Te Aroha

2026-09-03

Good Rail: Out 4m from 1400m-1000m, Remainder out 8m

Updated: 15:06 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Because

Best Bet

None

Best Value

99%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Te Aroha

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

H A Mc Neill: 3W from 8 (37.5% win, 50.0% place)
Billy Marshall: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 66.7% place)
E J Farr: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 33.3% place)
C J Wiles: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 33.3% place)
N S Parmar: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 100.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 3100m • Maiden Hurdle;

PASS

Maiden Hurdle; • Prize: $20000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Rosina Corey Wiles	2	34%	$$5.34	BEST
2	Heza Warrior Bella Oliver	4	28%	$$7.44	DANGER
3	Four Square Pete Kylan Wiles	8	22%	$$8.53
4	Outovstock Jay Kozaczek	5	22%	$$8.93

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Heza Warrior (4) J: Bella Oliver

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable

28%

#3 2

Four Square Pete (8) J: Kylan Wiles

quality stable

22%

Sweet Taboo (6) J: Michael Roustoby

proven at distance, form a concern, inconsistent

21%

Doctor Livingstone (9) J: Joshua Parker

inconsistent

18%

Mister Roquette (3) J: Stephan Karnicnik

looking for others

20%

#4 6

Outovstock (5) J: Jay Kozaczek

class edge, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

Rex (1) J: Billy Marshall

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

16%

Our Easy Street (7) J: Hamish Mc Neill

place chance

21%

#1 9

Rosina (2) J: Corey Wiles

solid track record, in good form

34%

R2 • 3100m • Hurdle;

PASS

Hurdle; • Prize: $60000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Happy Star Kylan Wiles	4	28%	$$5.27	BEST
2	Roc Up Ralph Hamish Mc Neill	5	22%	$$6.07	DANGER
3	Dictation Jay Kozaczek	2	18%	$$6.83
4	The Belvoir Joshua Parker	6	23%	$$6.90

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Happy Star (4) J: Kylan Wiles

proven at distance, flying form, class edge, quality stable

28%

#3 2

Dictation (2) J: Jay Kozaczek

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

18%

#2 3

Roc Up Ralph (5) J: Hamish Mc Neill

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

22%

Squire (3) J: Luca Remondet

proven at distance

19%

Jake (1) J: Corey Wiles

track specialist, proven at distance

22%

#4 6

The Belvoir (6) J: Joshua Parker

suited to trip, in good form, quality stable

23%

Juwala (7) J: Billy Marshall

proven at distance, quality stable

19%

R3 • 2200m • Benchmark 65;

Low Value Bet

Benchmark 65; • Prize: $40000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Because Lucy Klee	5	34%	$$8.03	BEST
2	Uhtred Nick Smith	6	23%	$$10.97	DANGER
3	Star Warrior Skye du Plessis	13	26%	$$11.31
4	Our Jasmine Michelle Northcott	12	25%	$$12.05

EACH WAYTab 4 Because (0.25 unit win + 0.25 unit place)0.5 units

Full Field Analysis

1In A Pickle (7)SCR

The Bossman (11) J: Scotty Macnab

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

All That I Am (8) J: Caydence Patel

proven at distance, in good form

19%

#1 4

Because (5) J: Lucy Klee

solid track record, proven at distance, proven at level

34%

Sidetrack (1) J: Monique Dey

in good form, quality stable

18%

Air Dancer (2) J: Alexandra Reed

looking for others

20%

Raajoices (3) J: Charlie Wallace-Pram

proven at distance, proven at level, quality stable

25%

#3 8

Star Warrior (13) J: Skye du Plessis

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable

26%

Opera Belle (10) J: Lisa Kennedy

proven at distance

22%

#4 10

Our Jasmine (12) J: Michelle Northcott

proven at distance

25%

Impaired Vision (7) J: Olivia Helagi

form a concern, inconsistent

18%

Little Darling (9) J: A E Taiaroa

solid track record, quality stable

20%

#2 13

Uhtred (6) J: Nick Smith

solid track record, proven at distance, inconsistent

23%

Middle Khan (4) J: Tyler Porteous

form a concern, quality stable

19%

15Concise (15)SCR

R4 • 3600m • Maiden Steeple;

PASS

Maiden Steeple; • Prize: $20000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Dorothy's Daughter Hamish Mc Neill	7	23%	$$5.77	BEST
2	Mont Ventoux Nick Downs	4	28%	$$5.78	DANGER
3	The Republican Kylan Wiles	2	24%	$$6.44
4	Taika Joshua Parker	1	22%	$$6.65

