Hawkesbury

2026-06-04

Soft Rail: True

Updated: 18:11 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Hammoon Heroine

Best Bet

None

Best Value

100%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Hawkesbury

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

Ashley Morgan: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 66.7% place)
L Magorrian: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 50.0% place)
Tyler Schiller: 1W from 7 (14.3% win, 42.9% place)
J Ford: 0W from 6 (0.0% win, 33.3% place)
Molly Bourke: 0W from 4 (0.0% win, 25.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1800m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Scoop The Pool Andrew Adkins	2	28%	$$5.84	BEST
2	Circus Girl Jay Ford	7	26%	$$6.12	DANGER
3	Sharbino Mitchell Bell	3	25%	$$6.78
4	Donatello Tommy Berry	5	24%	$$7.09

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Master Of War (4) J: Ashley Morgan

place chance

21%

#4 2

Donatello (5) J: Tommy Berry

place chance

24%

#1 3

Scoop The Pool (2) J: Andrew Adkins

in good form

28%

4Time For Snow (4)SCR

#2 5

Circus Girl (7) J: Jay Ford

inconsistent

26%

Aurora Effect (6) J: Sam Clipperton

place chance

23%

Chaithnia (1) J: Kerrin Mc Evoy

looking for others

18%

#3 8

Sharbino (3) J: Mitchell Bell

place chance

25%

R2 • 1100m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Mind Ya Bizz Tommy Berry	6	41%	$$4.05	BEST
2	Ho Aloha Alysha Collett	8	41%	$$4.67	DANGER
3	Bold Alliance Emma Ly	3	17%	$$8.79
4	Stardust Memories Regan Bayliss	5	18%	$$8.79

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Appin Opal (4) J: Jason Collett

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

19%

#3 2

Bold Alliance (3) J: Emma Ly

top jockey, quality stable

17%

#2 3

Ho Aloha (8) J: Alysha Collett

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

41%

#1 4

Mind Ya Bizz (6) J: Tommy Berry

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

41%

5Monocru (1)SCR

6Rising Revolution (1)SCR

#4 7

Stardust Memories (5) J: Regan Bayliss

in good form, quality stable

18%

Tszinsi (2) J: Jeff Penza

looking for others

14%

Scuro Star (7) J: Rachel King

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

14%

R3 • 1400m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $45000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Jonson Deanne Panya	9	29%	$$6.58	BEST
2	Yes Arnie Brock Ryan	1	29%	$$7.59	DANGER
3	Kuwait Jay Ford	3	25%	$$8.40
4	Lady Winston Rachel King	8	23%	$$8.78

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Jonson (9) J: Deanne Panya

proven at distance, in good form, proven at level, top jockey

29%

Cellito Sands (7) J: Grant Buckley

quality stable, inconsistent

15%

Yeszem (2) J: Tyler Schiller

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

19%

4Another Mission (4)SCR

Heard Of Him (4) J: Ashley Morgan

flying form, top jockey

17%

Acquaro (5) J: Siena Grima

in good form

18%

Heeza Steve (6) J: Emma Ly

top jockey, inconsistent

25%

#3 8

Kuwait (3) J: Jay Ford

quality stable

25%

#4 9

Lady Winston (8) J: Rachel King

top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

23%

#2 10

Yes Arnie (1) J: Brock Ryan

proven at distance, in good form

29%

R4 • 1500m • Class 1;

Med Value Bet

Class 1; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Hammoon Heroine Reece Jones	4	41%	$$4.46	BEST
2	Obsidian Dream Sam Clipperton	6	23%	$$6.00	DANGER
3	Rose Water Siena Grima	2	24%	$$7.01
4	Clear Blue Day Lee Magorrian	1	23%	$$7.03

WINTab 5 Hammoon Heroine1.5 units

Full Field Analysis

Abandonment (3) J: Tommy Berry

in good form, quality stable

17%

Call Me Mojo (5) J: Kerrin Mc Evoy

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

16%

#4 3

Clear Blue Day (1) J: Lee Magorrian

track specialist, in good form

23%

4Microgravity (8)SCR

#1 5

Hammoon Heroine (4) J: Reece Jones

proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, quality stable

41%

#2 6

Obsidian Dream (6) J: Sam Clipperton

track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

23%

#3 7

Rose Water (2) J: Siena Grima

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

24%

Johnny Smash (7) J: L P Beuzelin

place chance

22%

R5 • 1000m • Maiden;

