Seymour
VIC • 2026-04-13
Soft
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Updated: 05:25 AEST
9
Races Analysed
1
Bets Found
Reward Tha Master
Best Bet
None
Best Value
98%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Seymour
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Top Jockeys Here:
- C J Parish: 2W from 3 (66.7% win, 66.7% place)
- Teodore Nugent: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)
- M Aitken: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 33.3% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1000m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boyd Luke Nolen |
1 | 35% | N/A | BEST |
| 2 | Weasel Sea Lachlan King |
11 | 28% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Profile Eoin Walsh |
12 | 24% | N/A | |
| 4 | Parak Brendon Newport |
4 | 30% | N/A |
- Placed 3rd of 9 last start (2.2L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
17%
Bad Blood (6) J: John Allen
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
2
22%
Bold Amore (5) J: Thomas Spillane
suited to trip, in good form, quality stable
#1
3
35%
Boyd (1) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, flying form
4
17%
Doctorate (3) J: Teodore Nugent
top jockey, inconsistent
5
18%
Finance Work (2) J: Craig Newitt
in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
6
14%
Medieval Warrior (9) J: Thomas Stockdale
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
7
17%
Morning Ralph (7) J:
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
8
30%
Parak (4) J: Brendon Newport
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
9
14%
Strong Box (8) J: Rhys Mc Leod
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
10
28%
Weasel Sea (11) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance, flying form, inconsistent
11
24%
Done Leavy (10) J: Zac Spain
flying form, quality stable
12
Exegesis (2) J: Lauren Burke
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
13
24%
Profile (12) J: Eoin Walsh
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
14
23%
Zou Doll (13) J: Lachlan Neindorf
top jockey, inconsistent
R2 • 1000m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pull My Finger Lachlan Neindorf |
13 | 34% | $$9.11 | BEST |
| 2 | Spirit Of Gaia Blaike Mc Dougall |
12 | 34% | $$3.33 | DANGER |
| 3 | Finnish Girl Dakotah Keane |
5 | 28% | N/A | |
| 4 | Unriddle Melea Castle |
4 | 29% | $$4.39 |
- Placed 3rd of 4 last start (5.2L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
18%
Bear Champ (16) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
2
17%
Big Collect (7) J: Jamie Gibbons
quality stable, inconsistent
3
10%
Captain Sparrow (15) J: Neil Farley
in good form, quality stable, inconsistent
4
19%
Eire To The Jungle (10) J:
quality stable
#1
5
34%
Pull My Finger (13) J: Lachlan Neindorf
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
Tamatoa (2) J: Thomas Stockdale
form a concern, top jockey, inconsistent
7
19%
Back Up Barbie (8) J: Jye McNeil
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
8
22%
Cliffs Hanger (3) J: Liam Riordan
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
9
28%
Finnish Girl (5) J: Dakotah Keane
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
27%
Give Her Time (9) J: Teodore Nugent
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
20%
It's Justa Guess (10) J: Logan McNeil
in good form, quality stable
12
28%
Jumpin' Jewellette (1) J: Zac Spain
proven at distance, in good form
13
27%
Mathletes (14) J: Samantha Noble
proven at distance, in good form
#2
14
34%
Spirit Of Gaia (12) J: Blaike Mc Dougall
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
15
18%
Big Richard (11) J: Luke Nolen
quality stable
16
21%
On My Own (1) J:
suited to trip, quality stable, inconsistent
17
20%
Royal Summer (6) J: Milos Bunjevac
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
18
29%
Unriddle (4) J: Melea Castle
in good form, top jockey
R3 • 1300m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chloe First Luke Nolen |
14 | 30% | N/A | BEST |
| 2 | Sexy Warrior Ben Kennedy |
4 | 25% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Palentine Princess Valentin Le Boeuf |
2 | 24% | N/A | |
| 4 | Storming Camelot Rhys Mc Leod |
13 | 26% | N/A |
- Placed 2nd of 8 last start (2.2L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Stepping to 1300m for the first time — distance query.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
26%
Hellofa Gamble (7) J: Brad Rawiller
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
2
24%
Best Terms (12) J: John Allen
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
3
17%
Discover Lupino (8) J: Zac Spain
flying form, quality stable, inconsistent
4
20%
Let Rip Rod (5) J: Blaike Mc Dougall
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
5
11%
Overcast (3) J: Jye McNeil
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
6
13%
Royal Business (1) J: Neil Farley
flying form, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
7
26%
Storming Camelot (13) J: Rhys Mc Leod
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
8
24%
Palentine Princess (2) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
quality stable, inconsistent
#2
9
25%
Sexy Warrior (4) J: Ben Kennedy
flying form
10
22%
Amedei (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf
proven at level, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#1
11
30%
Chloe First (14) J: Luke Nolen
flying form
12
20%
Cumulate (6) J: Lachlan King
in good form
13
14%
Galaxy's Edge (9) J: Milos Bunjevac
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
14
Reel Raider (11) J: Eoin Walsh
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R4 • 1600m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riverlea Prince Cory Parish |
6 | 34% | N/A | BEST |
| 2 | Panda's Spectrum Luke Nolen |
1 | 27% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Enchanted Lass Eoin Walsh |
14 | 23% | N/A | |
| 4 | Tornado Anwa Jessica Booth |
2 | 20% | N/A |
- Placed 3rd of 11 last start (2.8L).
