Hobart
2026-07-19
Soft
Rail: True
Updated: 17:58 AEST
8
Races Analysed
3
Bets Found
The Little Bay
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Hobart
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- E Byrne Burke: 10W from 39 (25.6% win, 51.3% place)
- Robyn Lynch: 6W from 17 (35.3% win, 76.5% place)
- Ms K Boxall: 5W from 11 (45.5% win, 63.6% place)
- A Darmanin: 5W from 16 (31.3% win, 56.3% place)
- Catherine Van Munster: 5W from 24 (20.8% win, 41.7% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1200m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frosty Ruge Lauryn Bingley |
2 | 32% | $$7.36 | BEST |
| 2 | Black Raptor Sheridan Clarke |
1 | 25% | $$8.39 | DANGER |
| 3 | Ceeya Sunshine Luke P Dempsey |
9 | 24% | $$9.12 | |
| 4 | Royal Scene Kirra-Lee Lane |
4 | 27% | $$9.51 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
13%
Authorised Access (3) J: Catherine Van Munster
flying form, inconsistent
#3
2
24%
Ceeya Sunshine (9) J: Luke P Dempsey
quality stable
3
24%
Geegees Avalanche (8) J: Erica Byrne Burke
flying form
4
16%
John Of Jane (6) J: Troy Baker
flying form, quality stable
5Midway Point (2)SCR
6
21%
Unfiltered (10) J: Jackson Radley
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
7
25%
Upheaval (7) J: Kelvin Sanderson
in good form, quality stable
8
20%
Windara Rock It (5) J: Chloe Wells
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
#2
9
25%
Black Raptor (1) J: Sheridan Clarke
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#1
10
32%
Frosty Ruge (2) J: Lauryn Bingley
place chance
11Roland View (11)SCR
#4
12
27%
Royal Scene (4) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
place chance
R2 • 1380m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tea With The Queen Chloe Wells |
3 | 42% | $$5.87 | BEST |
| 2 | Gold Tianna Anthony Darmanin |
5 | 29% | $$9.33 | DANGER |
| 3 | Bruny Boy Bulent Muhcu |
11 | 25% | $$9.81 | |
| 4 | Gold Armour Jackson Radley |
10 | 23% | $$10.73 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
25%
Bruny Boy (11) J: Bulent Muhcu
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form
2
17%
Deng (8) J: Catherine Van Munster
flying form, quality stable
3Gee Gees Brother (12)SCR
#4
4
23%
Gold Armour (10) J: Jackson Radley
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
5
29%
Gold Tianna (5) J: Anthony Darmanin
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
15%
Honest Warrior (7) J: Kelvin Sanderson
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
7
21%
Leo Davinci (1) J: Tayla Cameron
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
8
23%
Nicalbi (9) J: Christopher Pang
proven at distance, quality stable
9
19%
Irish Bloom (6) J: Sheridan Clarke
top jockey, inconsistent
#1
10
42%
Tea With The Queen (3) J: Chloe Wells
quality stable
11
23%
Up To Tori (2) J: Hayley Mc Carthy
top jockey, quality stable
12Wheelewe (2)SCR
13
26%
White Star Suzie (4) J: Troy Baker
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R3 • 1600m • Class 1;
Med Value Bet
Class 1; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Little Bay Sheridan Clarke |
3 | 40% | $$6.12 | BEST |
| 2 | Merlin Beach Anthony Darmanin |
2 | 32% | $$8.34 | DANGER |
| 3 | Rapids Ahead Hayley Mc Carthy |
6 | 31% | $$8.75 | |
| 4 | Don Turboas Erica Byrne Burke |
7 | 30% | $$8.86 |
EACH WAYTab 6 The Little Bay (0.75 unit win + 0.75 unit place)1.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
21%
Beau Warrior (4) J: Kelvin Sanderson
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
2
30%
Don Turboas (7) J: Erica Byrne Burke
track specialist, flying form, top jockey
#2
3
32%
Merlin Beach (2) J: Anthony Darmanin
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
4
31%
Rapids Ahead (6) J: Hayley Mc Carthy
top jockey, quality stable
5
16%
Silver Grange (10) J: Christopher Pang
quality stable
#1
6
40%
The Little Bay (3) J: Sheridan Clarke
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
7
23%
Windara Wolf (9) J: Chloe Wells
quality stable
8
22%
Last Tremble (8) J: Luke P Dempsey
top jockey, quality stable
9
19%
Nataldi (5) J: Bree Temple
top jockey, quality stable
10
21%
Them's The Breaks (1) J: Jackson Radley
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
11
19%
Wet 'n' Dry (11) J: Tayla Cameron
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