PASS

Maiden; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Majestic Legend Jason Collett	6	43%	$$3.59	BEST
2	Reign 'em In Tom Sherry	2	38%	$$3.79	DANGER
3	Shangri La Rose Rachel King	4	15%	$$7.69
4	Radicals Kerrin Mc Evoy	7	14%	$$8.59

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Cosmic Order (1) J: Ashley Morgan

in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

13%

2Lady Invictus (8)SCR

#1 3

Majestic Legend (6) J: Jason Collett

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

43%

4Monocru (5)SCR

#4 5

Radicals (7) J: Kerrin Mc Evoy

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

14%

#2 6

Reign 'em In (2) J: Tom Sherry

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey

38%

7Rising Revolution (8)SCR

#3 8

Shangri La Rose (4) J: Rachel King

in good form, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent

15%

Shinko Star (3) J: Tyler Schiller

flying form, top jockey, inconsistent

11%

R6 • 1300m • Class 1;

PASS

Class 1; • Prize: $45000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Rustemo Jason Collett	2	30%	$$7.06	BEST
2	Sapling Kerrin Mc Evoy	6	27%	$$8.16	DANGER
3	Turning Circle Shannen Llewellyn	5	25%	$$8.95
4	Missie Lee Jay Ford	10	24%	$$10.44

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Rustemo (2) J: Jason Collett

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

30%

#2 2

Sapling (6) J: Kerrin Mc Evoy

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

27%

Ima Capri (1) J: Lee Magorrian

track specialist

21%

Hunter One (9) J: Brock Ryan

flying form

18%

Bikini Babe (4) J: Jess Taylor

in good form, top jockey

14%

Koritsi (8) J: Chad Lever

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

24%

#4 7

Missie Lee (10) J: Jay Ford

solid track record, quality stable

24%

#3 8

Turning Circle (5) J: Shannen Llewellyn

in good form, top jockey, quality stable

25%

Exothrill (3) J: Olivia Chambers

suited to trip, quality stable, inconsistent

24%

Girly Pop (7) J: Rachel King

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

20%

R7 • 1100m • Benchmark 64;

PASS

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Still Alice Jeff Penza	5	29%	$$8.46	BEST
2	Gandalf Tyler Schiller	8	27%	$$8.79	DANGER
3	Lady Shenanigans Olivia Chambers	2	28%	$$8.87
4	Magnolia Jewel Shannen Llewellyn	9	25%	$$9.19

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Divine Vicky (3) J: Siena Grima

proven at distance, quality stable

27%

Prinzerro (1) J: Kerrin Mc Evoy

proven at distance, class edge, top jockey

20%

#1 3

Still Alice (5) J: Jeff Penza

proven at distance

29%

Light Infantry (6) J: Jason Collett

in good form, top jockey

23%

Gogmagog (7) J: Mollie Fitzgerald

track specialist, quality stable

19%

#2 6

Gandalf (8) J: Tyler Schiller

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

27%

#3 7

Lady Shenanigans (2) J: Olivia Chambers

track specialist, proven at distance, inconsistent

28%

#4 8

Magnolia Jewel (9) J: Shannen Llewellyn

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

25%

Midnight Dream (10) J: Jacob Stiff

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

25%

Clifton Springs (4) J: Deanne Panya

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

23%

R8 • 1800m • Benchmark 64;

PASS

Benchmark 64; • Prize: $42000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Classic Deel Jason Collett	3	30%	$$7.41	BEST
2	Marsabit Reece Jones	6	29%	$$7.79	DANGER
3	Lucky Star Winona Costin	7	25%	$$10.20
4	Devils Daughter Andrew Calder	8	26%	$$10.28

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Coto De Caza (5) J: Siena Grima

solid track record, proven at level

17%

#1 2

Classic Deel (3) J: Jason Collett

track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable

30%

Just Shane (9) J:

place chance

22%

Egyptologist (11) J: Jake Pracey-Holmes

in good form

17%

#3 5

Lucky Star (7) J: Winona Costin

proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable

25%

Binkou (2) J: Zac Wadick

solid track record, top jockey

21%

7Zizette (4)SCR

#2 8

Marsabit (6) J: Reece Jones

proven at distance, class edge, top jockey, quality stable

29%

Koning (10) J: Ashley Morgan

proven at distance, class edge, top jockey

21%

#4 10

Devils Daughter (8) J: Andrew Calder

proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent

26%

Flats (1) J: Olivia Chambers

quality stable

26%

Farraige (4) J: Adam Farragher

proven at distance, quality stable

22%

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

R4: Tab 5 Hammoon Heroine (Barrier 4)
Model: $4.46
1.5 units

Total Stake: 1.5%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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