Pakenham Synthetic
2026-07-20
Good
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Updated: 09:13 AEST
10
Races Analysed
1
Bets Found
Good Harmony
Best Bet
None
Best Value
96%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Pakenham Synthetic
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- C Newitt: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 50.0% place)
- Jye McNeil: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 50.0% place)
- J Bowditch: 1W from 6 (16.7% win, 33.3% place)
- Bailey Kinninmont: 1W from 6 (16.7% win, 66.7% place)
- Ben Allen: 1W from 8 (12.5% win, 25.0% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1000m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phillip Island Craig Williams |
3 | 34% | $$6.24 | BEST |
| 2 | Tommy's Lass Jye McNeil |
2 | 32% | $$6.59 | DANGER |
| 3 | Darling Rose Jett Stanley |
4 | 22% | $$10.36 | |
| 4 | Artison Michael Dee |
6 | 20% | $$10.56 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
Bohemian Boy (1) J: Holly Durnan
form a concern, inconsistent
2Brazen Bold (15)SCR
3Chigurh (10)SCR
4Crudens Tycoon (14)SCR
5
18%
Guv (5) J: Thomas Stockdale
in good form, inconsistent
6Inside Word (12)SCR
#1
7
34%
Phillip Island (3) J: Craig Williams
flying form
8
19%
Pocketfullofcash (11) J: Lachlan Neindorf
flying form, inconsistent
9
1%
Sodapop (7) J: Lachlan King
form a concern, inconsistent
10
18%
Blue Spanish Sky (10) J: Luke Cartwright
flying form, inconsistent
11Emerald Lady (2)SCR
12
1%
Gunnah's Conker (8) J: Jackie Beriman
form a concern, inconsistent
#2
13
32%
Tommy's Lass (2) J: Jye McNeil
flying form, inconsistent
14One Day At A Time (15)SCR
15The Troubleshooter (10)SCR
16
16%
Prince Of Portland (9) J: Jake Noonan
inconsistent
#4
17
20%
Artison (6) J: Michael Dee
flying form, inconsistent
#3
18
22%
Darling Rose (4) J: Jett Stanley
flying form, inconsistent
R2 • 1100m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crime Of Passion Thomas Stockdale |
3 | 39% | $$6.57 | BEST |
| 2 | Mahrajan Jye McNeil |
1 | 32% | $$8.76 | DANGER |
| 3 | Alphabet Jamie Mott |
8 | 31% | $$8.78 | |
| 4 | Shows No Shame Patrick Moloney |
4 | 29% | $$9.93 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
31%
Alphabet (8) J: Jamie Mott
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
2
39%
Crime Of Passion (3) J: Thomas Stockdale
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
3
32%
Mahrajan (1) J: Jye McNeil
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
4
Miss Pantera (9) J: Lachlan King
form a concern, top jockey, inconsistent
5
25%
Moonlight Romance (7) J: Sally Wynne
place chance
6
Pjanoo (12) J: Dylan Dunn
form a concern, top jockey, inconsistent
7
1%
Praise Her (5) J: Michael Dee
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
8
29%
Shows No Shame (4) J: Patrick Moloney
proven at distance, top jockey
9
17%
Torzannie (6) J: Melea Castle
top jockey, inconsistent
10
Turn Haast Loose (11) J: Logan McNeil
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
11
17%
Agoraphobic (10) J: Damien Thornton
in good form, quality stable, inconsistent
12
19%
Scorching Beauty (2) J: Craig Williams
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
13Stellar Jewels (12)SCR
14Tous (18)SCR
15Miss Exceptional (5)SCR
16Diamond Storm (9)SCR
17Mirador (10)SCR
18Watten Assett (14)SCR
R3 • 1100m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alodie Melea Castle |
11 | 32% | $$6.97 | BEST |
| 2 | Planet Mars Jake Noonan |
7 | 32% | $$8.09 | DANGER |
| 3 | Sheer Panic Joe Bowditch |
10 | 26% | $$9.21 | |
| 4 | Cosmic Shower Lachlan Neindorf |
8 | 28% | $$9.26 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
Hot Defense (1) J: Adam Mc Cabe
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
2
32%
Planet Mars (7) J: Jake Noonan
proven at distance, top jockey
3
15%
Satellite Chester (3) J: Theodore Ladd