Exotics
Quinella: The Little Bay, Merlin Beach
Exacta: The Little Bay / Merlin Beach, Rapids Ahead
Trifecta: Box: The Little Bay, Merlin Beach, Rapids Ahead, Don Turboas
First 4: Box: The Little Bay, Merlin Beach, Rapids Ahead, Don Turboas, Beau Warrior
R4 • 1200m • Class 1;
PASS
Class 1; • Prize: $26000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alpine Ruby Lauryn Bingley |
4 | 25% | $$10.86 | BEST |
| 2 | Geegees Mercedes Anthony Darmanin |
6 | 31% | $$10.99 | DANGER |
| 3 | Southern Auroras Chloe Wells |
12 | 30% | $$11.68 | |
| 4 | Verhoeven Erica Byrne Burke |
9 | 28% | $$12.35 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
21%
Just Plain Nuts (2) J: Hayley Mc Carthy
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
2Savage River (17)SCR
3Fierce 'n Fabulous (15)SCR
4
24%
Geegees Ace (8) J: Christopher Pang
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
5
26%
Cardiosphere (14) J: Kelvin Sanderson
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
6
28%
Verhoeven (9) J: Erica Byrne Burke
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#1
7
25%
Alpine Ruby (4) J: Lauryn Bingley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
8
28%
Snowdonia (11) J: Bree Temple
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
9
30%
Southern Auroras (12) J: Chloe Wells
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
10
23%
Pacific Witness (3) J: Jackson Radley
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
11
31%
Geegees Mercedes (6) J: Anthony Darmanin
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
12Miss Lyra (10)SCR
13
23%
Played Strong (5) J: Bulent Muhcu
track specialist, in good form, quality stable
14
18%
The Pirate Queen (13) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
15
27%
Celestial Glow (1) J: Troy Baker
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
16
25%
Outbush (10) J:
solid track record, quality stable
17
28%
Lady Fern (7) J: Sheridan Clarke
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
R5 • 1200m • Benchmark 68;
PASS
Benchmark 68; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furneaux Tayla Cameron |
2 | 32% | $$6.57 | BEST |
| 2 | Geegees Missile Kirra-Lee Lane |
1 | 32% | $$6.72 | DANGER |
| 3 | Sky Land Erica Byrne Burke |
10 | 28% | $$9.10 | |
| 4 | Araya Sunshine Lauryn Bingley |
5 | 24% | $$9.30 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
32%
Furneaux (2) J: Tayla Cameron
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
2
22%
Captain Cam (6) J: Jackson Radley
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
27%
Alpine Thunder (3) J: Bree Temple
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
4
32%
Geegees Missile (1) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5The Spirit Of Zero (10)SCR
#3
6
28%
Sky Land (10) J: Erica Byrne Burke
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
7
26%
Eastcoast Miss (4) J: Anthony Darmanin
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
8
24%
Araya Sunshine (5) J: Lauryn Bingley
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
9
22%
Geegee Strawberry (8) J: Troy Baker
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10
12%
Mcsweyn (7) J: Bulent Muhcu
looking for others
11
22%
Rare Oro (9) J: Chloe Wells
track specialist, suited to trip, quality stable
R6 • 1380m • Open;
PASS
Open; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buzzoffski Bree Temple |
3 | 33% | $$5.34 | BEST |
| 2 | Momentslikethese Anthony Darmanin |
6 | 36% | $$5.74 | DANGER |
| 3 | Valley Star Kirra-Lee Lane |
8 | 27% | $$6.78 | |
| 4 | Just Begun Christopher Pang |
5 | 26% | $$8.23 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
27%
Valley Star (8) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
track specialist, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#4
2
26%
Just Begun (5) J: Christopher Pang
quality stable
3
15%
Onyx Charm (9) J: Troy Baker
flying form, top jockey
4
15%
Zumumba (7) J: Bulent Muhcu
flying form, inconsistent
#1
5
33%
Buzzoffski (3) J: Bree Temple
track specialist, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#2
6
36%
Momentslikethese (6) J: Anthony Darmanin
track specialist, flying form, top jockey, quality stable
7
21%
All Intrique (1) J: Jackson Radley
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
17%
