Hobart

TAS • 2026-04-12

Soft Rail: +4m Entire Chance of rain 9°C

Updated: 08:39 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Crystal Moonbeam

Best Bet

None

Best Value

100%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Hobart

Weather: Hobart, TAS • 5°–9°C • Rain 68% • Wind 28km/h WSW

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

D Pires: 7W from 19 (36.8% win, 57.9% place)
B Muhcu: 5W from 18 (27.8% win, 55.6% place)
Georgie Catania: 4W from 17 (23.5% win, 52.9% place)
M Ulucinar: 3W from 15 (20.0% win, 46.7% place)
Jabez Johnstone: 2W from 18 (11.1% win, 50.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1400m • Maiden;12:00

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Arianna's Gold Troy Baker	6	35%	$$26.06	BEST
2	I'm A Machine Erica Byrne Burke	3	31%	$$1.69	DANGER
3	Kion's Kingdom David Pires	4	24%	N/A
4	A Queens Buzz Codi Jordan	2	30%	N/A

Placed 2nd of 6 last start (0.1L).
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.

No edge detected — race passed.

⚖️

SPEED MAP

1400m

EVEN PACE

True run race - genuine test

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

—

None

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Arianna's Gold

Barrier 6

PRESSER

—

Kion's Kingdom

Barrier 4

PRESSER

—

A Queens Buzz

Barrier 2

PRESSER

—

Geegees Big Bird

Barrier 7

MIDFIELD

—

Gold Tianna

Barrier 1

MIDFIELD

—

Lucky Country

Barrier 9

MIDFIELD

—

I'm A Machine

Barrier 3

BACKMARKER

—

Monclere

Barrier 8

BACKMARKER

—

Symphony Queen

Barrier 9

BACKMARKER

—

Vostok Station

Barrier 5

BACKMARKER

—

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

Geegees Big Bird (7) J: Kasi Boxall

place chance

23%

Gold Tianna (1) J: Polly Brewster

quality stable

19%

#2 3

I'm A Machine (3) J: Erica Byrne Burke

solid track record, in good form, top jockey

31%

#3 4

Kion's Kingdom (4) J: David Pires

proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable

24%

Monclere (8) J: Mehmet Ulucinar

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

28%

Vostok Station (5) J: Lizzie Annells

inconsistent

16%

Lucky Country (9) J: Daniel Ganderton

in good form, top jockey

18%

#1 8

Arianna's Gold (6) J: Troy Baker

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

35%

#4 9

A Queens Buzz (2) J: Codi Jordan

proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

30%

Symphony Queen (9) J:

proven at distance, flying form, quality stable

23%

R2 • 1200m • Maiden;12:00

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Can't Catch Chilli Mehmet Ulucinar	6	35%	$$6.99	BEST
2	Raider's Own Kelvin Sanderson	2	36%	$$4.14	DANGER
3	The Real Man	2	27%	$$2.24
4	Cardiosphere Lizzie Annells	3	27%	$$2.42

Placed 2nd of 4 last start (4.0L).
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.

No edge detected — race passed.

⚖️

SPEED MAP

1200m

EVEN PACE

True run race - genuine test

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

None

—

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Queen Of Rap

Barrier 1

LEADER

—

Can't Catch Chilli

Barrier 6

PRESSER

—

Cardiosphere

Barrier 3

PRESSER

—

Up The Cups

Barrier 4

PRESSER

—

Raider's Own

Barrier 2

MIDFIELD

—

The Real Man

Barrier 2

MIDFIELD

—

Primrose Boy

Barrier 5

MIDFIELD

—

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

#4 1

Cardiosphere (3) J: Lizzie Annells

quality stable, inconsistent

27%

#2 2

Raider's Own (2) J: Kelvin Sanderson

suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable

36%

Primrose Boy (5) J: David Pires

in good form, top jockey

20%

#3 4

The Real Man (2) J:

in good form, quality stable

27%

Up The Cups (4) J: Lauryn Bingley

flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

#1 6

Can't Catch Chilli (6) J: Mehmet Ulucinar

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

35%

Queen Of Rap (1) J: Kirra-Lee Lane

flying form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

10%

R3 • 1200m • Class 1;12:00

Low Value Bet

Class 1; • Prize: $26000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Crystal Moonbeam Georgie Catania	1	38%	$$16.60	BEST
2	Lady Fern Lauryn Bingley	4	27%	$$1.93	DANGER
3	Creek Lodge Lizzie Annells	5	19%	$$3.72
4	Moonglow Miss Codi Jordan	6	21%	N/A

Placed 2nd of 10 last start (1.5L).
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
Lone speed — can dictate tempo on its own

LONE SPEED

WIN#4 Crystal Moonbeam1% of bank

🐢

SPEED MAP

1200m

SLOW PACE

No pressure - leader advantaged

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

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Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

▼

—

▲

None

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Crystal Moonbeam

Barrier 1

PRESSER

▲

Moonglow Miss

Barrier 6

MIDFIELD

—

Live On Love

Barrier 5

MIDFIELD

—

Super Snippy

Barrier 2

MIDFIELD

—

Lady Fern

Barrier 4

BACKMARKER

▼

Creek Lodge

Barrier 5

BACKMARKER

▼

Master Of Mischief

Barrier 3

BACKMARKER

▼

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

Live On Love (5) J: David Pires

track specialist, flying form, top jockey

21%

#3 2

Creek Lodge (5) J: Lizzie Annells

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

19%

Super Snippy (2) J: Erica Byrne Burke

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

19%

#1 4

Crystal Moonbeam (1) J: Georgie Catania

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

38%

#2 5

Lady Fern (4) J: Lauryn Bingley

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

27%

Master Of Mischief (3) J: Lauren Burke

proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

18%

#4 7

Moonglow Miss (6) J: Codi Jordan

top jockey, quality stable

21%

R4 • 2000m • Class 1;12:00

PASS

Class 1; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Sir Jag Troy Baker	5	34%	$$5.41	BEST
2	Lyco Reco Chloe Wells	12	29%	N/A	DANGER
3	South Georgia Lauren Burke	7	29%	$$12.93
4	Veins Within Rock Jett Stanley	6	24%	N/A

Placed 2nd of 5 last start (0.1L).
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 2000m without placing — distance may not suit.
Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.

No edge detected — race passed.

⚖️

SPEED MAP

2000m

EVEN PACE

True run race - genuine test

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

—

None

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Bulbuk

Barrier 13

PRESSER

—

Miss Terasita

Barrier 2

PRESSER

—

Sir Jag

Barrier 5

MIDFIELD

—

Lyco Reco

Barrier 12

MIDFIELD

—

South Georgia

Barrier 7

MIDFIELD

—

Veins Within Rock

Barrier 6

MIDFIELD

—

Geegees Royal Duke

Barrier 9

MIDFIELD

—

No Surprises

Barrier 1

MIDFIELD

—

Whisper Of Matilda

Barrier 10

BACKMARKER

—

Star Performer

Barrier 4

BACKMARKER

—

Them's The Breaks

Barrier 8

BACKMARKER

—

Lord Hear Us

Barrier 3

BACKMARKER

—

Miss Niagara

Barrier 11

BACKMARKER

—

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

Bulbuk (13) J: Kirra-Lee Lane

top jockey, quality stable

23%

Geegees Royal Duke (9) J: Christopher Pang

in good form, quality stable

22%

#1 3

Sir Jag (5) J: Troy Baker

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

34%

#4 4

Veins Within Rock (6) J: Jett Stanley

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

24%

Lord Hear Us (3) J: David Pires

solid track record, in good form, top jockey

24%

#2 6

Lyco Reco (12) J: Chloe Wells

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

29%

Miss Niagara (11) J: Codi Jordan

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

21%

Miss Terasita (2) J: Lizzie Annells

solid track record

15%

No Surprises (1) J: Georgie Catania

top jockey

22%

#3 10

South Georgia (7) J: Lauren Burke

track specialist, top jockey

29%

Star Performer (4) J: Lauryn Bingley

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Them's The Breaks (8) J: Erica Byrne Burke