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
4
26%
Sheer Panic (10) J: Joe Bowditch
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
5
32%
Alodie (11) J: Melea Castle
solid track record, in good form, top jockey
#4
6
28%
Cosmic Shower (8) J: Lachlan Neindorf
top jockey, inconsistent
7
14%
Fierce Ruby (6) J: Damien Thornton
flying form, quality stable, inconsistent
8Hello Kaye (2)SCR
9
21%
Jundah (2) J: Luke Nolen
solid track record, flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
10
20%
Sealand (5) J: Michael Dee
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
17%
Alpine Point (9) J: Jye McNeil
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
12
16%
Liquid Asset (4) J: Thomas Stockdale
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
13Shanghai Express (6)SCR
14Absent (12)SCR
15Sumaluv (17)SCR
16Gemofsixteencarats (13)SCR
17Immortal Diva (7)SCR
18Whimsy Smile (11)SCR
R4 • 1600m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soul Mistress Jye McNeil |
6 | 40% | $$5.59 | BEST |
| 2 | Blanche Bass Joe Bowditch |
1 | 35% | $$7.36 | DANGER |
| 3 | Rockin' Dee Fox Brad Rawiller |
11 | 28% | $$8.23 | |
| 4 | Miss Shiino Michael Dee |
9 | 20% | $$11.32 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
11%
Akhalteke (3) J: Patrick Moloney
top jockey, quality stable
2
17%
Hardunby (7) J: Damien Thornton
in good form, quality stable
3
14%
Oshima (10) J: Luke Nolen
in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
4
28%
Rockin' Dee Fox (11) J: Brad Rawiller
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
5
16%
Sobine (5) J: Teodore Nugent
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
6
35%
Blanche Bass (1) J: Joe Bowditch
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
7
20%
Downtherabbithole (8) J: Nathan Punch
inconsistent
8
23%
Jenni Bassett (2) J: Jett Stanley
top jockey
#4
9
20%
Miss Shiino (9) J: Michael Dee
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
10
40%
Soul Mistress (6) J: Jye McNeil
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
11
12%
Think Fury (4) J: Stephanie Hateley
in good form, quality stable, inconsistent
12Evening Tycoon (4)SCR
13Zareenee (1)SCR
14Caitlin's Punch (9)SCR
15Eye Tracker (17)SCR
16Mr Vegas (16)SCR
17Shines Discreetly (5)SCR
R5 • 1400m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soundwave Jye McNeil |
1 | 28% | $$8.46 | BEST |
| 2 | Butterscotch Luke Nolen |
10 | 27% | $$8.54 | DANGER |
| 3 | Macca's Angel Luke Cartwright |
3 | 29% | $$9.13 | |
| 4 | Swift Endorsement Jamie Mott |
11 | 24% | $$10.32 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
24%
Casual Ghai (2) J: Teodore Nugent
top jockey, quality stable
2Duperouzel (16)SCR
3
14%
Ominous (5) J: Michael Dee
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#1
4
28%
Soundwave (1) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#4
5
24%
Swift Endorsement (11) J: Jamie Mott
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6Vallo (8)SCR
#2
7
27%
Butterscotch (10) J: Luke Nolen
flying form, top jockey
8
22%
Finnish Girl (6) J: Stephanie Hateley
suited to trip, in good form
#3
9
29%
Macca's Angel (3) J: Luke Cartwright
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
26%
Queens Of Vino (9) J: Damien Thornton
in good form, quality stable
11
15%
Thommo (4) J: Craig Williams
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
12Cindy Lou (18)SCR
13
19%
Divergent (7) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, in good form, top jockey
14
24%
Donato (8) J: Dylan Dunn
top jockey
15Prestige Zerprise (10)SCR
16Sheza Raveela (7)SCR
17Sistine Impact (12)SCR
18Heartstopper (2)SCR
R6 • 1400m • Benchmark 62;
PASS
Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blondeau Bailey Kinninmont |
1 | 30% | $$9.71 | BEST |
| 2 | King Maywin Lachlan Neindorf |
9 | 27% | $$10.44 | DANGER |
