Fannie Bay
2026-07-18
Good
Rail: True
Updated: 18:26 AEST
9
Races Analysed
2
Bets Found
I Loverain
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Yesterday's Performance
23.5%
Strike Rate
96.7%
ROI
4/17
Winners
+$14.01
Net Profit
Based on 17 races | Staked: $14.50
Track Insights — Fannie Bay
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- J R Todd: 11W from 36 (30.6% win, 58.3% place)
- Hannah Le Blanc: 7W from 26 (26.9% win, 65.4% place)
- R Vigar: 6W from 25 (24.0% win, 60.0% place)
- Aaron Sweeney: 5W from 24 (20.8% win, 58.3% place)
- A Nicholls: 4W from 6 (66.7% win, 100.0% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1600m • Restricted 66;
PASS
Restricted 66; • Prize: $27500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villa Seventynine Aaron Sweeney |
2 | 30% | $$5.73 | BEST |
| 2 | The Albion Jason Lyon |
1 | 28% | $$6.23 | DANGER |
| 3 | Iknowhatyouredoing Raymond Vigar |
5 | 27% | $$6.74 | |
| 4 | The Accelator Stan Tsaikos |
4 | 25% | $$7.36 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
23%
Crazy Brave (3) J: Deborah Barton
track specialist, in good form, top jockey
2
24%
Vieri (7) J: Richard Bensley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#1
3
30%
Villa Seventynine (2) J: Aaron Sweeney
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
25%
Fury (6) J: Jarrod Todd
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
5
27%
Iknowhatyouredoing (5) J: Raymond Vigar
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
#2
6
28%
The Albion (1) J: Jason Lyon
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
7
25%
The Accelator (4) J: Stan Tsaikos
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
R2 • 1300m • Restricted 62;
PASS
Restricted 62; • Prize: $27500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sass Jason Lyon |
6 | 31% | $$8.61 | BEST |
| 2 | Rhesus Wayne Davis |
3 | 31% | $$8.61 | DANGER |
| 3 | Stomp'em Jade Doyle |
7 | 26% | $$8.83 | |
| 4 | Galaxy General Jessica Booth |
10 | 30% | $$8.92 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
19%
Pirate (9) J: Richard Bensley
proven at distance
#4
2
30%
Galaxy General (10) J: Jessica Booth
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
#2
3
31%
Rhesus (3) J: Wayne Davis
solid track record, proven at distance
4
23%
Rampazetto (5) J: Billy Cray
place chance
5
25%
Able Seaman (4) J: Hannah Le Blanc
place chance
#3
6
26%
Stomp'em (7) J: Jade Doyle
proven at distance
7
20%
Data Scramble (11) J: Paul Denton
looking for others
8
26%
Frankfurt (1) J: Raymond Vigar
solid track record
9
19%
Bender Mcgee (8) J: Jade Hampson
looking for others
#1
10
31%
Sass (6) J: Jason Lyon
solid track record, proven at distance
11
21%
Mummsie (2) J: Lek Maloney
proven at level
R3 • 1300m • Restricted 62;
Low Value Bet
Restricted 62; • Prize: $27500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I Loverain Paul Shiers |
1 | 36% | $$5.87 | BEST |
| 2 | Itwasonlyakiss Vanessa Arnott |
6 | 32% | $$7.48 | DANGER |
| 3 | Ariarne Billy Cray |
7 | 26% | $$8.77 | |
| 4 | Dolce D'amour Lek Maloney |
5 | 23% | $$9.74 |
WINTab 2 I Loverain1 units
Full Field Analysis
1
25%
Romantic Love (10) J: Stan Tsaikos
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
#1
2
36%
I Loverain (1) J: Paul Shiers
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
3
32%
Itwasonlyakiss (6) J: Vanessa Arnott
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
20%
Biden Time (8) J: Jarrod Todd
top jockey, quality stable
5
25%
Pub Crawl (3) J: Ianish Luximon
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
20%
Your Not The Boss (9) J: Jason Lyon
proven at distance, top jockey
7
22%
Kalimna Views (2) J: Jessica Booth
top jockey
#4
8
23%
Dolce D'amour (5) J: Lek Maloney
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
9
26%
Ariarne (7) J: Billy Cray
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10
19%
Hello Mary (4) J: Aaron Sweeney
top jockey, quality stable
R4 • 1200m • Benchmark 76;