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

24%

Whisper Of Matilda (10) J: Bulent Muhcu

track specialist

26%

R5 • 2000m • Benchmark 64;12:00

Low Value Bet

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $25000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Tideford Mehmet Ulucinar	5	38%	$$6.57	BEST
2	Iffycould Christopher Pang	2	32%	$$6.53	DANGER
3	Reservoir Dog Erica Byrne Burke	12	28%	N/A
4	Florence Glass Troy Baker	1	29%	$$8.79

Placed 3rd of 7 last start (1.2L).
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 2000m without placing — distance may not suit.
Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.

WIN#5 Tideford1% of bank

🔥

SPEED MAP

2000m

HOT PACE

Multiple early speed - closers advantaged

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

▲▲

▲

—

▼

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Tideford

Barrier 5

LEADER

▼

Fashion Fox

Barrier 7

LEADER

▼

Speed Rock

Barrier 8

LEADER

▼

Reservoir Dog

Barrier 12

PRESSER

—

Royal Dispatch

Barrier 7

PRESSER

—

Moorlands Miss

Barrier 9

PRESSER

—

Florence Glass

Barrier 1

MIDFIELD

▲

Stratojack

Barrier 3

MIDFIELD

▲

Alpine Trout

Barrier 4

MIDFIELD

▲

Scarletti

Barrier 6

MIDFIELD

▲

Always A Winner

Barrier 10

MIDFIELD

▲

Manhattan Nights

Barrier 10

MIDFIELD

▲

Iffycould

Barrier 2

BACKMARKER

▲▲

Goddess Of Rock

Barrier 11

BACKMARKER

▲▲

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Iffycould (2) J: Christopher Pang

proven at distance, in good form, proven at level, quality stable

32%

Always A Winner (10) J: Kirra-Lee Lane

track specialist, top jockey, quality stable

20%

Scarletti (6) J: Lauren Burke

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Royal Dispatch (7) J: Georgie Catania

track specialist, top jockey

22%

#1 5

Tideford (5) J: Mehmet Ulucinar

proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable

38%

Moorlands Miss (9) J: Jett Stanley

track specialist, top jockey, quality stable

19%

Fashion Fox (7) J: David Pires

track specialist, in good form, top jockey

21%

Manhattan Nights (10) J: Lauryn Bingley

top jockey, quality stable

22%

Alpine Trout (4) J: Chloe Wells

track specialist, top jockey, quality stable

27%

Goddess Of Rock (11) J: Polly Brewster

track specialist, quality stable

22%

#3 11

Reservoir Dog (12) J: Erica Byrne Burke

proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey

28%

Speed Rock (8) J: Bulent Muhcu

solid track record, proven at distance

21%

#4 13

Florence Glass (1) J: Troy Baker

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

29%

Stratojack (3) J: Codi Jordan

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

27%

R6 • 1100m • Class 4;12:00

Low Value Bet

Class 4; • Prize: $29000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Material Madam Mehmet Ulucinar	4	37%	$$3.63	BEST
2	Obviously Good Troy Baker	3	26%	$$6.89	DANGER
3	Flying Concello David Pires	8	24%	$$49.14
4	Geegeehailstorm Erica Byrne Burke	1	26%	$$4.08

Won last start by 1.0L at Launceston over 1100m.
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 1100m without placing — distance may not suit.
Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.

