Hawkesbury

2026-07-19

Soft Rail: True

Updated: 20:47 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Surf Sonic

Best Bet

None

Best Value

100%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Hawkesbury

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

Dylan Gibbons: 3W from 4 (75.0% win, 75.0% place)
Rachel King: 3W from 5 (60.0% win, 80.0% place)
Mitchell Bell: 3W from 7 (42.9% win, 71.4% place)
Ms W Costin: 2W from 5 (40.0% win, 40.0% place)
Olivia Chambers: 2W from 9 (22.2% win, 55.6% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1100m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Iambubb Jeff Penza	6	42%	$$4.66	BEST
2	Viva Macaco Chad Schofield	3	23%	$$6.73	DANGER
3	Iniesta Dylan Gibbons	7	23%	$$6.96
4	Fawlty Affairs Keagan Latham	5	23%	$$8.29

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Hy (1) J: Jett Newman

track specialist, in good form

20%

#3 2

Iniesta (7) J: Dylan Gibbons

in good form

23%

3Mission Wise (7)SCR

Northy Lad (4) J: Rachel King

in good form

14%

Real Mccoy (8) J: Jay Ford

inconsistent

13%

#4 6

Fawlty Affairs (5) J: Keagan Latham

place chance

23%

#1 7

Iambubb (6) J: Jeff Penza

track specialist, in good form

42%

Stronghold (2) J: Regan Bayliss

flying form

14%

#2 9

Viva Macaco (3) J: Chad Schofield

track specialist, flying form

23%

R2 • 1100m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Zunesha Tyler Schiller	7	36%	$$10.04	BEST
2	Appin Opal Alysha Collett	8	29%	$$10.87	DANGER
3	Machrihanish Chad Schofield	11	28%	$$10.98
4	Ho Aloha Regan Bayliss	6	37%	$$11.19

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1Acharnee (8)SCR

#2 2

Appin Opal (8) J: Alysha Collett

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

29%

#4 3

Ho Aloha (6) J: Regan Bayliss

solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

37%

Kirkhoepasse (9) J: Reece Jones

flying form, top jockey

19%

Magic Kaya (13) J: Jay Ford

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

16%

6Majestic Legend (8)SCR

Peri (12) J: Andrew Adkins

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

18%

Spud Gun (5) J: Louise Day

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

15%

Thinkshe's Ausbred (2) J: Rachel King

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

16%

Miss Moulaga (4) J: Keagan Latham

in good form, top jockey, inconsistent

18%

Mobilise (1) J: Mitch Stapleford

flying form, quality stable

14%

Queen's Gamble (14) J: Siena Grima

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

17%

Rebel Elegance (10) J: Mitchell Bell

in good form, quality stable

19%

#1 14

Zunesha (7) J: Tyler Schiller

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

36%

Denise's Gal (3) J:

suited to trip, in good form, quality stable

25%

#3 16

Machrihanish (11) J: Chad Schofield

top jockey, quality stable

28%

R3 • 1500m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Che Ole Andrew Adkins	1	24%	$$4.39	BEST
2	Goddess Minerva Jeff Penza	5	24%	$$4.70	DANGER
3	Sirius Moss Alysha Collett	2	22%	$$5.30
4	Blazing Future Adam Farragher	3	25%	$$5.30

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#4 1

Blazing Future (3) J: Adam Farragher

top jockey, quality stable

25%

2Heeza Steve (4)SCR

Orange Tsunami (4) J: Jean Van Overmeire

top jockey, quality stable

21%

#1 4

Che Ole (1) J: Andrew Adkins

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

24%

#2 5

Goddess Minerva (5) J: Jeff Penza

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

24%

6Proxima Centauri (7)SCR

7She Can Salsa (5)SCR

#3 8

Sirius Moss (2) J: Alysha Collett

in good form, top jockey

22%

9Who I Think I Am (7)SCR

R4 • 2000m • Class 1;

