Te Aroha
NZ • 2026-06-04
Good
Rail: Out 6m
Updated: 07:16 AEST
6
Races Analysed
0
Bets Found
Desert Mystic
Best Bet
None
Best Value
98%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Te Aroha
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- J J Fawcett: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 33.3% place)
- C J Grylls: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 33.3% place)
- Corentin Berge: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 50.0% place)
- Abhay Sessa: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 100.0% place)
- J Nishizuka: 1W from 5 (20.0% win, 40.0% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1600m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greek Anthology Masahiro Hashizume |
7 | 30% | $$10.21 | BEST |
| 2 | G'day Goldie Matthew Cartwright |
3 | 33% | $$10.66 | DANGER |
| 3 | Long Island |
4 | 23% | $$14.16 | |
| 4 | Azamira Rihaan Goyaram |
6 | 20% | $$14.54 |
- Placed 2nd of 12 last start (0.8L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
30%
Greek Anthology (7) J: Masahiro Hashizume
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
2
24%
Malleable (12) J: Michael Mc Nab
top jockey
3
24%
The Mailman (16) J: George Rooke
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
4
17%
Artful Dodger (15) J: Sam McNab
in good form, quality stable, inconsistent
5
16%
Jamestown (10) J: Hayley Hassman
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
6
20%
Sweet Taboo (14) J: Ashlee Strawbridge
looking for others
#2
7
33%
G'day Goldie (3) J: Matthew Cartwright
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
23%
Hold Me Tight (8) J: A Lawson-Carroll
in good form, top jockey, inconsistent
9
19%
Lady Charlton (1) J: Jack Taplin
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
10
16%
Final Reason (13) J: Joe Nishizuka
in good form, top jockey, inconsistent
11
23%
Linious (11) J: Elen Nicholas
inconsistent
#4
12
20%
Azamira (6) J: Rihaan Goyaram
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
13
17%
Heavenly Lady (5) J: Jasmine Fawcett
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
14
Morning Light (9) J:
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
15
23%
Long Island (4) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
16
20%
Goosebumps (2) J:
solid track record, in good form
R2 • 1600m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Jasmine Fawcett |
6 | 29% | $$11.49 | BEST |
| 2 | Sweet Torquer Sam McNab |
12 | 25% | $$11.52 | DANGER |
| 3 | Long Island Masahiro Hashizume |
7 | 26% | $$12.53 | |
| 4 | Dido Belle A Lawson-Carroll |
3 | 23% | $$13.55 |
- Well beaten last start (7th, 7.3L) — needs significant improvement.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
22%
Beau Miller (1) J: Jack Taplin
top jockey, inconsistent
2
23%
Laser Beam (2) J: Erin M Leighton
top jockey
#1
3
29%
Tampa (6) J: Jasmine Fawcett
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
4
27%
Tartan Shocka (13) J: Lynsey Satherley
top jockey, inconsistent
5
12%
Academy (4) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
6
Asvakan (8) J: Warren Kennedy
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
7
23%
Dun Talkin' (11) J: Matthew Cartwright
proven at distance, top jockey
8
11%
Lamilago (15) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
9
23%
Thehorsecalleddave (5) J:
track specialist, quality stable
#2
10
25%
Sweet Torquer (12) J: Sam McNab
in good form, quality stable
11
20%
Aixoise (14) J: George Rooke
in good form, top jockey
12
22%
Go Joanna (10) J: Elen Nicholas
proven at distance, quality stable
13
26%
Galway Lass (16) J: Ashlee Strawbridge
inconsistent
#4
14
23%
Dido Belle (3) J: A Lawson-Carroll
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
15
26%
Long Island (7) J: Masahiro Hashizume
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
16
20%
Goosebumps (9) J:
solid track record, in good form
R3 • 1600m • Benchmark 75;12:00
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 75; • Prize: $35000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desert Mystic |
8 | 34% | $$13.95 | BEST |
| 2 | Loch Katrine Michael Mc Nab |
3 | 31% | $$15.25 | DANGER |
| 3 | Up The Anti |
18 | 30% | $$16.55 | |
| 4 | Quick Fire Hyeontaek Oh |
14 | 23% | $$16.91 |
- Missed last but has won 1 of past 5 (incl. Hawera).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
WINTab 4 Desert Mystic0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
25%
Major Major (15) J: Sam McNab
proven at distance, proven at level, quality stable
#4
2
23%
Quick Fire (14) J: Hyeontaek Oh
track specialist, proven at distance, proven at level, top jockey
3
24%
Above The Clouds (4) J: Hayley Hassman
proven at distance, proven at level
#1
4
34%
Desert Mystic (8) J:
track specialist, proven at distance, proven at level, quality stable
5
20%
King Khan (11) J: Jasmine Fawcett
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
6
27%
Zanzibar (1) J: Rihaan Goyaram
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
7
27%
Procella (12) J: Matthew Cartwright
solid track record, proven at distance, proven at level, top jockey
8
27%
Nancy She Wrote (19) J: Courtney Barnes
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey
9
22%
War Queen (10) J: Craig Grylls
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
10
21%
Principled (17) J: Corentin Berge
proven at distance, quality stable