WIN#6 Material Madam1% of bank

🔥

SPEED MAP

1100m

HOT PACE

Multiple early speed - closers advantaged

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

▲▲

▲

—

▼

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Volkanovski

Barrier 1

LEADER

▼

Steele My Sunshine

Barrier 2

LEADER

▼

Material Madam

Barrier 4

PRESSER

—

Obviously Good

Barrier 3

PRESSER

—

Flying Concello

Barrier 8

PRESSER

—

Miss Keeds

Barrier 7

PRESSER

—

Geegeehailstorm

Barrier 1

MIDFIELD

▲

Swinging It

Barrier 6

BACKMARKER

▲▲

Esprit Diva

Barrier 5

BACKMARKER

▲▲

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

#2 1

Obviously Good (3) J: Troy Baker

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Volkanovski (1) J: Jett Stanley

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

25%

#3 3

Flying Concello (8) J: David Pires

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

24%

Miss Keeds (7) J: Bulent Muhcu

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

25%

Esprit Diva (5) J: Lizzie Annells

track specialist, quality stable, inconsistent

21%

#1 6

Material Madam (4) J: Mehmet Ulucinar

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey

37%

Steele My Sunshine (2) J: Christopher Pang

track specialist, quality stable

13%

#4 8

Geegeehailstorm (1) J: Erica Byrne Burke

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Swinging It (6) J: Codi Jordan

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

26%

R7 • 1400m • Class 1;12:00

Med Value Bet

Class 1; • Prize: $26000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Christopher Robin Jett Stanley	1	42%	$$2.52	BEST
2	Ice Crystal Troy Baker	10	26%	N/A	DANGER
3	Argyll Diamond Bulent Muhcu	5	26%	$$15.55
4	Rippen Gold Polly Brewster	7	26%	$$5.06

Finished 7th last start, 5.0L off winner.
Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.

WIN#6 Christopher Robin1% of bank

🔥

SPEED MAP

1400m

HOT PACE

Multiple early speed - closers advantaged

START ←

→ FINISH 🏁

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

▲▲

▲

—

None

Back

Midfield

Pressers

Leaders

Running Style Breakdown

Ice Crystal

Barrier 10

PRESSER

—

Argyll Diamond

Barrier 5

PRESSER

—

Rippen Gold

Barrier 7

PRESSER

—

Alpine Honey

Barrier 9

PRESSER

—

Genuine Lady

Barrier 3

PRESSER

—

Wild Nights

Barrier 4

MIDFIELD

▲

Blooming Edge

Barrier 6

MIDFIELD

▲

Christopher Robin

Barrier 1

BACKMARKER

▲▲

The Tazwegian

Barrier 8

BACKMARKER

▲▲

Toganmain

Barrier 2

BACKMARKER

▲▲

▲▲ Strong advantage ▲ Slight advantage — Neutral ▼ Disadvantaged

Full Field Analysis

Alpine Honey (9) J: Lizzie Annells

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

25%

#4 2

Rippen Gold (7) J: Polly Brewster

solid track record

26%

Blooming Edge (6) J: David Pires

in good form, proven at level, top jockey, quality stable

19%

Genuine Lady (3) J: Erica Byrne Burke

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

23%

#3 5

Argyll Diamond (5) J: Bulent Muhcu

track specialist, in good form

26%

#1 6

Christopher Robin (1) J: Jett Stanley

solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey

42%

The Tazwegian (8) J: Chloe Wells

solid track record, top jockey, quality stable

21%

Toganmain (2) J: Codi Jordan

top jockey, quality stable

11%

Wild Nights (4) J: Lauryn Bingley

top jockey, quality stable

22%

#2 10

Ice Crystal (10) J: Troy Baker

proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

R3: #4 Crystal Moonbeam (Barrier 1) UNDERLAY -79%
Model: $16.60
1% of bank

R5: #5 Tideford (Barrier 5)
Model: $6.57
1% of bank

R6: #6 Material Madam (Barrier 4)
Model: $3.63
1% of bank

R7: #6 Christopher Robin (Barrier 1)
Model: $2.52
1% of bank

Total Stake: 4.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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Tips are analysis tools, not guarantees. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.