Grafton

2026-10-20

Heavy

Updated: 19:54 AEST

Races Analysed

Bets Found

Sun Topaze

Best Bet

None

Best Value

100%

Data Quality

Track Insights — Grafton

Recent Patterns:

Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys Here:

B Looker: 4W from 13 (30.8% win, 53.8% place)
Liberty Smyth: 3W from 3 (100.0% win, 100.0% place)
Jett Newman: 3W from 13 (23.1% win, 38.5% place)
A Mallyon: 2W from 4 (50.0% win, 50.0% place)
D Peisley: 2W from 10 (20.0% win, 40.0% place)

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 1725m

PASS

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Queen Of Thinking Benjamin Osmond	4	21%	$$5.90	BEST
2	Sarmat Grady Spokes	3	26%	$$6.19	DANGER
3	Armoury Zac Wadick	2	23%	$$6.97
4	Royston Ben Looker	1	23%	$$7.02

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Arabian Legacy (5) J: Danny Peisley

top jockey, inconsistent

22%

#3 2

Armoury (2) J: Zac Wadick

inconsistent

23%

Jieba (6) J: Noriyuki Masuda

flying form, top jockey, inconsistent

17%

Mission Strike (7) J:

inconsistent

18%

#4 5

Royston (1) J: Ben Looker

top jockey, inconsistent

23%

#2 6

Sarmat (3) J: Grady Spokes

place chance

26%

7Final Pretence (7)SCR

#1 8

Queen Of Thinking (4) J: Benjamin Osmond

inconsistent

21%

R2 • 1020m

PASS

Prize: $30000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Parting The Seas Zac Wadick	3	32%	$$7.21	BEST
2	I'm Guessing Mikayla Weir	5	33%	$$7.75	DANGER
3	Dellucy	6	29%	$$8.68
4	Sunny Side Street Noriyuki Masuda	4	19%	$$10.58

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Mama Tried (8) J: Grady Spokes

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

18%

Omaha Bart (2) J: Grace Palmer

in good form, inconsistent

18%

Universal Energy (11) J: Ben Looker

in good form, inconsistent

18%

Overabundant (7) J: Andrew Mallyon

flying form, inconsistent

18%

#1 5

Parting The Seas (3) J: Zac Wadick

place chance

32%

6Ayaka (2)SCR

Veloce Vixen (9) J: Daniel Smith

inconsistent

12%

Glowing Mist (1) J: Matthew Palmer

inconsistent

15%

#2 9

I'm Guessing (5) J: Mikayla Weir

in good form, quality stable

33%

Sienna Of Brighton (10) J: Karl Zechner

in good form, inconsistent

13%

#4 11

Sunny Side Street (4) J: Noriyuki Masuda

flying form, quality stable, inconsistent

19%

#3 12

Dellucy (6) J:

place chance

29%

13Encontre (6)SCR

R3 • 1220m

PASS

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Plume Daniel Smith	3	26%	$$7.09	BEST
2	Sea Turtle Matthew Palmer	7	25%	$$7.58	DANGER
3	Naystar Jett Newman	6	26%	$$7.69
4	Dancing By Karl Zechner	9	24%	$$8.20

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Ace Haz (5) J: Scott Sheargold

in good form, quality stable

20%

2Encontre (1)SCR

3Logan Downs (11)SCR

#2 4

Sea Turtle (7) J: Matthew Palmer

proven at distance

25%

Deep Affection (8) J:

proven at level

15%

6Duchess Difficult (1)SCR

Limbazi (2) J: Ben Looker

flying form

19%

#1 8

Plume (3) J: Daniel Smith

suited to trip

26%

#3 9

Naystar (6) J: Jett Newman

in good form

26%

Trackhawk (4) J: Zac Wadick

in good form

16%

Belle Reine (1) J: Violet Soulsby

inconsistent

17%

#4 12

Dancing By (9) J: Karl Zechner

in good form, quality stable

24%

13Sparkling Betty (10)SCR

R4 • 2385m

Low Value Bet

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Sun Topaze Jett Newman	1	38%	$$5.98	BEST
2	California Grass Danny Peisley	3	23%	$$8.05	DANGER
3	Mahuika Maroi Violet Soulsby	7	28%	$$9.02
4	Questionable Anna Weatherlake	8	21%	$$9.86

EACH WAYTab 1 Sun Topaze (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Sun Topaze (1) J: Jett Newman

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

38%

#2 2

California Grass (3) J: Danny Peisley

track specialist, proven at distance, class edge

23%

Cenotes (10) J: Ben Looker

track specialist, quality stable, inconsistent

20%

#3 4

Mahuika Maroi (7) J: Violet Soulsby

track specialist, in good form

28%

#4 5

Questionable (8) J: Anna Weatherlake

flying form

21%

Crunch Time (9) J: Jaden Lloyd

in good form

18%

Flaming Genesis (5) J: Zac Wadick

track specialist, quality stable, inconsistent

18%

Woodland Wonder (6) J: Noriyuki Masuda

track specialist

21%

Papal Miss (2) J: Girish Goomany

proven at distance, quality stable

21%

Smelter (4) J: Archie Mc Colm

looking for others

17%

R5 • 1120m

PASS

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Lady Wardell Archie Mc Colm	3	31%	$$6.89	BEST
2	Humphree Bear Ben Looker	7	30%	$$8.10	DANGER
3	Rich Star Grace Palmer	4	25%	$$9.01
4	Jewels Statement Matthew Palmer	5	24%	$$9.36

