Swan Hill
VIC • 2026-04-12
Good
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Updated: 08:39 AEST
7
Races Analysed
2
Bets Found
Hydrogen Power
Best Bet
None
Best Value
97%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Swan Hill
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- D Yendall: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 66.7% place)
- Nathan Punch: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)
- H Coffey: 0W from 6 (0.0% win, 50.0% place)
- Neil Farley: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 66.7% place)
- Logan McNeil: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 33.3% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 975m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hegely Lachlan King |
5 | 43% | $$5.35 | BEST |
| 2 | Gunz Chelsea Jokic |
1 | 32% | $$5.08 | DANGER |
| 3 | Queen Caves Cassidy Hill |
6 | 32% | $$14.85 | |
| 4 | She's Elusive Sarah Field |
3 | 22% | $$28.12 |
- Finished 6th last start, 2.9L off the winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 975m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
14%
Bad Blood (8) J:
flying form, quality stable
#2
2
32%
Gunz (1) J: Chelsea Jokic
proven at distance, flying form
3
14%
Kgalagadi (8) J: Liam Riordan
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
4
Meet Me At The Bar (2) J: Cian Macredmond
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
5
18%
Soviet Strike (9) J: Ryan Hurdle
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
6
32%
Queen Caves (6) J: Cassidy Hill
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#4
7
22%
She's Elusive (3) J: Sarah Field
quality stable
#1
8
43%
Hegely (5) J: Lachlan King
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
9
19%
Immortal Truth (7) J: Eoin Walsh
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
10
18%
Wanted Enuff (4) J: Will Gordon
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R2 • 1300m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Lady Venus Nadia Daniels |
5 | 29% | $$6.04 | BEST |
| 2 | Alvin Chelsea Jokic |
3 | 30% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Miss Solar Hart Chelsea Taylor |
12 | 29% | N/A | |
| 4 | He's A Hustler Harry Coffey |
4 | 25% | $$6.43 |
- Placed 3rd of 8 last start (0.6L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
30%
Alvin (3) J: Chelsea Jokic
track specialist, proven at distance
2
20%
Belgium Lad (10) J: Ryan Hurdle
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
3
24%
More Give It (15) J: Brad Rawiller
in good form, top jockey
4
24%
Si Si Sir (7) J: Sarah Field
quality stable
#4
5
25%
He's A Hustler (4) J: Harry Coffey
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
6
19%
Infinite Game (8) J: Milos Bunjevac
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
7
19%
Let Rip Rod (9) J: Eoin Walsh
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
8
29%
Cheers To Us (1) J: Cassidy Hill
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
9
Juno's Song (9) J: Cian Macredmond
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
10
29%
Miss Solar Hart (12) J: Chelsea Taylor
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#1
11
29%
The Lady Venus (5) J: Nadia Daniels
top jockey, quality stable
12
26%
Tomorrows Prospect (6) J: Logan McNeil
in good form, quality stable
13
26%
Desert Falcon (5) J: Will Gordon
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
14
11%
Donvilla D'or (11) J: Makisha Salter
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
15
27%
Inarticulate (2) J: Nadia Daniels
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R3 • 1600m • Benchmark 56;12:00
Med Value Bet
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hydrogen Power Stacey Metcalfe |
1 | 41% | $$3.33 | BEST |
| 2 | Positivo Brad Rawiller |
2 | 32% | $$2.36 | DANGER |
| 3 | Tarakash Cian Macredmond |
5 | 29% | $$7.47 | |
| 4 | Asawin Chelsea Taylor |
3 | 23% | $$25.73 |
- Placed 3rd of 8 last start (2.5L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
WIN#3 Hydrogen Power1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
32%
Positivo (2) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#4
2
23%
Asawin (3) J: Chelsea Taylor
top jockey, quality stable
#1
3
41%
Hydrogen Power (1) J: Stacey Metcalfe
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
17%
She's Stargazing (4) J: Will Gordon
top jockey, quality stable
5
21%
Catch A Break (3) J: Nadia Daniels
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
6
29%
Tarakash (5) J: Cian Macredmond
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
7
20%
Red Sparks (6) J: Milos Bunjevac
top jockey, inconsistent
8
18%
Fiorente Spritz (3) J: Sarah Field
suited to trip, inconsistent
Exotics
Quinella: Hydrogen Power, Positivo
Exacta: Hydrogen Power / Positivo, Tarakash
Trifecta: Box: Hydrogen Power, Positivo, Tarakash, Asawin
First 4: Box: Hydrogen Power, Positivo, Tarakash, Asawin, Catch A Break
R4 • 1600m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egyptian Thorn Harry Coffey |
1 | 27% | $$5.44 | BEST |
| 2 | Speedometer Nathan Punch |
4 | 23% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Zoudeadly Lachlan King |
9 | 29% | $$8.42 | |
| 4 | Romuald Ryan Hurdle |
5 | 26% | $$5.45 |
- Placed 2nd of 9 last start (0.3L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Stepping to 1600m for the first time — distance query.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
26%
Brutalrule (13) J: Cian Macredmond
proven at distance, top jockey
2
25%
Fox Force (16) J: Sarah Field
quality stable, inconsistent
#4
3
26%
Romuald (5) J: Ryan Hurdle
top jockey, quality stable
4
18%
And I Am (10) J: Cian Macredmond
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#1
5
27%
Egyptian Thorn (1) J: Harry Coffey
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
6
Kings Reflection (12) J: Will Gordon
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
7
23%
Saltillo (11) J: Eoin Walsh
in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
