Toowoomba
2026-07-18
Good
Rail: +3m Entire
Updated: 07:56 AEST
8
Races Analysed
2
Bets Found
Sweet Pretender
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Toowoomba
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- Ms K Lenton: 4W from 7 (57.1% win, 71.4% place)
- Chloe Lowe: 4W from 12 (33.3% win, 58.3% place)
- Leslie Tilley: 3W from 18 (16.7% win, 50.0% place)
- Chelsea Baker: 2W from 4 (50.0% win, 75.0% place)
- Olivia Kendal: 2W from 5 (40.0% win, 80.0% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 870m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $24500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Touch Base Leslie Tilley |
1 | 26% | $$6.54 | BEST |
| 2 | On The Cusp Kenji Yoshida |
2 | 21% | $$7.08 | DANGER |
| 3 | Zhivago Bella Stacey Callow |
6 | 19% | $$7.79 | |
| 4 | Disco Diamond Hannah Richardson |
3 | 18% | $$7.80 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
26%
Touch Base (1) J: Leslie Tilley
solid track record, flying form
2
19%
Just Jimmy (7) J: Olivia Kendal
inconsistent
3
17%
Burum Beau (8) J: Kelsey Lenton
flying form, inconsistent
4
16%
Kanna Kamui (5) J: Harrison Shaw
flying form, inconsistent
5
17%
Lady Estelle (4) J: Chloe Lowe
flying form, inconsistent
#2
6
21%
On The Cusp (2) J: Kenji Yoshida
flying form
#4
7
18%
Disco Diamond (3) J: Hannah Richardson
flying form
#3
8
19%
Zhivago Bella (6) J: Stacey Callow
flying form, inconsistent
9Hail And Harty (1)SCR
10Kiskaboom (7)SCR
11Mishani Rozay (9)SCR
12Saluki (4)SCR
R2 • 1200m • Benchmark 60;
PASS
Benchmark 60; • Prize: $22500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Upstart Lover Kelsey Lenton |
1 | 33% | $$7.89 | BEST |
| 2 | Deep Tiara Harrison Shaw |
2 | 32% | $$8.34 | DANGER |
| 3 | Royal Bombadier Gary Geran |
3 | 28% | $$9.68 | |
| 4 | Linwar Nathan Fazackerley |
11 | 28% | $$9.96 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
28%
Royal Bombadier (3) J: Gary Geran
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
2
28%
Linwar (11) J: Nathan Fazackerley
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
3Out Of Luck (7)SCR
4
26%
Purezza (5) J: Chloe Lowe
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
5Cantankerous (8)SCR
6
22%
Lowestoft (4) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
7Malarina (16)SCR
8
24%
Prince Of Synergy (9) J: Montanna Savva
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#1
9
33%
Upstart Lover (1) J: Kelsey Lenton
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
10
23%
Anyway You Want It (10) J: Olivia Kendal
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
11Atomic Selfie (4)SCR
#2
12
32%
Deep Tiara (2) J: Harrison Shaw
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
13
17%
Merchant Lady (8) J: Kenji Yoshida
proven at distance, top jockey
14
22%
Skieda (7) J: Skye Bogenhuber
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
15
23%
Change The Deel (6) J: Dan Mc Gillivray
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
16Apparate (9)SCR
R3 • 1050m • Benchmark 70;
PASS
Benchmark 70; • Prize: $22500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thundering Soul Chloe Lowe |
1 | 29% | $$8.46 | BEST |
| 2 | Butt Heads Montanna Savva |
8 | 29% | $$9.25 | DANGER |
| 3 | Hidden Nugget Nozi Tomizawa |
5 | 27% | $$9.38 | |
| 4 | King Jester Gary Geran |
3 | 27% | $$10.27 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1Gitalong (13)SCR
2
23%
Enterprise Lucia (4) J: Dan Mc Gillivray
top jockey
#4
3
27%
King Jester (3) J: Gary Geran
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
#1
4
29%
Thundering Soul (1) J: Chloe Lowe
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
5
24%
Jacka Stands Alone (10) J: Leslie Tilley
track specialist, in good form, quality stable
#3
6
27%