PASS
Benchmark 76; • Prize: $38500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bon's Pride Vanessa Arnott |
3 | 35% | $$3.56 | BEST |
| 2 | Montjuic Magic Jason Lyon |
2 | 28% | $$5.13 | DANGER |
| 3 | Auxiliary Lek Maloney |
4 | 27% | $$5.64 | |
| 4 | Bahama Bay Aaron Sweeney |
6 | 23% | $$6.05 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#4
1
23%
Bahama Bay (6) J: Aaron Sweeney
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#1
2
35%
Bon's Pride (3) J: Vanessa Arnott
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
3
27%
Auxiliary (4) J: Lek Maloney
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
4
16%
Magarten (1) J: Stan Tsaikos
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
5
19%
Down The Wicket (5) J: Raymond Vigar
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#2
6
28%
Montjuic Magic (2) J: Jason Lyon
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
R5 • 1200m • Open;
Low Value Bet
Open; • Prize: $40000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Balastier Jason Lyon |
3 | 32% | $$8.08 | BEST |
| 2 | Boldinho Jarrod Todd |
6 | 32% | $$8.24 | DANGER |
| 3 | Cinque Torri Paul Shiers |
1 | 25% | $$9.86 | |
| 4 | Rewards And More Stan Tsaikos |
4 | 25% | $$9.93 |
WINTab 1 Balastier0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
32%
Balastier (3) J: Jason Lyon
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, proven at level
#2
2
32%
Boldinho (6) J: Jarrod Todd
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#3
3
25%
Cinque Torri (1) J: Paul Shiers
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
4
25%
Convincebility (5) J: Wayne Davis
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
20%
Cotehele (8) J: Paul Denton
class edge, inconsistent
6
23%
Early Crow (9) J: Jade Hampson
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
7
19%
Genetic Freak (7) J: Raymond Vigar
proven at distance, quality stable
8
24%
Great Buy (11) J: Dakota-Lee Gillett
track specialist, proven at distance, class edge, top jockey
9
25%
Hamlet Von Snitzel (10) J: Deborah Barton
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
10
25%
Rewards And More (4) J: Stan Tsaikos
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
11
27%
Wallenda (2) J: Richard Bensley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
R6 • 1100m • Restricted 58;
Low Value Bet
Restricted 58; • Prize: $27500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamic Theory Hannah Le Blanc |
1 | 34% | $$5.51 | BEST |
| 2 | Dummy Spit Richard Bensley |
5 | 29% | $$6.95 | DANGER |
| 3 | In No Doubt Jarrod Todd |
6 | 27% | $$7.43 | |
| 4 | Ocean's Jen Aaron Sweeney |
2 | 26% | $$7.43 |
WINTab 1 Dynamic Theory0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
34%
Dynamic Theory (1) J: Hannah Le Blanc
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
2
21%
If I Was You (3) J: Jason Lyon
proven at distance, top jockey
#3
3
27%
In No Doubt (6) J: Jarrod Todd
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
4
27%
Bryce (8) J: Wayne Davis
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
5
21%
Cripps Tonite (4) J: Jessica Booth
proven at distance, top jockey, inconsistent
#2
6
29%
Dummy Spit (5) J: Richard Bensley
track specialist, suited to trip, quality stable
#4
7
26%
Ocean's Jen (2) J: Aaron Sweeney
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
9
14%
Copycat (7) J: Jade Hampson
in good form, top jockey
R7 • 1100m • Restricted 70;
Low Value Bet
Restricted 70; • Prize: $27500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runaway Tycoon Jarrod Todd |
4 | 33% | $$6.41 | BEST |
| 2 | Bruno Bruno Raymond Vigar |
6 | 30% | $$7.31 | DANGER |
| 3 | Real Valentia Jade Doyle |
1 | 29% | $$7.85 | |
| 4 | Dad Bod Lek Maloney |
5 | 28% | $$8.02 |
WINTab 2 Runaway Tycoon0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
22%
Rivkin (7) J: Paul Shiers
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
#1
2
33%