| 3 | Military Base Luke Nolen |
10 | 26% | $$10.46 | |
| 4 | Clansman Luke Currie |
7 | 26% | $$10.65 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
24%
Banknote Hustler (5) J: Olivia East
in good form, class edge, top jockey
2
22%
Impending War (11) J: Jamie Mott
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
3
25%
Claymore Mine (12) J: Nadia Daniels
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#1
4
30%
Blondeau (1) J: Bailey Kinninmont
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey, inconsistent
#4
5
26%
Clansman (7) J: Luke Currie
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
6Deepseek (16)SCR
7
23%
The Negotiator (6) J: Damien Thornton
proven at distance, in good form
8
28%
Gallant Prince (4) J: Jake Noonan
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
9Prestige Ole (5)SCR
#2
10
27%
King Maywin (9) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
11
25%
Queen Of Tuscany (2) J: Luke Cartwright
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
12
18%
Savannah Chill (3) J: Jye McNeil
top jockey, quality stable
#3
13
26%
Military Base (10) J: Luke Nolen
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
14
23%
Triple Triple (8) J: Lachlan King
top jockey, quality stable
15Women In Uniform (3)SCR
16Qubella (5)SCR
17You Never Can Tell (16)SCR
18Quello Dorato (15)SCR
R7 • 1400m • Benchmark 62;
PASS
Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aitu Jake Noonan |
7 | 29% | $$9.70 | BEST |
| 2 | Pro Velocity Michael Dee |
3 | 29% | $$9.72 | DANGER |
| 3 | Bella Pietra Jamie Mott |
9 | 26% | $$10.09 | |
| 4 | Nostro Roccia Craig Newitt |
8 | 23% | $$11.99 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
21%
Quebeck (5) J: Jett Stanley
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
2
23%
Shooter Mcgavin (6) J: Tom Madden
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
21%
Aloisi (11) J: Luke Cartwright
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
#4
4
23%
Nostro Roccia (8) J: Craig Newitt
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#1
5
29%
Aitu (7) J: Jake Noonan
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
25%
Paramount Plus (4) J: Zac Spain
solid track record, suited to trip, in good form, top jockey
#3
7
26%
Bella Pietra (9) J: Jamie Mott
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
8Just Magic (15)SCR
9Angel In Black (8)SCR
10
25%
Lulu Darling (12) J: Adam Mc Cabe
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
11
24%
Baltic Blizzard (2) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
12
21%
Cresta Crystal (10) J: Nadia Daniels
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
13
23%
Swift Circle (1) J: Jackson Radley
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
14
29%
Pro Velocity (3) J: Michael Dee
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
15Titan Of Choice (14)SCR
16Octane Reign (13)SCR
17Express Guard (3)SCR
18Forest Jim (6)SCR
R8 • 1600m • Benchmark 62;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashau Valley Nadia Daniels |
4 | 33% | $$7.55 | BEST |
| 2 | Bronte Beach Jamie Mott |
7 | 27% | $$8.63 | DANGER |
| 3 | Hulkster Thomas Stockdale |
8 | 28% | $$10.00 | |
| 4 | Ancho Jye McNeil |
11 | 25% | $$11.16 |
EACH WAYTab 1 Ashau Valley (0.25 unit win + 0.25 unit place)0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
33%
Ashau Valley (4) J: Nadia Daniels
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
2
27%
Bronte Beach (7) J: Jamie Mott
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
3
24%
Easy Dun (3) J: Luke Nolen
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey
#3
4
28%
Hulkster (8) J: Thomas Stockdale
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
24%
Double Pi (6) J: Bree Temple
solid track record, in good form, top jockey
6Reel Deadly (11)SCR
#4
7
25%