Lucky Lipstick (4) J: Erica Byrne Burke
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
9
11%
Steel Spaniel (2) J: Lauryn Bingley
flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R7 • 1380m • Open;
Low Value Bet
Open; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blonde Star Erica Byrne Burke |
4 | 36% | $$9.70 | BEST |
| 2 | Wineglass Bay Jackson Radley |
6 | 31% | $$11.41 | DANGER |
| 3 | Alvarinho Kirra-Lee Lane |
10 | 28% | $$13.21 | |
| 4 | The Longest Yard Sheridan Clarke |
3 | 24% | $$14.59 |
EACH WAYTab 1 Blonde Star (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
36%
Blonde Star (4) J: Erica Byrne Burke
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
#2
2
31%
Wineglass Bay (6) J: Jackson Radley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
#3
3
28%
Alvarinho (10) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
4
25%
Sushi Express (15) J: Lauryn Bingley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
23%
Thespian Waters (2) J: Anthony Darmanin
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
6
22%
Sh'bourne Midnight (9) J: Bulent Muhcu
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
7
20%
Spring Bean (8) J: Troy Baker
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
20%
Stone Cold Stunner (13) J: Bree Temple
proven at distance, flying form, class edge, top jockey
9
25%
Zewinna (1) J: Christopher Pang
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
10
25%
Shy Guy (7) J: Chloe Wells
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
11
25%
Just A Needs (12) J: Hayley Mc Carthy
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
12Nicco The Greek (16)SCR
#4
13
24%
The Longest Yard (3) J: Sheridan Clarke
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
14
22%
Rubbleonthedouble (14) J: Tayla Cameron
track specialist, suited to trip, in good form, top jockey
15
26%
Verbano (11) J: Georgie Catania
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
16
21%
Tassie Power (5) J:
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
R8 • 1600m • Benchmark 64;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 64; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Deserve This Hayley Mc Carthy |
9 | 35% | $$10.17 | BEST |
| 2 | Eaglefurther Kirra-Lee Lane |
3 | 31% | $$10.56 | DANGER |
| 3 | Johnnie Pinch Bree Temple |
8 | 28% | $$12.17 | |
| 4 | Sir Jag Anthony Darmanin |
10 | 28% | $$13.20 |
EACH WAYTab 8 We Deserve This (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
Flossing (15) J: Erica Byrne Burke
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
2
28%
Johnnie Pinch (8) J: Bree Temple
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
28%
Miles 'n' Miles (7) J: Christopher Pang
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form
4
26%
Designer Dreamer (6) J: Kelvin Sanderson
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
5
31%
Eaglefurther (3) J: Kirra-Lee Lane
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#4
6
28%
Sir Jag (10) J: Anthony Darmanin
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
7
21%
Stardarmus (12) J: Luke P Dempsey
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
#1
8
35%
We Deserve This (9) J: Hayley Mc Carthy
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
9
21%
Thisismyturf (14) J: Lauryn Bingley
in good form, top jockey
10
24%
Native Clan (11) J: Sheridan Clarke
track specialist, suited to trip, in good form, top jockey
11
27%
Reservoir Dog (2) J: Troy Baker
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey
12
24%
Carnelian Rock (4) J: Chloe Wells
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
13
21%
High Tail Eagle (13) J: Jackson Radley
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
14
24%
Mateus (5) J: Bulent Muhcu
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
15
22%
Steele My Sunshine (1) J: Catherine Van Munster
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R3:
Tab 6 The Little Bay (Barrier 3)
Model: $6.12
1.5 units
Model: $6.12
1.5 units
R7:
Tab 1 Blonde Star (Barrier 4)
Model: $9.70
1 units
Model: $9.70
1 units
R8:
Tab 8 We Deserve This (Barrier 9)
Model: $10.17
1 units
Model: $10.17
1 units
Total Stake: 3.5%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Leading Edge Tips — Professional Racing Analysis
Generated 18/07/2026, 5:58:54 pm