- Dropping in grade from recent campaigns — well suited at this level.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
23%
Key To Victory (4) J: Rhys Mc Leod
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
2
21%
Spietata (13) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
3
25%
Whatta Man (3) J: Neil Farley
in good form, quality stable
4
16%
Cold Aza Beer (14) J:
in good form, inconsistent
5
12%
Going Viral (9) J: Milos Bunjevac
in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
6
19%
Ireland's Tears (10) J: Ben Kennedy
in good form
#1
7
34%
Riverlea Prince (6) J: Cory Parish
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
8
25%
The Archer (5) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
quality stable, inconsistent
9
19%
Angel Don't Cry (11) J: Craig Newitt
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
10
23%
Enchanted Lass (14) J: Eoin Walsh
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
11
19%
Fille En Or (12) J: Sarah Field
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
12
20%
Tornado Anwa (2) J: Jessica Booth
looking for others
13
16%
Freshwater Fox (7) J: Teodore Nugent
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
#2
14
27%
Panda's Spectrum (1) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
15
14%
Crush Puppy (15) J: Zac Spain
in good form, inconsistent
16
18%
Fox Force (8) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
R5 • 1600m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cryptic Clue Beau Treloar |
7 | 33% | $$25.36 | BEST |
| 2 | Pro Aussie Rhys Mc Leod |
5 | 30% | $$18.20 | DANGER |
| 3 | Ryanman Amy Herrmann |
2 | 28% | $$8.83 | |
| 4 | Wambeen Cory Parish |
11 | 29% | $$4.79 |
- Won last start by 0.8L at Bairnsdale over 1600m.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
33%
Cryptic Clue (7) J: Beau Treloar
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
2
23%
Oceans Above (8) J:
proven at distance, quality stable
#2
3
30%
Pro Aussie (5) J: Rhys Mc Leod
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
4
28%
Ryanman (2) J: Amy Herrmann
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
5
17%
Mighty Mac (10) J: Blaike Mc Dougall
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
20%
Tel Aviv (6) J: Alice Kennedy
in good form
#4
7
29%
Wambeen (11) J: Cory Parish
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
8
20%
Foggy Bottom (9) J: Sheridan Clarke
in good form
9
18%
Tradeworx (1) J: Teodore Nugent
top jockey, quality stable
10
22%
I Could Do Better (3) J: Liana Wood
solid track record, class edge, top jockey, inconsistent
11
21%
First Tosen (4) J: Jessica Booth
place chance
12
22%
Yongtai (4) J: Milos Bunjevac
top jockey
R6 • 1400m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camp Cable Cory Parish |
8 | 31% | $$10.53 | BEST |
| 2 | She's A Jett Eoin Walsh |
5 | 25% | $$20.06 | DANGER |
| 3 | Freak Of Nature Chelsea Thompson |
7 | 30% | $$3.97 | |
| 4 | Miss Himalaya Jett Stanley |
4 | 26% | $$9.91 |
- Finished 4th last start, 3.2L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
30%
Freak Of Nature (7) J: Chelsea Thompson
proven at distance, in good form, class edge
2
15%
Star Blazer (8) J:
in good form
3
18%
High Country Star (9) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#1
4
31%
Camp Cable (8) J: Cory Parish
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
15%
Beautifully (10) J: Caitlin Hollowood
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
6
25%
She's A Jett (5) J: Eoin Walsh
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
7
19%
Bow Ribbon (2) J: Craig Newitt
suited to trip, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
27%
Snappy Pierro (3) J: Teodore Nugent
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
9
24%
Quick Spell (6) J: Blaike Mc Dougall
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
10
26%
Miss Himalaya (4) J: Jett Stanley
suited to trip, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
14%
Mahra (1) J: Jade Da Rose
flying form, quality stable
R7 • 1200m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turnaquid Blaike Mc Dougall |
5 | 29% | $$3.55 | BEST |
| 2 | Snappy Tycoon Teodore Nugent |
7 | 26% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Loco For Coco Jade Da Rose |
9 | 23% | $$28.67 | |
| 4 | The Bantam Jett Stanley |
3 | 25% | $$14.64 |
- Missed last but has won 2 of past 5 (incl. Wangaratta).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
19%
Dani California (8) J: Patrick Moloney
proven at distance, flying form
#1
2
29%
Turnaquid (5) J: Blaike Mc Dougall
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
3
21%
Hidden Bay (14) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
4
26%
Snappy Tycoon (7) J: Teodore Nugent
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
5