Hidden Nugget (5) J: Nozi Tomizawa
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
7
22%
Rothgo (11) J: Hannah Richardson
track specialist, in good form, proven at level
8
25%
Jemeldi (2) J: Kenji Yoshida
suited to trip, class edge, top jockey
9
23%
Za Hidden Dragon (6) J: Scott Sheargold
proven at distance
10Kingsland (11)SCR
#2
11
29%
Butt Heads (8) J: Montanna Savva
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
12
19%
Thats Archies Girl (9) J: Kelsey Lenton
track specialist, in good form, proven at level, top jockey
13
21%
Hard Landing (7) J: Olivia Kendal
track specialist, class edge, top jockey, quality stable
R4 • 1000m • Benchmark 60;
PASS
Benchmark 60; • Prize: $22500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I Can Help Leslie Tilley |
1 | 30% | $$6.60 | BEST |
| 2 | Sleepy Joe Harrison Shaw |
7 | 28% | $$7.75 | DANGER |
| 3 | I'm Lucky Two Olivia Kendal |
2 | 28% | $$7.92 | |
| 4 | Spiritoftheworld Fiona Sandkuhl |
9 | 28% | $$8.11 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
30%
I Can Help (1) J: Leslie Tilley
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
2
23%
Jeans (8) J: Nozi Tomizawa
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
3
28%
Sleepy Joe (7) J: Harrison Shaw
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
4
28%
I'm Lucky Two (2) J: Olivia Kendal
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
5
16%
Brutal Glory (6) J: Nathan Fazackerley
quality stable
6Perle De Chocolat (6)SCR
7
16%
Stout Hearted (3) J: Chloe Lowe
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
8
26%
Shahar (5) J: Kelsey Lenton
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#4
9
28%
Spiritoftheworld (9) J: Fiona Sandkuhl
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10Tassortium (10)SCR
11
21%
Lady Willpower (4) J: Micheal Hellyer
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
R5 • 1640m • Benchmark 60;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 60; • Prize: $22500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweet Pretender Harrison Shaw |
3 | 37% | $$5.51 | BEST |
| 2 | Don't Stop Me Now Olivia Kendal |
2 | 29% | $$7.54 | DANGER |
| 3 | Great Aspirations McKenzie Apel |
5 | 23% | $$9.05 | |
| 4 | Power Of Success Leslie Tilley |
7 | 26% | $$9.25 |
EACH WAYTab 8 Sweet Pretender (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
23%
Great Aspirations (5) J: McKenzie Apel
proven at distance, top jockey
2
24%
Data Leak (1) J: Skye Bogenhuber
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
#4
3
26%
Power Of Success (7) J: Leslie Tilley
track specialist, proven at distance
4Need For Spieth (8)SCR
5
24%
Switchblade (9) J: Nathan Fazackerley
track specialist, quality stable
6
18%
The Cops (4) J: Kelsey Lenton
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
7
19%
All Black (8) J: Kenji Yoshida
top jockey
#1
8
37%
Sweet Pretender (3) J: Harrison Shaw
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
#2
9
29%
Don't Stop Me Now (2) J: Olivia Kendal
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
21%
Dubble Hussle (6) J:
proven at distance
11Imarealamerican (1)SCR
R6 • 1640m • Benchmark 60;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 60; • Prize: $22500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madalsa Chloe Lowe |
1 | 36% | $$5.86 | BEST |
| 2 | Coney Island Baby Harrison Shaw |
9 | 30% | $$7.08 | DANGER |
| 3 | Talleyrand Kelsey Lenton |
4 | 26% | $$8.50 | |
| 4 | Jorum Montanna Savva |
2 | 24% | $$9.41 |
EACH WAYTab 1 Madalsa (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
36%
Madalsa (1) J: Chloe Lowe
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level
2
24%
Mister Selfie (5) J: Dan Mc Gillivray
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
3
30%
Coney Island Baby (9) J: Harrison Shaw
