 2026-06-22 | 25 | 4 | 16% | 4 |
| 2026-06-21 | 44 | 6 | 14% | 9 |
| 2026-06-20 | 74 | 13 | 18% | 21 |
| 2026-06-19 | 44 | 6 | 14% | 14 |