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Zac Flash (5) J: Billy Marshall

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable

25%

#2 2

Mont Ventoux (4) J: Nick Downs

track specialist, in good form, class edge

28%

Metallo (6) J: Jay Kozaczek

solid track record, inconsistent

17%

#4 4

Taika (1) J: Joshua Parker

track specialist, quality stable

22%

#3 5

The Republican (2) J: Kylan Wiles

solid track record, in good form, quality stable

24%

#1 6

Dorothy's Daughter (7) J: Hamish Mc Neill

solid track record, in good form, quality stable

23%

Rocem (3) J: Luca Remondet

looking for others

17%

R5 • 1400m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Requisite Hayley Hassman	13	27%	$$9.98	BEST
2	Kalgarry Ally Samantha Collett	4	23%	$$10.67	DANGER
3	Aim Up Craig Grylls	7	25%	$$11.55
4	Dragonstone Kyle Wilson-Taylor	9	27%	$$11.99

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#4 1

Dragonstone (9) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor

in good form

27%

Hit The Gas (12) J: George Rooke

quality stable

24%

#1 3

Requisite (13) J: Hayley Hassman

proven at distance

27%

#3 4

Aim Up (7) J: Craig Grylls

in good form, inconsistent

25%

Kinross (5) J:

in good form, inconsistent

22%

Divider (6) J: Joe Nishizuka

form a concern, inconsistent

17%

Highflying Ace (8) J: Jasmine Fawcett

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

Rock On Ozzy (2) J: A Lawson-Carroll

inconsistent

22%

#2 9

Kalgarry Ally (4) J: Samantha Collett

in good form, quality stable

23%

10Long Island (12)SCR

Able Dancer (1) J: Erin M Leighton

inconsistent

24%

Lady Meera (3) J: Lynsey Satherley

in good form, inconsistent

22%

Bella Fino (10) J: Matthew Cartwright

form a concern, inconsistent

Millennium Magic (11) J: Ethan Jones

quality stable, inconsistent

25%

R6 • 4300m • Steeple;

PASS

Steeple; • Prize: $75000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Nedwin Corey Wiles	8	30%	$$6.19	BEST
2	Duke Of Plumpton Hamish Mc Neill	7	22%	$$7.55	DANGER
3	Brucie Billy Marshall	9	23%	$$8.18
4	Smug Michael Roustoby	1	23%	$$8.72

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Nedwin (8) J: Corey Wiles

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

30%

#3 2

Brucie (9) J: Billy Marshall

track specialist, in good form

23%

#4 3

Smug (1) J: Michael Roustoby

in good form, quality stable

23%

Prince Turbo (4) J: Kylan Wiles

in good form

18%

5Jakama Krystal (8)SCR

Auld Jock (2) J: Luca Remondet

inconsistent

23%

#2 7

Duke Of Plumpton (7) J: Hamish Mc Neill

track specialist, in good form

22%

Hey Hey Hey (6) J: Joshua Parker

looking for others

19%

Zee Heights (3) J: Bella Oliver

track specialist

17%

Sound Of Silence (5) J: Jay Kozaczek

track specialist, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

R7 • 1150m • Benchmark 75;

PASS

Benchmark 75; • Prize: $40000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Chatelle Rose Joe Doyle	7	31%	$$10.50	BEST
2	Moneypenny Sam McNab	8	27%	$$11.90	DANGER
3	Jelly Roll Tom Wigram	4	24%	$$13.25
4	Rocking Warren Kennedy	10	22%	$$13.45

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Takeshi (12) J: Abhay Seesa

place chance

22%

#2 2

Moneypenny (8) J: Sam McNab

in good form, quality stable

27%

#1 3

Chatelle Rose (7) J: Joe Doyle

in good form, proven at level, quality stable

31%

#4 4

Rocking (10) J: Warren Kennedy

track specialist, in good form

22%

Landlock (6) J: Samantha Collett

class edge, quality stable

21%

Espadas (14) J: Craig Grylls

proven at level

22%

Purosangue (5) J: Masahiro Hashizume

flying form

21%

French Doll (2) J: Matthew Cartwright

quality stable

23%

Hey Hey Baby (1) J: Rihaan Goyaram

solid track record, in good form

19%

Digger (13) J: Lynsey Satherley

in good form, class edge

18%

Bolli Belle (3) J: Michael Mc Nab

flying form

18%

Gin And Bare It (9) J: Joe Nishizuka

flying form

17%

#3 13

Jelly Roll (4) J: Tom Wigram

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

24%

Pollyisacracker (11) J: Sienna Brown

quality stable

18%

R8 • 1600m • Open;

