Mornington

2026-09-04

Soft Rail: Out 5m Entire Circuit

Updated: 20:18 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

N/A

Best Bet

None

Best Value

98%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Mornington

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

Beau Mertens: 2W from 3 (66.7% win, 66.7% place)
J Mott: 1W from 5 (20.0% win, 40.0% place)
J Noonan: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)
Luke Cartwright: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)
Lachlan Neindorf: 0W from 4 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1500m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $32000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Passio Thomas Stockdale	2	26%	$$11.54	BEST
2	Foxtrot Charlie Dylan Dunn	15	30%	$$11.92	DANGER
3	Blanche Bass Joe Bowditch	16	31%	$$12.64
4	Independant Lad Craig Newitt	10	26%	$$12.85

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

El Ferdinando (8) J: Lauren Burke

form a concern, inconsistent

#2 2

Foxtrot Charlie (15) J: Dylan Dunn

solid track record

30%

Iamabadguy (3) J: Ethan Brown

form a concern, inconsistent

4Rich King (15)SCR

5Tempered Edge (14)SCR

Top Conti (4) J: Jamie Mott

proven at level

25%

All Too Single (6) J: Jackson Radley

place chance

24%

#3 8

Blanche Bass (16) J: Joe Bowditch

proven at distance

31%

I'mfallinforyou (11) J: Zac Spain

place chance

25%

#4 10

Independant Lad (10) J: Craig Newitt

in good form

26%

#1 11

Passio (2) J: Thomas Stockdale

flying form

26%

Sentaloa (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse

form a concern, inconsistent

Laurel Bay (13) J: Remi Tremsal

inconsistent

25%

I'lluvyoulongtime (5) J: Patrick Moloney

inconsistent

17%

Rough Act (9) J:

inconsistent

15%

Threewinesin (1) J: Lachlan King

form a concern, inconsistent

16%

Kuheylan (12) J: Jake Noonan

in good form, inconsistent

18%

Bluejet (14) J:

inconsistent

20%

R2 • 1200m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $32000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Satoshi Lachlan Neindorf	1	30%	$$9.82	BEST
2	Dama Royale Jett Stanley	4	32%	$$10.41	DANGER
3	Absent Jackson Radley	7	29%	$$12.31
4	Jourama Damien Thornton	10	24%	$$12.49

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Kooralbyn (5) J: Luke Nolen

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

Mykindakandy (11) J: Ethan Brown

proven at distance

25%

#2 3

Dama Royale (4) J: Jett Stanley

proven at distance, in good form

32%

Zovozo (3) J: Jye McNeil

flying form, inconsistent

23%

Bronx Brawler (9) J: Zac Spain

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

6Desert Oak (7)SCR

Friend Request (12) J: Joe Bowditch

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

8Gold Chalice (14)SCR

Hierarchy (8) J: Jamie Mott

in good form, inconsistent

16%

#4 10

Jourama (10) J: Damien Thornton

in good form

24%

Kalashani Sun (6) J: Valentin Le Boeuf

form a concern, inconsistent

12Miss Capri (16)SCR

Whatwashethinking (14) J: Sally Wynne

inconsistent

23%

#3 14

Absent (7) J: Jackson Radley

suited to trip, quality stable

29%

#1 15

Satoshi (1) J: Lachlan Neindorf

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

30%

Ocean Surge (13) J:

in good form, inconsistent

18%

Count Chevalier (15) J: Michael Dee

flying form, inconsistent

17%

Socium (2) J:

form a concern, inconsistent

19%

R3 • 1000m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $32000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Koko Jamie Mott	2	37%	$$9.48	BEST
2	Profile Valentin Le Boeuf	10	28%	$$13.53	DANGER
3	Midnight Man Zac Spain	11	25%	$$13.93
4	Little Richo Ethan Brown	16	21%	$$14.59

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Ain't A Bad Day (13) J: Logan McNeil

suited to trip, quality stable

22%

Diamond Mila (1) J: Nadia Daniels

inconsistent

23%

Flamingo Flyer (14) J: Damien Thornton

proven at distance, quality stable

22%

#4 4

Little Richo (16) J: Ethan Brown

flying form, inconsistent

21%

#3 5

Midnight Man (11) J: Zac Spain

quality stable

25%

6Powershare (9)SCR

Remillik (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse

flying form, inconsistent

14%

Haute (15) J: Ben Melham

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

#1 9

Koko (2) J: Jamie Mott

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

37%

Servenia (12) J: Luke Currie

quality stable, inconsistent

24%

Torokawa (9) J: Lauren Burke

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

15%

Immortal Diva (6) J: Adam Mc Cabe

inconsistent

22%

Level Twenty Nine (3) J: Remi Tremsal

in good form, quality stable, inconsistent

17%

Montostratus (7) J: Brad Rawiller

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

21%

Torzannie (5) J: Bree Temple

inconsistent

23%

#2 16

Profile (10) J: Valentin Le Boeuf

quality stable

28%

La Velocita (8) J:

inconsistent

24%

R4 • 1000m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $32000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	The Troubleshooter Luke Nolen	8	35%	$$8.66	BEST
2	Come Together Ethan Brown	2	28%	$$9.93	DANGER
3	Lomu Jye McNeil	5	30%	$$10.41
4	Firm'n'high Luke Nolen	13	27%	$$10.54

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Bohemian Blitz (14) J: Jamie Mott

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

#2 2

Come Together (2) J: Ethan Brown

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

28%

Hellava Hustle (6) J: Luke Currie

form a concern, inconsistent

#3 4

Lomu (5) J: Jye McNeil

flying form, inconsistent

30%

Prestige Hellbent (15) J:

form a concern, inconsistent

Ricky Stanicky (7) J: Lachlan King

in good form, inconsistent

14%

Stark Varg (11) J: Jett Stanley

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

#1 8

The Troubleshooter (8) J: Luke Nolen

proven at distance, in good form

35%

Tyrant Rex (12) J: Daniel Stackhouse

form a concern, inconsistent

Queen Serena (10) J: Michael Dee

form a concern, inconsistent

Star Gyal (4) J: Makisha Salter

form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent

#4 12

Firm'n'high (13) J: Luke Nolen

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

27%

Oxford Street (9) J: Damien Thornton

proven at distance, in good form

24%

Masochistic (3) J:

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

24%

Do The Dirty (1) J: Ben Allen

in good form, inconsistent

20%

R5 • 1000m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Meet Me Halfway Michael Dee	7	27%	$$10.80	BEST
2	Zamparini Spirit Daniel Stackhouse	2	27%	$$11.15	DANGER
3	Bella Cinque Sam Kennedy	5	29%	$$11.21
4	Blondie's Award Jye McNeil	10	29%	$$11.23

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

She's My Ex (4) J: Olivia East

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

27%

#4 2

Blondie's Award (10) J: Jye McNeil

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

29%

#2 3

Zamparini Spirit (2) J: Daniel Stackhouse

track specialist, in good form, quality stable

27%

4Mr Assertive (15)SCR

Egerton (8) J: Ethan Brown

proven at distance

23%

6Nicereine (1)SCR

#3 7

Bella Cinque (5) J: Sam Kennedy

track specialist, proven at distance

29%

Fileeta (3) J: Chelsea Thompson

proven at distance

18%

Kippis (12) J: Beau Mertens

flying form, quality stable

20%

#1 10

Meet Me Halfway (7) J: Michael Dee

proven at distance, flying form

27%

Superliv (13) J: Ben Allen

proven at distance, in good form

22%

Volatile (11) J: Luke Cartwright

proven at distance, in good form, class edge, quality stable

27%

Legacy Bel (1) J: Carleen Hefel

proven at distance

23%

Divine Empress (6) J: Zac Spain

flying form, quality stable

18%

All Pink (9) J:

proven at distance, quality stable

23%

R6 • 2030m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Annabelle Sunshine Jackie Beriman	8	29%	$$12.62	BEST
2	Razanne Lachlan Neindorf	9	25%	$$13.48	DANGER
3	Foix Thomas Stockdale	6	26%	$$14.33
4	Bank Heist Jack Martin	14	26%	$$14.34

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Omamori (3) J: Jamie Mott

proven at distance

20%

Salsita (12) J: Damien Thornton

suited to trip

23%

3Saveadateforme (14)SCR

#4 4

Bank Heist (14) J: Jack Martin

in good form, quality stable

26%

Tolpuddle (1) J: Jamie Melham

in good form, quality stable

23%

#3 6

Foix (6) J: Thomas Stockdale

proven at distance, quality stable

26%

Hollandia (4) J: Jye McNeil

track specialist, quality stable

23%

Amphactor (7) J: Brad Rawiller

proven at distance

22%

Sixty Grand (2) J: Daniel Stackhouse

in good form, quality stable

18%

Red Aces (11) J: Teodore Nugent

proven at distance, class edge, quality stable

24%

#1 11

Annabelle Sunshine (8) J: Jackie Beriman

track specialist, in good form, quality stable

29%

#2 12

Razanne (9) J: Lachlan Neindorf

flying form, quality stable

25%

13Stole Him (2)SCR

African Grey (5) J: Jake Noonan

proven at distance

21%

Proven Record (13) J: Craig Newitt

proven at distance, quality stable

24%

Frank Express (15) J: Makisha Salter

proven at distance

22%

Acheter (10) J: Dakotah Keane

track specialist

21%

Helping Hands (16) J:

looking for others

17%

R7 • 1500m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Diamanda Caitlin Hollowood	5	28%	$$10.54	BEST
2	Stay Humble Jabez Johnstone	9	32%	$$11.31	DANGER
3	Coronationhercules Dylan Dunn	8	26%	$$12.75
4	Crown Crusher Luke Nolen	7	28%	$$12.82

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Stay Humble (9) J: Jabez Johnstone

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level

32%

#4 2

Crown Crusher (7) J: Luke Nolen

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

28%

Meh Keffi (11) J: Jamie Melham

proven at distance, class edge

24%

#3 4

Coronationhercules (8) J: Dylan Dunn

flying form

26%

Overpriced (13) J: Sheridan Clarke

in good form, quality stable

22%

Touxlove (15) J: Luke Currie

in good form, quality stable

21%

#1 7

Diamanda (5) J: Caitlin Hollowood

solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

28%

Twisted Love (14) J: Jamie Mott

quality stable

17%

Dolce Carolina (4) J: Carleen Hefel

flying form, quality stable

26%

Shubael (1) J: Ben Allen

proven at distance

22%

Washington Lilac (6) J: Luke Cartwright

in good form, quality stable

23%

Russian Benefits (3) J: Zac Spain

track specialist, quality stable

19%

Immortalised (10) J: Jason Maskiell

in good form, quality stable

26%

Stella Cantante (2) J:

looking for others

18%

Shout Out Girl (12) J: Sally Wynne

solid track record, suited to trip, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

R8 • 1200m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Insain Harry Ben Allen	10	31%	$$8.76	BEST
2	Mafee Damien Thornton	9	28%	$$9.35	DANGER
3	Tsarine Ethan Brown	12	26%	$$10.81
4	Pantoja Sam Kennedy	7	28%	$$11.05

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Insain Harry (10) J: Ben Allen

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form

31%

#2 2

Mafee (9) J: Damien Thornton

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

28%

Mickidabeel (1) J: Liana Wood

in good form, quality stable

18%

Glenfinnan (6) J: Thomas Stockdale

proven at distance, quality stable

20%

Cattle Camp (3) J: Luke Nolen

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

17%

6Faraway Dream (8)SCR

Duel Venture (8) J: Logan Bates

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

#4 8

Pantoja (7) J: Sam Kennedy

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

28%

Art 'n' Soul (4) J: Luke Currie

proven at distance, in good form

22%

Ironic Fortune (2) J: Stephen Brown Jnr

in good form

22%

Mauna Kea Miss (5) J: Teodore Nugent

proven at distance

24%

#3 12

Tsarine (12) J: Ethan Brown

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

26%

13Snitchy (9)SCR

Setheus (11) J: Daniel Stackhouse

suited to trip

18%

R9 • 1200m • Benchmark 62;

PASS

Benchmark 62; • Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Ania Beau Mertens	8	32%	$$9.29	BEST
2	Stolen Art Bree Temple	4	31%	$$9.61	DANGER
3	Regal Might Jamie Mott	13	30%	$$10.66
4	Sugar Schnapps Michael Dee	5	25%	$$10.82

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1Silver Bullet (10)SCR

Firerated (7) J: Ruby Lamont

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

Magic Drum (1) J: Carleen Hefel

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

24%

#3 4

Regal Might (13) J: Jamie Mott

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

30%

Materazzi (9) J: Billy Egan

proven at distance, quality stable

21%

#2 6

Stolen Art (4) J: Bree Temple

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

31%

Sub Gauge (12) J: Stephanie Hateley

proven at distance, quality stable

22%

8The Flying Popov (14)SCR

#1 9

Ania (8) J: Beau Mertens

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

32%

Chicago Blues (11) J: Daniel Stackhouse

quality stable

24%

Mamuno (10) J: Ethan Brown

looking for others

18%

#4 12

Sugar Schnapps (5) J: Michael Dee

proven at distance, flying form

25%

It's Gnarly (2) J: Zac Spain

place chance

21%

Mont Saint Michel (3) J: Nadia Daniels

proven at distance

24%

Stirrup (6) J: Valentin Le Boeuf

track specialist, proven at distance, form a concern, inconsistent

21%

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

No confident bets for this meeting

Total Stake: 0.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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