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1Beaux Rumble (5)SCR

Poseidon's Son (10) J: Anna Weatherlake

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

19%

#1 3

Lady Wardell (3) J: Archie Mc Colm

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

31%

Volcanic Love (8) J: Danny Peisley

track specialist, proven at distance

20%

#3 5

Rich Star (4) J: Grace Palmer

track specialist, flying form

25%

Damas (1) J:

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

18%

Dune And Dusted (6) J: Mikayla Weir

track specialist, proven at distance, inconsistent

24%

#4 8

Jewels Statement (5) J: Matthew Palmer

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

24%

Sistine Explorer (9) J: Bailie Baker

proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent

16%

Lady Alabama (2) J: Jaden Lloyd

track specialist, quality stable

21%

#2 11

Humphree Bear (7) J: Ben Looker

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

30%

R6 • 1120m

PASS

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Happyaziam Karl Zechner	3	22%	$$8.19	BEST
2	Copenhagen Cat	7	26%	$$8.92	DANGER
3	Brief Authority Andrew Mallyon	6	26%	$$9.14
4	Rosenblum Jett Newman	10	23%	$$9.39

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

Real Mccoy (8) J: Zac Wadick

in good form

20%

2Shame On Sue (4)SCR

3Land Speed (9)SCR

#3 4

Brief Authority (6) J: Andrew Mallyon

track specialist, flying form

26%

Nomomeikushi (9) J: Benjamin Osmond

quality stable

18%

#4 6

Rosenblum (10) J: Jett Newman

proven at distance, quality stable

23%

#1 7

Happyaziam (3) J: Karl Zechner

flying form, quality stable

22%

Pinkish Hue (2) J: Andrew Mallyon

in good form

22%

#2 9

Copenhagen Cat (7) J:

proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

Virginia Breezes (4) J: Jaden Lloyd

quality stable

25%

Cianwood City (1) J: Ben Looker

track specialist, quality stable, inconsistent

22%

Kanmuru (5) J: Daniel Smith

quality stable

24%

R7 • 1625m

PASS

Prize: $27000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Herald Angel	11	29%	$$9.75	BEST
2	Zou Big Boy Peter Graham	5	29%	$$9.80	DANGER
3	Bold Hoi Ho Grady Spokes	13	24%	$$9.82
4	Venom Wolf Danny Peisley	8	26%	$$10.60

No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#3 1

Bold Hoi Ho (13) J: Grady Spokes

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

24%

Northern Decree (7) J: Jaden Lloyd

proven at distance, inconsistent

17%

Silent Call (3) J: Andrew Mallyon

proven at distance

20%

#1 4

Herald Angel (11) J:

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form

29%

Inception (9) J: Siabh Rigley

proven at distance

19%

Ballinderry Sal (6) J: Yvette Lewis

looking for others

17%

#4 7

Venom Wolf (8) J: Danny Peisley

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

#2 8

Zou Big Boy (5) J: Peter Graham

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

29%

Always A Rainbow (12) J: Ben Looker

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

26%

Dark Chill (10) J: Jasper Franklin

proven at distance

19%

Cosmic Coco (1) J: Matthew Palmer

proven at distance, quality stable

23%

Hotzino (2) J: Grace Palmer

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form

24%

Piplup (4) J: Mikayla Weir

form a concern, class edge, inconsistent

13%

14Seething Chuck (10)SCR

R8 • 1425m

Low Value Bet

Prize: $30000

#	Horse	Bar	Conf	Price	Tag
1	Prince Of Prophets Grady Spokes	7	35%	$$7.43	BEST
2	Graceful Warrior Jett Newman	8	33%	$$7.90	DANGER
3	Wild Monarch Andrew Mallyon	1	26%	$$8.91
4	Lolita Siabh Rigley	9	30%	$$9.17

EACH WAYTab 1 Prince Of Prophets (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units

Full Field Analysis

#1 1

Prince Of Prophets (7) J: Grady Spokes

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

35%

Star Of Winston (2) J: Archie Mc Colm

track specialist, proven at distance, flying form

27%

Spicy Wings (11) J:

looking for others

14%

4Sunset Trail (10)SCR

#3 5

Wild Monarch (1) J: Andrew Mallyon

track specialist, flying form, quality stable

26%

Whiskey Miss (6) J: Ben Looker

in good form

18%

#2 7

Graceful Warrior (8) J: Jett Newman

track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable

33%

Gold Puma (5) J: Violet Soulsby

solid track record, proven at distance

21%

#4 9

Lolita (9) J: Siabh Rigley

track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable

30%

Tara Koda (3) J: Mikayla Weir

track specialist, proven at distance

27%

Turn Left (10) J:

looking for others

15%

Dancing Tilda (4) J: Matthew Palmer

place chance

22%

13Risk For Reward (1)SCR

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

R4: Tab 1 Sun Topaze (Barrier 1)
Model: $5.98
1 units

R8: Tab 1 Prince Of Prophets (Barrier 7)
Model: $7.43
1 units

Total Stake: 2.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
Strong Bet: Good edge identified
Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

5%: Max confidence standout
3–4%: High confidence
2%: Good confidence
1%: Moderate / each-way value

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