Derby
2026-07-18
Good
Rail: True
Updated: 10:17 AEST
6
Races Analysed
0
Bets Found
Topaz
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Derby
Track Play: Track characteristics vary based on rail position and recent maintenance. Recent winners show the current pattern - horses that can adapt to prevailing conditions have the advantage.
Jockey Notes: Leading local riders with recent track wins dominate through superior course knowledge. Jockeys riding multiple winners at the venue in the past month carry momentum and understanding of current biases.
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1400m • Class B;
PASS
Class B; • Prize: $14500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Principal Dealer Rosie Mahony |
4 | 27% | $$5.24 | BEST |
| 2 | Angel Like You Tiana Murray |
2 | 27% | $$5.31 | DANGER |
| 3 | Matsoka Jessica Gray |
1 | 26% | $$5.44 | |
| 4 | Wicked One Jason Li |
3 | 26% | $$5.78 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
20%
Moment In The Sun (6) J: Kyra Yuill
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#4
2
26%
Wicked One (3) J: Jason Li
top jockey, quality stable
#2
3
27%
Angel Like You (2) J: Tiana Murray
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
4
26%
Matsoka (1) J: Jessica Gray
top jockey, inconsistent
5
23%
Power To Rule (5) J: Ebony Johnson
quality stable
#1
6
27%
Principal Dealer (4) J: Rosie Mahony
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R2 • 1120m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $13500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hard To Top Peter Farrell |
2 | 30% | $$5.85 | BEST |
| 2 | Viva Marconi Tiana Murray |
5 | 31% | $$6.17 | DANGER |
| 3 | Prove Me Wrong Kayla Holroyd |
1 | 29% | $$6.77 | |
| 4 | Belle Belle Rosie Mahony |
8 | 23% | $$7.69 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
31%
Viva Marconi (5) J: Tiana Murray
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
2
20%
Glyda (6) J: Jason Li
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#1
3
30%
Hard To Top (2) J: Peter Farrell
track specialist, proven at distance
#3
4
29%
Prove Me Wrong (1) J: Kayla Holroyd
quality stable, inconsistent
#4
5
23%
Belle Belle (8) J: Rosie Mahony
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
6
20%
Muzza's Gift (3) J: Casey Hunter
top jockey, quality stable
7
17%
Coupe Deburj (4) J: Jessica Gray
suited to trip, top jockey
8
9%
Belle Rose (7) J: Bailey Webster
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
R3 • 1120m • BenchMark 68+;
PASS
BenchMark 68+; • Prize: $15000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Climb On Top Rosie Mahony |
3 | 32% | $$2.91 | BEST |
| 2 | Bayezid Bailey Webster |
1 | 27% | $$3.86 | DANGER |
| 3 | Lost Gravity Peter Farrell |
4 | 22% | $$4.97 | |
| 4 | Gift Of The Heart Jason Li |
2 | 22% | $$5.09 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
27%
Bayezid (1) J: Bailey Webster
top jockey, quality stable
#1
2
32%
Climb On Top (3) J: Rosie Mahony
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
3
22%
Gift Of The Heart (2) J: Jason Li
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
4
22%
Lost Gravity (4) J: Peter Farrell
proven at distance
5Universal Playboy (1)SCR
R4 • 1120m • Benchmark 48+;
PASS
Benchmark 48+; • Prize: $13500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | City Of Sin Bailey Webster |
5 | 34% | $$5.63 | BEST |
| 2 | Berry Berry Good Tiana Murray |
8 | 32% | $$6.05 | DANGER |
| 3 | Purple Circle Rosie Mahony |
2 | 24% | $$7.02 | |
| 4 | Outlaw Music Casey Hunter |
3 | 27% | $$7.53 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
24%
Mrs Kangaroo (6) J: Kayla Holroyd
proven at distance, in good form
#2
2
32%
Berry Berry Good (8) J: Tiana Murray
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
3
24%
Purple Circle (2) J: Rosie Mahony
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
4
27%
Outlaw Music (3) J: Casey Hunter
top jockey, quality stable
#1
5
34%
City Of Sin (5) J: Bailey Webster
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
6
20%
Magnasonic (7) J: Peter Farrell
form a concern, inconsistent
7
21%
Hey Bull (1) J: Ebony Johnson
quality stable
8
18%
Vernacular (4) J: Jessica Gray
top jockey, inconsistent
R5 • 1400m • BenchMark 56+;
Low Value Bet
BenchMark 56+; • Prize: $13500
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Topaz Jason Li |
8 | 34% | $$6.16 | BEST |
| 2 | Ima Wild Girl Ebony Johnson |
7 | 30% | $$8.33 | DANGER |
| 3 | Fellafromdownunder Jessica Gray |
9 | 29% | $$8.72 | |
| 4 | Close Talker Kyra Yuill |
5 | 26% | $$9.49 |
EACH WAYTab 7 Topaz (0.25 unit win + 0.25 unit place)0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
26%
Bin Shalaa (1) J: Simone Altieri
solid track record
#4
2
26%
Close Talker (5) J: Kyra Yuill
place chance
3
21%
Play Dice (3) J: Kayla Holroyd
place chance
#3
4
29%
Fellafromdownunder (9) J: Jessica Gray
proven at distance
#2
5
30%
Ima Wild Girl (7) J: Ebony Johnson
solid track record, proven at distance, proven at level
6
19%
Shoulder Patch (10) J: Rosie Mahony
proven at distance
#1
7
34%
Topaz (8) J: Jason Li
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
8
18%
Hobelar (2) J: Tiana Murray
form a concern, inconsistent
9
21%
Karsavina (4) J: Casey Hunter
proven at distance, form a concern
10
20%
Spirit Of Luna (6) J: Peter Farrell
inconsistent
11Schuhbeck (9)SCR
R6 • 1800m • BenchMark 68+;
Low Value Bet
BenchMark 68+; • Prize: $32000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lutz Casey Hunter |
9 | 34% | $$6.94 | BEST |
| 2 | Do It Right Kyra Yuill |
2 | 33% | $$7.21 | DANGER |
| 3 | Fortune's Luck Bailey Webster |
3 | 28% | $$8.75 | |
| 4 | Striking Fella Rosie Mahony |
1 | 23% | $$10.18 |
EACH WAYTab 4 Lutz (0.25 unit win + 0.25 unit place)0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1Hafey (7)SCR
#4
2
23%
Striking Fella (1) J: Rosie Mahony
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
3
22%
Capricorn Man (7) J: Tiana Murray
class edge, top jockey, quality stable
#1
4
34%
Lutz (9) J: Casey Hunter
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
5
20%
Magic Whistle (6) J: Simone Altieri
top jockey, inconsistent
6
23%
Alotta Dane (8) J: Jason Li
top jockey, quality stable
7
25%
Civvy Street (5) J: Bonnie Casey
suited to trip, form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
8
28%
Fortune's Luck (3) J: Bailey Webster
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
9Rubick Lass (7)SCR
10
21%
Star Testymony (4) J: Peter Farrell
proven at distance
11
24%
Kings Sicario (10) J: Jessica Gray
suited to trip, top jockey
#2
12
33%
Do It Right (2) J: Kyra Yuill
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
13Street Maschino (4)SCR
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
No confident bets for this meeting
Total Stake: 0.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Leading Edge Tips — Professional Racing Analysis
Generated 18/07/2026, 10:17:34 am