Runaway Tycoon (4) J: Jarrod Todd
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, proven at level
3
25%
Bon's Your Back (8) J: Hannah Le Blanc
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
4
30%
Bruno Bruno (6) J: Raymond Vigar
track specialist, suited to trip, flying form, quality stable
#3
5
29%
Real Valentia (1) J: Jade Doyle
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
24%
Juice Box (9) J: Richard Bensley
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
#4
7
28%
Dad Bod (5) J: Lek Maloney
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
8
17%
Cavendish (3) J: Jade Hampson
in good form, top jockey
9
21%
Frawley (2) J: Wayne Davis
track specialist, suited to trip, top jockey
R8 • 2050m • Open;
Low Value Bet
Open; • Prize: $55000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ichiban Jarrod Todd |
1 | 35% | $$6.58 | BEST |
| 2 | Vanguard Legend Jason Lyon |
4 | 32% | $$7.48 | DANGER |
| 3 | Maxxi Bon Richard Bensley |
2 | 28% | $$7.80 | |
| 4 | King Akeed Hannah Le Blanc |
3 | 27% | $$9.27 |
EACH WAYTab 2 Ichiban (0.5 unit win + 0.5 unit place)1 units
Full Field Analysis
1
15%
Alpine Flyer (9) J: Ianish Luximon
top jockey, quality stable
#1
2
35%
Ichiban (1) J: Jarrod Todd
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level
#3
4
28%
Maxxi Bon (2) J: Richard Bensley
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
#2
5
32%
Vanguard Legend (4) J: Jason Lyon
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
23%
Grinzinger Bishop (8) J: Jade Hampson
track specialist, suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
#4
7
27%
King Akeed (3) J: Hannah Le Blanc
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
18%
Tennessee Whiskey (5) J: Stan Tsaikos
track specialist, in good form, top jockey
9
22%
Hotim English (6) J: Aaron Sweeney
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
10
24%
Unquestionably (7) J: Billy Cray
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
11
20%
Faberge Tzar (10) J: Jade Doyle
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
Exotics
Quinella: Ichiban, Vanguard Legend
Exacta: Ichiban / Vanguard Legend, Maxxi Bon
Trifecta: Box: Ichiban, Vanguard Legend, Maxxi Bon, King Akeed
First 4: Box: Ichiban, Vanguard Legend, Maxxi Bon, King Akeed, Unquestionably
R9 • 2050m • Open;
Low Value Bet
Open; • Prize: $150000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maldini Jason Lyon |
4 | 33% | $$8.55 | BEST |
| 2 | Grinzinger Tundra Stan Tsaikos |
11 | 30% | $$9.79 | DANGER |
| 3 | Leveraged Buyout Jade Hampson |
5 | 26% | $$10.06 | |
| 4 | Garrix Raymond Vigar |
7 | 27% | $$10.85 |
EACH WAYTab 8 Maldini (0.25 unit win + 0.25 unit place)0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
24%
Aggressive (9) J: Aaron Sweeney
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
2
22%
Beachbarbeckons (2) J: Paul Shiers
top jockey
3
24%
Crazy Town (3) J: Richard Bensley
quality stable
#4
4
27%
Garrix (7) J: Raymond Vigar
track specialist, flying form
#2
5
30%
Grinzinger Tundra (11) J: Stan Tsaikos
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
18%
Hopeless Romantic (1) J: Billy Cray
flying form, top jockey, quality stable
#3
7
26%
Leveraged Buyout (5) J: Jade Hampson
track specialist, flying form, top jockey
#1
8
33%
Maldini (4) J: Jason Lyon
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
9
26%
Merimbula (6) J: Jarrod Todd
track specialist, top jockey, quality stable
10
24%
Pleasing Smile (12) J: Hannah Le Blanc
track specialist, top jockey
11
26%
Rivers Of Babylon (8) J: Wayne Davis
track specialist, flying form, top jockey
12
16%
Love To Lie (10) J: Ianish Luximon
top jockey, quality stable
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R3:
Tab 2 I Loverain (Barrier 1)
Model: $5.87
1 units
Model: $5.87
1 units
R8:
Tab 2 Ichiban (Barrier 1)
Model: $6.58
1 units
Model: $6.58
1 units
Total Stake: 2.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 18/07/2026, 6:26:31 pm