Ancho (11) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
8
21%
Caleana (10) J: Luke Cartwright
proven at distance, top jockey
9
20%
Crespiano (2) J: Lachlan Neindorf
top jockey
10
24%
Fearless Writer (5) J: Adam Mc Cabe
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
11
25%
Capital Grace (1) J: Damien Thornton
proven at distance
12
24%
Lady Elsa (9) J: Jett Stanley
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
13Queen Beira (1)SCR
14Duntulm Lass (2)SCR
15Rookery Nook (3)SCR
16Compressing (2)SCR
17Dane On Tour (4)SCR
R9 • 1200m • Benchmark 70;
PASS
Benchmark 70; • Prize: $27000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prince Of Brooky Bailey Kinninmont |
11 | 31% | $$9.55 | BEST |
| 2 | Just For Show Jye McNeil |
8 | 30% | $$9.74 | DANGER |
| 3 | Lake Forest Lachlan Neindorf |
9 | 30% | $$9.86 | |
| 4 | Primal Spirit Jake Noonan |
4 | 28% | $$10.67 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
25%
Le Ferrari (12) J: Olivia East
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#4
2
28%
Primal Spirit (4) J: Jake Noonan
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
24%
Spirited Defence (6) J: Thomas Stockdale
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
4
30%
Just For Show (8) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
5
26%
Shaalute (5) J: Rose Hammond
solid track record, proven at distance, class edge
6
24%
Cardone (2) J: Dylan Dunn
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
#3
7
30%
Lake Forest (9) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
8
23%
Humble Trader (7) J: Jamie Mott
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
9
31%
Prince Of Brooky (11) J: Bailey Kinninmont
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
10Suze Spritz (13)SCR
11Regal Secret (13)SCR
12
24%
Spirit Of Jo (1) J: Patrick Moloney
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
13
25%
Duel Venture (3) J: Joe Bowditch
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
14
17%
Eternal Darkness (10) J: Jackson Radley
top jockey, quality stable
R10 • 2200m • Benchmark 62;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good Harmony Lachlan Neindorf |
11 | 37% | $$6.81 | BEST |
| 2 | Dundonald Patrick Moloney |
5 | 32% | $$8.13 | DANGER |
| 3 | Itsagiven Craig Newitt |
7 | 30% | $$8.60 | |
| 4 | Madame Lexis Teodore Nugent |
4 | 26% | $$10.71 |
EACH WAYTab 9 Good Harmony (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
Chihuly (9) J: Zac Spain
solid track record, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
2
26%
Cyclone Harmony (6) J: Olivia East
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
3
32%
Dundonald (5) J: Patrick Moloney
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
4
26%
Madame Lexis (4) J: Teodore Nugent
proven at distance, proven at level, top jockey, quality stable
5
21%
Papal Army (2) J: Jye McNeil
top jockey
6Hard To Go Wrong (5)SCR
7
18%
Thunderbolt Way (1) J: Lachlan King
top jockey, quality stable
8
17%
Burlington Gate (3) J: Jamie Mott
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#1
9
37%
Good Harmony (11) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
17%
Knee Deep (8) J: Luke Currie
top jockey, quality stable
11
16%
Frank Express (10) J: Makisha Salter
top jockey
#3
12
30%
Itsagiven (7) J: Craig Newitt
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
13Three Reel Roses (8)SCR
14Tradeworx (10)SCR
Exotics
Quinella: Good Harmony, Dundonald
Exacta: Good Harmony / Dundonald, Itsagiven
Trifecta: Box: Good Harmony, Dundonald, Itsagiven, Madame Lexis
First 4: Box: Good Harmony, Dundonald, Itsagiven, Madame Lexis, Cyclone Harmony
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R10:
Tab 9 Good Harmony (Barrier 11)
Model: $6.81
1 units
Model: $6.81
1 units
Total Stake: 1.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 20/07/2026, 9:13:32 am