25%
Diamond Indaruf (6) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
6
24%
Monix (11) J: Cian Macredmond
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
7
26%
Rattle'n'roll (4) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance
#4
8
25%
The Bantam (3) J: Jett Stanley
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey, quality stable
9
23%
A Beach In June (1) J: John Allen
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
23%
Swing Your Magic (12) J: Rhys Mc Leod
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
25%
Prandium Tempus (10) J: Milos Bunjevac
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
12
19%
Legendary Diva (13) J: Tayla Childs
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
13
23%
Loco For Coco (9) J: Jade Da Rose
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
14
19%
Timbolton (2) J: Paul Gatt
proven at distance, in good form
R8 • 1200m • Benchmark 56;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder Hawk Brad Rawiller |
1 | 29% | $$12.53 | BEST |
| 2 | Big Star Lachlan King |
11 | 25% | $$33.75 | DANGER |
| 3 | Where's My Sock Neil Farley |
4 | 24% | N/A | |
| 4 | Sunburnt Brendon Newport |
5 | 27% | $$6.34 |
- Finished 7th last start, 4.0L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
21%
Three Musketeers (12) J: Teodore Nugent
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
2
27%
Smarticon (8) J: Liam Riordan
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
3
29%
Thunder Hawk (1) J: Brad Rawiller
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
22%
Western Lane (7) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
5
21%
Fire Wheel (10) J: Rhys Mc Leod
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
6
26%
Intriguing State (15) J:
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
7
20%
Amraam (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
26%
Ichiberu (2) J: Zac Spain
proven at distance, in good form
#3
9
24%
Where's My Sock (4) J: Neil Farley
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
10
16%
Snappy Beau (3) J: Jackie Beriman
top jockey, quality stable
11
20%
Supamano (9) J: Cory Parish
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
#2
12
25%
Big Star (11) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance, in good form
13
24%
Fortyfour Magnum (13) J: Jett Stanley
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
14
20%
Persuasive Star (14) J: Milos Bunjevac
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#4
15
27%
Sunburnt (5) J: Brendon Newport
proven at distance, quality stable
R9 • 1000m • Benchmark 56;12:00
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 56; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reward Tha Master Brad Rawiller |
12 | 38% | $$19.75 | BEST |
| 2 | At The Mint Valentin Le Boeuf |
6 | 27% | $$30.73 | DANGER |
| 3 | Toronado Boom Rhys Mc Leod |
9 | 26% | N/A | |
| 4 | Ruckman Lachlan King |
16 | 28% | $$14.41 |
- Placed 3rd of 12 last start (7.1L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
WIN#2 Reward Tha Master1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
With Strength (18) J:
flying form
#1
2
38%
Reward Tha Master (12) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
26%
Blue Moon Summit (7) J: Craig Newitt
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
4
24%
Kid Dynamite (17) J: Sarah Field
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#3
5
26%
Toronado Boom (9) J: Rhys Mc Leod
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
6
29%
El Salto (13) J: Neil Farley
proven at distance, class edge, quality stable
7
23%
Magic Leprechaun (5) J: Cory Parish
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
25%
Moaksun (1) J: Mitchell Aitken
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#4
9
28%
Ruckman (16) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance, quality stable
10
26%
Avid General (8) J: Cassidy Hill
proven at distance, top jockey
11
16%
Cheeky Contiki (14) J: Liam Riordan
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
12
25%
Spinosaurus (2) J: Tayla Childs
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
13
24%
Sea Mist (11) J: Brendon Newport
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
14
19%
Bron (4) J: Milos Bunjevac
top jockey, quality stable
15
21%
Densetsu (3) J: Teodore Nugent
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
16
27%
At The Mint (6) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
17
16%
Bronco Revolution (10) J:
proven at distance
18
16%
Transom (15) J:
quality stable
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R9:
#2 Reward Tha Master (Barrier 12) UNDERLAY -54%
Model: $19.75
1% of bank
Model: $19.75
1% of bank
Total Stake: 1.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 12/04/2026, 5:25:22 am