PASS

Class 1; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Airliner Siena Grima	2	27%	$$5.49	BEST
2	Wizard's Star Jay Ford	3	26%	$$6.04	DANGER
3	Ruskana Rachel King	7	26%	$$6.48
4	My Shareena Alysha Collett	5	25%	$$7.14

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Airliner (2) J: Siena Grima

top jockey, quality stable

27%

2Deal N' Dash (7)SCR

Longinus (6) J: Andrew Adkins

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

18%

4Portsmouth (4)SCR

5Queen Tavane (8)SCR

#2 6

Wizard's Star (3) J: Jay Ford

solid track record, in good form, top jockey

26%

#4 7

My Shareena (5) J: Alysha Collett

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

25%

Chuckler (4) J: Louise Day

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

Room For Pudd (1) J: Chad Schofield

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

#3 10

Ruskana (7) J: Rachel King

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

R5 • 1300m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $45000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Share The Joy Jeff Penza	6	44%	$$6.59	BEST
2	Cape Douglas Tyler Schiller	2	29%	$$8.79	DANGER
3	Elle Tee Jess Taylor	4	23%	$$9.46
4	Cosmora Grant Buckley	8	29%	$$9.65

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Sono Immortale (10) J: Lee Magorrian

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

14%

2Mission Wise (1)SCR

Banner Banner (5) J: Olivia Chambers

quality stable

20%

Ironblood Empress (11) J: Chad Schofield

in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

14%

#2 5

Cape Douglas (2) J: Tyler Schiller

top jockey, quality stable

29%

#4 6

Cosmora (8) J: Grant Buckley

quality stable, inconsistent

29%

#3 7

Elle Tee (4) J: Jess Taylor

inconsistent

23%

Lucky Monkey (3) J: Robyn Freeman

proven at distance, top jockey

21%

Prankaj (12) J: Jay Ford

top jockey, quality stable

22%

Red Deer (7) J: Siena Grima

top jockey, inconsistent

20%

#1 11

Share The Joy (6) J: Jeff Penza

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

44%

Warm Front (9) J: Alysha Collett

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

21%

R6 • 1500m • Benchmark 64;

Med Value Bet

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Johnny Smash Reece Jones	6	40%	$$5.48	BEST
2	Silver Tempest Alysha Collett	3	28%	$$7.38	DANGER
3	Castagnola Dylan Gibbons	8	21%	$$8.36
4	Flying From Above Siena Grima	1	24%	$$8.43

EACH WAYTab 10 Johnny Smash (0.75 unit win + 0.75 unit place)1.5 units

Full Field Analysis

#3 1

Castagnola (8) J: Dylan Gibbons

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

21%

The Replicant (5) J: Chad Schofield

solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

20%

3Viva Mauricio (9)SCR

#4 4

Flying From Above (1) J: Siena Grima

class edge, top jockey

24%

5My Charm (8)SCR

#2 6

Silver Tempest (3) J: Alysha Collett

top jockey, quality stable

28%

Pawa (7) J: Rachel King

track specialist, top jockey

21%

8Royal Chic (1)SCR

Girly Pop (4) J: Olivia Chambers

solid track record, in good form, quality stable

23%

#1 10

Johnny Smash (6) J: Reece Jones

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

40%

Green Pineapple (2) J: Adam Farragher

top jockey

20%

R7 • 1300m • Benchmark 64;

Med Value Bet

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $45000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Surf Sonic Jay Ford	9	45%	$$7.08	BEST
2	Last Druid Alysha Collett	2	26%	$$9.29	DANGER
3	Lugarno Chad Schofield	12	26%	$$11.66
4	Killer Kerr Olivia Chambers	3	24%	$$11.78