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level
4
22%
Blumstien (8) J: Leslie Tilley
track specialist, suited to trip
#3
5
26%
Talleyrand (4) J: Kelsey Lenton
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
25%
Good Philly (3) J: Olivia Kendal
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
7
17%
Caitlin (7) J: Micheal Hellyer
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
20%
Lord Protector (6) J: Wayne O'Connell
top jockey
#4
9
24%
Jorum (2) J: Montanna Savva
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10Planned Encounter (3)SCR
11Livewire Lass (4)SCR
R7 • 1100m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $24500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shes A Belle Kenji Yoshida |
6 | 32% | $$6.83 | BEST |
| 2 | Nasiron Hannah Richardson |
4 | 32% | $$6.99 | DANGER |
| 3 | That's A Beauty Kelsey Lenton |
3 | 25% | $$8.90 | |
| 4 | Flirtatious Lass Nozi Tomizawa |
10 | 20% | $$9.62 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
16%
Spirit Of Riverton (9) J: Bailey Wheeler
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
2Dracarian (12)SCR
3
11%
Lili Anna (5) J: Nathan Fazackerley
flying form, quality stable, inconsistent
4
18%
Mandriana (2) J: Chloe Lowe
flying form, top jockey
5
13%
Enterprise Aloisia (1) J: Gary Geran
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
#4
6
20%
Flirtatious Lass (10) J: Nozi Tomizawa
track specialist, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
7Divinelle (13)SCR
8
22%
Enterprise Jamayka (7) J: Dan Mc Gillivray
in good form, top jockey
9
21%
Exceptional Rupert (8) J: Scott Sheargold
quality stable, inconsistent
10Mystic Ascot (10)SCR
11Reign Of Dame (13)SCR
#1
12
32%
Shes A Belle (6) J: Kenji Yoshida
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
13
25%
That's A Beauty (3) J: Kelsey Lenton
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
14Mover And Shaker (10)SCR
#2
15
32%
Nasiron (4) J: Hannah Richardson
track specialist, proven at distance
R8 • 1920m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $24500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flirting With Fire Gary Geran |
5 | 33% | $$8.80 | BEST |
| 2 | Josephine Of Tuffy Nozi Tomizawa |
9 | 29% | $$9.59 | DANGER |
| 3 | I Drove All Night Leslie Tilley |
6 | 26% | $$11.14 | |
| 4 | Spring Rain Nathan Fazackerley |
4 | 24% | $$11.34 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
Yelarbon Lad (1) J: Paul Hamblin
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
2
24%
Acts Alone (7) J: Harrison Shaw
top jockey, quality stable
3
19%
Bon Ichi (11) J: Kenji Yoshida
top jockey
4
20%
Mr Racing (2) J: Chloe Lowe
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
5
25%
Waves Of Emocean (12) J: Scott Sheargold
proven at distance, quality stable
#1
6
33%
Flirting With Fire (5) J: Gary Geran
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
7Mister Blaze (15)SCR
#3
8
26%
I Drove All Night (6) J: Leslie Tilley
suited to trip, inconsistent
9
21%
It's Ok (8) J: Bailey Wheeler
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
10
24%
Spring Rain (4) J: Nathan Fazackerley
inconsistent
#2
11
29%
Josephine Of Tuffy (9) J: Nozi Tomizawa
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
12
21%
Champagne Queen (3) J: Dan Mc Gillivray
top jockey
13
22%
Yes Is The Answer (10) J: Kelsey Lenton
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
14Picka Poppy (10)SCR
15O'reilly's Shout (13)SCR
16Concador (9)SCR
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R5:
Tab 8 Sweet Pretender (Barrier 3)
Model: $5.51
1 units
Model: $5.51
1 units
R6:
Tab 1 Madalsa (Barrier 1)
Model: $5.86
1 units
Model: $5.86
1 units
Total Stake: 2.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 18/07/2026, 7:56:37 am