#2
11
31%
Loch Katrine (3) J: Michael Mc Nab
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey
12
23%
Bassoroc (16) J: George Rooke
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
13
21%
Artamos (2) J: Joe Nishizuka
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
14
24%
Transaction (6) J: Masahiro Hashizume
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
15
21%
Play It Again Sam (5) J:
quality stable
16
23%
The Nomad (9) J:
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
17
16%
Muse (13) J:
proven at distance
#3
18
30%
Up The Anti (18) J:
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, quality stable
19
21%
What A Yarn (20) J:
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
20
16%
Mister Roquette (7) J:
looking for others
R4 • 1150m • Restricted 60;12:00
PASS
Restricted 60; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blusweyhooves Rihaan Goyaram |
4 | 23% | $$9.67 | BEST |
| 2 | Illuminated Miss |
9 | 23% | $$10.35 | DANGER |
| 3 | Smart Tip Ashlee Strawbridge |
7 | 26% | $$10.37 | |
| 4 | Silkdegrees |
12 | 27% | $$10.63 |
- Missed last but has won 1 of past 5 (incl. Ruakaka).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
Jelly Roll (2) J: Michael Mc Nab
top jockey, quality stable
2
23%
Zeffert (6) J: Lynsey Satherley
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
3
20%
Timetoplaythegame (3) J: Warren Kennedy
top jockey, quality stable
#3
4
26%
Smart Tip (7) J: Ashlee Strawbridge
track specialist, quality stable
#2
5
23%
Illuminated Miss (9) J:
quality stable
6
23%
Luminance (10) J: Craig Grylls
proven at level, top jockey
#1
7
23%
Blusweyhooves (4) J: Rihaan Goyaram
top jockey
8
19%
Return Message (11) J:
quality stable
#4
9
27%
Silkdegrees (12) J:
quality stable
10
25%
Koro's Princess (8) J:
place chance
11
13%
I'm No Angel (1) J: Courtney Barnes
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
12
19%
La Reina (5) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
R5 • 1150m • Open;12:00
PASS
Open; • Prize: $40000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaimai Queen Rihaan Goyaram |
9 | 31% | $$8.65 | BEST |
| 2 | Honey Badger Michael Mc Nab |
7 | 30% | $$9.12 | DANGER |
| 3 | Cleat |
3 | 24% | $$11.19 | |
| 4 | Dusty Road Sam McNab |
8 | 23% | $$11.35 |
- Missed last but has won 1 of past 5 (incl. Te Rapa).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1150m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#4
1
23%
Dusty Road (8) J: Sam McNab
track specialist, class edge
2
22%
Force Of Nature (2) J: Craig Grylls
in good form, proven at level, top jockey, quality stable
#3
3
24%
Cleat (3) J:
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form
4
21%
Pokuru Gold (5) J: Hayley Hassman
in good form, quality stable
5
23%
Gospodin (1) J: Ashlee Strawbridge
track specialist, class edge, quality stable
6
15%
Caitlyns Wish (11) J:
looking for others
7
21%
Grande Gallo (10) J:
class edge, quality stable
#2
8
30%
Honey Badger (7) J: Michael Mc Nab
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
9
20%
Lucullan (11) J: George Rooke
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
10
31%
Kaimai Queen (9) J: Rihaan Goyaram
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level
11
21%
Diomedes (4) J: A Lawson-Carroll
track specialist, top jockey
12
18%
Florin (6) J: Elen Nicholas
in good form, quality stable
R6 • 2200m • Benchmark 75;12:00
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 75; • Prize: $35000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Up The Anti |
1 | 35% | $$9.74 | BEST |
| 2 | Dancin In The Dark Michael Mc Nab |
5 | 25% | $$12.60 | DANGER |
| 3 | Our Easy Street |
12 | 25% | $$13.23 | |
| 4 | Boxmoss Warren Kennedy |
13 | 25% | $$14.59 |
- Placed 2nd of 13 last start (1.7L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Stepping to 2200m for the first time — distance query.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
LONE SPEED
WINTab 1 Up The Anti0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
35%
Up The Anti (1) J:
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, quality stable
2
25%
Awhina (9) J:
in good form, quality stable
#2
3
25%
Dancin In The Dark (5) J: Michael Mc Nab
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
4
23%
Titled (8) J:
proven at distance, class edge
#4
5
25%
Boxmoss (13) J: Warren Kennedy
top jockey, quality stable
6
15%
Mister Roquette (4) J:
looking for others
7
22%
Whatthemansaw (15) J:
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
8
24%
In A Pickle (10) J: Jasmine Fawcett
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
9
22%
Charlbury (3) J: Ethan Jones
class edge, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
10
19%
Pick Of The Litter (11) J:
quality stable
11
20%
Muscovado (6) J: Elen Nicholas
quality stable
12
22%
Mulan Ardeche (16) J: George Rooke
track specialist, in good form, top jockey
#3
13
25%
Our Easy Street (12) J:
solid track record, proven at distance, quality stable
14
25%
Te Atatu Memphis (2) J: Joe Nishizuka
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
15
15%
Our Jasmine (14) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
16
17%
Goosebumps (7) J:
solid track record, in good form
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
No confident bets for this meeting
Total Stake: 0.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 03/06/2026, 7:16:25 am