EACH WAYTab 14 Surf Sonic (1 unit win + 1 unit place)2 units

Full Field Analysis

Etched In Time (7) J: Keagan Latham

top jockey, quality stable

18%

#3 2

Lugarno (12) J: Chad Schofield

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

26%

#2 3

Last Druid (2) J: Alysha Collett

track specialist, flying form, top jockey, quality stable

26%

Prince Harrison (10) J:

solid track record, in good form, quality stable

24%

5Apache Breeze (4)SCR

Philatelic (4) J: Tyler Schiller

proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

19%

Prefer Diamonds (6) J:

track specialist, quality stable

21%

Rotho Bro (11) J: Louise Day

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

21%

Smart Cry (5) J: Rachel King

top jockey, quality stable

18%

Spiritualistic (1) J: Dylan Gibbons

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

22%

Astrogazer (8) J: Robyn Freeman

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

22%

#4 12

Killer Kerr (3) J: Olivia Chambers

proven at distance, quality stable

24%

13Mane Character (2)SCR

#1 14

Surf Sonic (9) J: Jay Ford

proven at distance, top jockey

45%

R8 • 1100m • Benchmark 64;

PASS

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Apollo Ridge Mitchell Bell	1	37%	$$10.33	BEST
2	Spare Rory Hutchings	5	25%	$$11.41	DANGER
3	Lady Shenanigans Olivia Chambers	8	29%	$$11.93
4	Light Infantry Siena Grima	2	28%	$$12.24

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Apollo Ridge (1) J: Mitchell Bell

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

37%

Gambler (7) J: Alysha Collett

track specialist, suited to trip, in good form, class edge

27%

3Johnny (15)SCR

Desi Emperor (13) J: Keagan Latham

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

21%

Lull (14) J:

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

Gilette (11) J: Jett Newman

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

25%

#4 7

Light Infantry (2) J: Siena Grima

suited to trip, in good form, top jockey

28%

#2 8

Spare (5) J: Rory Hutchings

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey

25%

Overtook (9) J: Louise Day

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

19%

Silk Lace (10) J: Emma Ly

flying form, top jockey, quality stable

23%

Twinkling Star (12) J: Rachel King

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey

25%

#3 12

Lady Shenanigans (8) J: Olivia Chambers

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

29%

Seven Days (4) J: Chad Schofield

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

23%

Boambee Beach (3) J: Jay Ford

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

22%

15Difensivo (3)SCR

Sapphire Kiss (6) J:

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

17%

Exotics — Hawkesbury

Quaddies

Last 4 Quaddie

Leg 1 — R5 OPEN*

11 Share The Joy 44%

5 Cape Douglas 29%

7 Elle Tee 23%

6 Cosmora 29%

Leg 2 — R6 STRONG

10 Johnny Smash 40%

6 Silver Tempest 28%

Leg 3 — R7 STRONG

14 Surf Sonic 45%

3 Last Druid 26%

Leg 4 — R8 AVOID

1 Apollo Ridge 37%

8 Spare 25%

12 Lady Shenanigans 29%

7 Light Infantry 28%

Staking: 64 combos | $64.00 for 100%
$20 = 31% | $50 = 78%

Value Cut Quaddie COST SAVER

Banker R6 to cut cost — 32 combos vs 64 full

Leg 1 — R5 OPEN*

11 Share The Joy 44%

5 Cape Douglas 29%

7 Elle Tee 23%

6 Cosmora 29%

Leg 2 — R6 BANKER ★

10 Johnny Smash 40%

Leg 3 — R7 STRONG

14 Surf Sonic 45%

3 Last Druid 26%

Leg 4 — R8 AVOID

1 Apollo Ridge 37%

8 Spare 25%

12 Lady Shenanigans 29%

7 Light Infantry 28%

Staking: 32 combos | $32.00 for 100%
$20 = 63% | $50 = 156%

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

R6: Tab 10 Johnny Smash (Barrier 6)
Model: $5.48
1.5 units

R7: Tab 14 Surf Sonic (Barrier 9)
Model: $7.08
2 units

Total Stake: 3.5%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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