PASS

Open; • Prize: $50000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Solidify Matthew Cartwright	7	29%	$$6.58	BEST
2	Khan Hunter Matthew Cameron	6	25%	$$6.74	DANGER
3	Principled Tom Wigram	5	28%	$$6.97
4	Overrated George Rooke	2	23%	$$7.73

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Joshua Brown (4) J: Lynsey Satherley

suited to trip, class edge, quality stable

23%

#2 2

Khan Hunter (6) J: Matthew Cameron

class edge

25%

Rudyard (8) J: Jasmine Fawcett

proven at distance, class edge, quality stable

26%

#1 4

Solidify (7) J: Matthew Cartwright

proven at distance, class edge

29%

#4 5

Overrated (2) J: George Rooke

proven at distance

23%

#3 6

Principled (5) J: Tom Wigram

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

28%

She'll Be Right (3) J: Courtney Barnes

solid track record

20%

Mister Pucci (1) J: Joe Nishizuka

proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent

19%

R9 • 1400m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Must Bee Hayley Hassman	4	31%	$$9.59	BEST
2	Hip Flask Sam McNab	1	30%	$$9.63	DANGER
3	Sally Gee Ashlee Strawbridge	3	26%	$$11.40
4	Super Patch Courtney Barnes	6	21%	$$11.42

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Hip Flask (1) J: Sam McNab

proven at distance, flying form

30%

Magee (7) J: Sienna Brown

suited to trip, inconsistent

24%

#4 3

Super Patch (6) J: Courtney Barnes

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

21%

Bacana (5) J: Jasmine Fawcett

in good form, inconsistent

24%

Papparazzi (10) J: George Rooke

inconsistent

26%

Iron Throne (9) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor

inconsistent

21%

President Fir (8) J: Erin M Leighton

form a concern, inconsistent

15%

Ghost In Th'castle (2) J: Lynsey Satherley

form a concern, inconsistent

16%

King Of The Jungle (13) J: Tom Wigram

form a concern, inconsistent

15%

#1 10

Must Bee (4) J: Hayley Hassman

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form

31%

Freya (11) J: Joe Nishizuka

quality stable, inconsistent

19%

Luella (12) J: Joe Doyle

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

#3 13

Sally Gee (3) J: Ashlee Strawbridge

track specialist, flying form

26%

R10 • 1400m • Benchmark 65;

PASS

Benchmark 65; • Prize: $40000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Golden Point A Lawson-Carroll	3	29%	$$14.91	BEST
2	Withallmygrace Masahiro Hashizume	16	23%	$$16.90	DANGER
3	She Suits Herself Cooper Stumbles	10	25%	$$17.32
4	Sally Sienna Brown	14	27%	$$17.70

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Golden Point (3) J: A Lawson-Carroll

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

29%

Yokozuna (17) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor

place chance

22%

Bell Time Potae (2) J: Ashlee Strawbridge

looking for others

18%

Ocean Road (18) J: Sam McNab

proven at distance, quality stable

23%

Girlzgirlzgirlz (13) J: Tom Wigram

flying form

21%

Elle Mcfab (6) J: Warren Kennedy

quality stable

21%

#3 7

She Suits Herself (10) J: Cooper Stumbles

track specialist, in good form

25%

She'll Be Right (3) J: Courtney Barnes

solid track record

24%

She's A Surprise (5) J: Joe Doyle

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

18%

Vadanova (4) J: Hayley Hassman

proven at distance

24%

#2 10

Withallmygrace (16) J: Masahiro Hashizume

track specialist, in good form, quality stable

23%

Gracetheace (19) J: George Rooke

proven at distance, quality stable

24%

Shuffle The Pack (12) J: Michael Mc Nab

proven at distance, in good form

26%

Koro's Princess (7) J:

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

24%

#4 14

Sally (14) J: Sienna Brown

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

27%

Smart Tip (15) J:

solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable

27%

Ridgeview Vicky (8) J:

solid track record, quality stable

22%

King William (11) J:

proven at distance

26%

Highly Anticipated (1) J:

track specialist, proven at distance, inconsistent

24%

19Robbie Burns (14)SCR

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

No confident bets for this meeting

Total Stake: 0.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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