| Meeting | Race | Horse | Type | Price | Est. Price | Overlay | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happy Valley | R1 | Prince Alex | EW | — | $7.61PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Happy Valley | R3 | Forza Leader | WIN | — | $8.35PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Happy Valley | R5 | Georgian Sigma | WIN | — | $9.00PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Happy Valley | R6 | Meowth | WIN | — | $8.30PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Happy Valley | R7 | Super Joy N Fun | WIN | — | $9.13PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Doomben | R4 | Glass Of Rose | WIN | — | $4.80PF MODEL |
— | 38% |
| Doomben | R6 | Easy Love | WIN | — | $6.68PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Warwick Farm | R6 | Majorian | EW | — | $6.91PF MODEL |
— | 33% |
| Warwick Farm | R7 | Hot Bandit | WIN | — | $7.40PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Sandown-Lakeside | R3 | Realika | WIN | — | $3.04PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Sandown-Lakeside | R7 | Ultra Blue | WIN | — | $5.74PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Belmont Park | R1 | Spirited Strike | WIN | — | $3.95PF MODEL |
— | 34% |
| Belmont Park | R5 | Opal Tango | EW | — | $7.93PF MODEL |
— | 35% |
| Belmont Park | R7 | Miss Ava | EW | — | $8.73PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Balaklava | R4 | Shadow Hawk | WIN | — | $8.02PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Gatton | R7 | Spiritoftheworld | EW | — | $5.46PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
| Gatton | R8 | Vacillation | EW | — | $7.11PF MODEL |
— | 36% |
| Cambridge | R2 | Spanish Lad | WIN | — | $7.08PF MODEL |
— | 32% |
Across 959 STAY OUT races since mid-February, our model's top-ranked horse won 16.4% of the time — roughly double the random baseline of 10–12%. This confirms the model is still finding competitive horses in these races, but we pass strategically: low confidence gap between runners, weak form data, unsuitable conditions, or insufficient edge over the market. The 38.8% win+place rate shows the horse finishing in the frame nearly half the time — useful for STAY OUT races you might want to use in exotics.
| Date | Races Skipped | Would've Won | Win Rate | Would've Placed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 30 | 1 | 3% | 7 |
| 2026-06-02 | 13 | 1 | 8% | 3 |
| 2026-06-01 | 33 | 3 | 9% | 9 |
| 2026-05-31 | 25 | 1 | 4% | 6 |
| 2026-05-30 | 65 | 8 | 12% | 17 |
| 2026-05-29 | 27 | 6 | 22% | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | 34 | 7 | 21% | 10 |
| 2026-05-26 | 12 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| 2026-05-25 | 10 | 3 | 30% | 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | 49 | 12 | 24% | 13 |
| 2026-05-23 | 65 | 14 | 22% | 10 |
| 2026-05-22 | 42 | 5 | 12% | 8 |
| 2026-05-21 | 34 | 6 | 18% | 5 |
| 2026-05-20 | 25 | 4 | 16% | 7 |
| 2026-05-19 | 15 | 1 | 7% | 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | 16 | 3 | 19% | 4 |
| 2026-05-17 | 48 | 6 | 13% | 14 |
| 2026-05-16 | 54 | 10 | 19% | 16 |
| 2026-05-15 | 37 | 7 | 19% | 13 |
| 2026-05-14 | 25 | 9 | 36% | 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | 39 | 6 | 15% | 8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 3 |
| 2026-05-11 | 16 | 4 | 25% | 2 |
| 2026-05-10 | 51 | 10 | 20% | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 63 | 7 | 11% | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 34 | 8 | 24% | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 24 | 3 | 13% | 5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 | 7 | 18% | 5 |
| 2026-05-05 | 19 | 3 | 16% | 3 |