| Meeting | Race | Horse | Type | Price | Est. Price | Overlay | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sha Tin | R5 | Spicy Standard | WIN | — | $5.16PF MODEL |
+34% | 39% |
| Sha Tin | R8 | Endued | WIN | — | $4.67PF MODEL |
+37% | 37% |
| Sha Tin | R9 | Positive Smile | WIN | — | $4.53PF MODEL |
+46% | 36% |
| Sunshine Coast | R2 | Gagnante Enchere | WIN | — | $5.54PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Sunshine Coast | R7 | Kozak Prince | WIN | — | $4.48PF MODEL |
+38% | 38% |
| Terang | R6 | Luna Cat | WIN | — | $5.28PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Terang | R7 | Alder | WIN | — | $6.27PF MODEL |
+24% | 37% |
| Swan Hill | R3 | Hydrogen Power | WIN | — | $3.33PF MODEL |
— | 41% |
| Swan Hill | R5 | Flashlight | WIN | — | $5.06PF MODEL |
— | 41% |
| Hobart | R5 | Tideford | WIN | — | $6.57PF MODEL |
— | 38% |
| Hobart | R6 | Material Madam | WIN | — | $3.63PF MODEL |
+31% | 37% |
| Hobart | R7 | Christopher Robin | WIN | — | $2.52PF MODEL |
+79% | 42% |
| Kalgoorlie | R5 | Bondi's Son | WIN | — | $3.18PF MODEL |
+61% | 38% |
| Kalgoorlie | R6 | Chipilly | WIN | — | $2.90PF MODEL |
+91% | 38% |
| Kalgoorlie | R7 | Just Famous | WIN | — | $5.22PF MODEL |
— | 40% |
Across 1375 STAY OUT races since mid-February, our model's top-ranked horse won 16.1% of the time — roughly double the random baseline of 10–12%. This confirms the model is still finding competitive horses in these races, but we pass strategically: low confidence gap between runners, weak form data, unsuitable conditions, or insufficient edge over the market. The 45.2% win+place rate shows the horse finishing in the frame nearly half the time — useful for STAY OUT races you might want to use in exotics.
| Date | Races Skipped | Would've Won | Win Rate | Would've Placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 47 | 6 | 13% | 14 |
| 2026-04-10 | 70 | 14 | 20% | 18 |
| 2026-04-09 | 37 | 7 | 19% | 9 |
| 2026-04-08 | 35 | 8 | 23% | 10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 14 | 1 | 7% | 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | 53 | 9 | 17% | 14 |
| 2026-04-05 | 59 | 12 | 20% | 15 |
| 2026-04-04 | 102 | 13 | 13% | 28 |
| 2026-04-03 | 52 | 9 | 17% | 12 |
| 2026-04-02 | 43 | 5 | 12% | 15 |
| 2026-04-01 | 46 | 6 | 13% | 14 |
| 2026-03-31 | 20 | 4 | 20% | 7 |
| 2026-03-30 | 24 | 2 | 8% | 9 |
| 2026-03-29 | 24 | 2 | 8% | 8 |
| 2026-03-28 | 85 | 9 | 11% | 18 |
| 2026-03-27 | 52 | 4 | 8% | 20 |
| 2026-03-26 | 45 | 5 | 11% | 14 |
| 2026-03-25 | 52 | 7 | 13% | 13 |
| 2026-03-24 | 21 | 4 | 19% | 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 13 | 3 | 23% | 3 |
| 2026-03-22 | 61 | 7 | 11% | 17 |
| 2026-03-21 | 92 | 18 | 20% | 27 |
| 2026-03-20 | 49 | 9 | 18% | 22 |
| 2026-03-19 | 28 | 4 | 14% | 10 |
| 2026-03-18 | 42 | 10 | 24% | 10 |
| 2026-03-17 | 28 | 7 | 25% | 7 |
| 2026-03-16 | 6 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| 2026-03-15 | 54 | 9 | 17% | 24 |
| 2026-03-14 | 88 | 19 | 22% | 18 |
| 2026-03-13 | 33 | 7 | 21% | 16 |