8
23%
Speedometer (4) J: Nathan Punch
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
9
17%
Spicy Apple (7) J: Brad Rawiller
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
10
29%
Zoudeadly (9) J: Lachlan King
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
21%
Eminent Ella (8) J: Logan McNeil
in good form
12
26%
Miss Trombari (6) J: Milos Bunjevac
top jockey, inconsistent
13
16%
Crush Puppy (13) J:
in good form, inconsistent
14
25%
Half Scotch (3) J: Liam Riordan
in good form, top jockey
15
25%
Triagonal (14) J: Dylan Dean
top jockey, inconsistent
16
25%
Foxiet (2) J: Chelsea Taylor
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R5 • 2400m • Benchmark 56;12:00
Med Value Bet
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flashlight Brad Rawiller |
6 | 41% | $$5.06 | BEST |
| 2 | Duke Of Bedford Will Gordon |
1 | 29% | $$57.16 | DANGER |
| 3 | Gift Of Oratory Harry Coffey |
2 | 26% | $$69.05 | |
| 4 | Donegal Soul Chelsea Taylor |
4 | 24% | $$5.44 |
- Placed 2nd of 11 last start (2.5L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 2400m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
WIN#1 Flashlight1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
41%
Flashlight (6) J: Brad Rawiller
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
2
17%
Dealt (7) J: Cian Macredmond
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
3
22%
Distillery (3) J: Lachlan King
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
4
29%
Duke Of Bedford (1) J: Will Gordon
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
5
26%
Gift Of Oratory (2) J: Harry Coffey
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
#4
6
24%
Donegal Soul (4) J: Chelsea Taylor
top jockey, quality stable
7
22%
Winds Of March (9) J: Liam Riordan
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
8
17%
Lane Changer (8) J: Eoin Walsh
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
9
19%
Velocity Rose (5) J: Nadia Daniels
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
Exotics
Exacta: Flashlight / Duke Of Bedford, Gift Of Oratory
Trifecta: Box: Flashlight, Duke Of Bedford, Gift Of Oratory, Donegal Soul
First 4: Box: Flashlight, Duke Of Bedford, Gift Of Oratory, Donegal Soul, Distillery
R6 • 1300m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sakasu Cassidy Hill |
6 | 33% | $$93.79 | BEST |
| 2 | Chosen Venture Milos Bunjevac |
4 | 31% | $$5.44 | DANGER |
| 3 | Olivia's Scandal Chelsea Taylor |
3 | 31% | N/A | |
| 4 | Masina Makisha Salter |
10 | 29% | $$6.62 |
- Missed last but has won 1 of past 5 (incl. Mildura).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1300m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
22%
Silvaloa (9) J: Lachlan King
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
2
23%
Altruist (2) J: Chelsea Jokic
quality stable
3
25%
Highly Intrigued (5) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
4
19%
Burning Sensation (12) J: Sarah Field
quality stable
#2
5
31%
Chosen Venture (4) J: Milos Bunjevac
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
19%
Manchego (10) J: Cian Macredmond
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
7
31%
Olivia's Scandal (3) J: Chelsea Taylor
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
8
33%
Sakasu (6) J: Cassidy Hill
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
9
23%
Ville De Lumiere (1) J: Harry Coffey
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
10
21%
Brillar (11) J: Will Gordon
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
11
26%
Lychee Green Tea (7) J: Liam Riordan
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
12
24%
Smokey Warrior (11) J: Nathan Punch
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
13
29%
Masina (10) J: Makisha Salter
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
14
24%
Smart Elissim (8) J: Stacey Metcalfe
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey, inconsistent
R7 • 975m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viperion Dylan Dean |
3 | 32% | $$11.40 | BEST |
| 2 | Reward The Sheriff Logan McNeil |
4 | 32% | $$87.73 | DANGER |
| 3 | Wareo Road Harry Coffey |
8 | 31% | $$3.05 | |
| 4 | Bimballa Eoin Walsh |
11 | 26% | $$5.88 |
- Finished 7th last start, 3.9L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
26%
Maximillius (1) J: Sarah Field
proven at distance, class edge, quality stable
#3
2
31%
Wareo Road (8) J: Harry Coffey
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
3
24%
Fox Man (10) J: Will Gordon
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
4
25%
The Wayfarer (5) J: Stacey Metcalfe
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
21%
Vinnie's Turn (6) J: Cian Macredmond
top jockey, quality stable
6
18%
Whatdoya Mean (11) J: Ryan Hurdle
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
7
20%
Bellakai (2) J: Chelsea Taylor
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
#4
8
26%
Bimballa (11) J: Eoin Walsh
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#2
9
32%
Reward The Sheriff (4) J: Logan McNeil
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
10
17%
Lacemaker (13) J: Liam Riordan
proven at distance, top jockey
11
22%
Melodee Rose (7) J: Milos Bunjevac
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
12
25%
Shadow Black (9) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
13
32%
Viperion (3) J: Dylan Dean
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
14
27%
Avid General (7) J: Cassidy Hill
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
15
25%
Simply Luscious (4) J: Makisha Salter
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
16
24%
Highland Belle (10) J: Sarah Field
proven at distance, quality stable
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R3:
#3 Hydrogen Power (Barrier 1)
Model: $3.33
1% of bank
Model: $3.33
1% of bank
R5:
#1 Flashlight (Barrier 6)
Model: $5.06
1% of bank
Model: $5.06
1% of bank
Total Stake: 2.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 12/04/2026, 8:39:09 am