Carnarvon
WA • 2026-07-19
Good
Rail: True
Updated: 07:25 AEST
6
Races Analysed
0
Bets Found
N/A
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Carnarvon
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- Kate Pateman: 7W from 27 (25.9% win, 51.9% place)
- Natika Riordan: 4W from 15 (26.7% win, 53.3% place)
- Natasha Faithfull: 3W from 6 (50.0% win, 50.0% place)
- Madi Derrick: 2W from 12 (16.7% win, 25.0% place)
- Bailey Webster: 2W from 14 (14.3% win, 21.4% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1000m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $17000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Westriver Dynique |
14 | 35% | $$9.18 | BEST |
| 2 | From The Rooftop Rocky Cheung |
4 | 35% | $$9.25 | DANGER |
| 3 | Ginger Fizz Jefferson Tsang |
7 | 30% | $$11.31 | |
| 4 | Costa Star Giaan O'Donnell |
13 | 29% | $$11.82 |
- Well beaten last start (12th, 24.7L) — needs significant improvement.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
26%
Magic Carats (12) J: Natasha Faithfull
top jockey, quality stable
#3
2
30%
Ginger Fizz (7) J: Jefferson Tsang
top jockey, quality stable
3
27%
The Sessione (2) J: Natika Riordan
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
4
35%
From The Rooftop (4) J: Rocky Cheung
proven at distance, top jockey
5
13%
Placid Rom (10) J:
flying form, quality stable, inconsistent
6
20%
Dixie Princess (5) J: Jordan Turner
looking for others
#4
7
29%
Costa Star (13) J: Giaan O'Donnell
solid track record, in good form, top jockey
8
23%
Tango Rhythm (8) J: Madi Derrick
in good form, top jockey, quality stable
9
23%
Black Cilla (9) J: Sharni Webster
top jockey, quality stable
10
24%
Rhaenya (6) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
11
11%
Dame D'argent (11) J: Kate Pateman
top jockey, quality stable
12
15%
Tiny Champion (3) J: Tara Atherden
form a concern, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
13
23%
Prized Benefit (1) J:
quality stable, inconsistent
#1
14
35%
Westriver Dynique (14) J:
suited to trip, quality stable
R2 • 1400m • Class 1;12:00
PASS
Class 1; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hot Nova Madi Derrick |
4 | 31% | $$9.22 | BEST |
| 2 | Swishgobango Rocky Cheung |
10 | 31% | $$9.25 | DANGER |
| 3 | Le Troy Natika Riordan |
9 | 31% | $$9.43 | |
| 4 | Dashing Diva Jefferson Tsang |
11 | 29% | $$10.48 |
- Finished 6th last start, 9.3L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
23%
Daiyamondo (7) J: Giaan O'Donnell
suited to trip, top jockey
#3
2
31%
Le Troy (9) J: Natika Riordan
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
#2
3
31%
Swishgobango (10) J: Rocky Cheung
track specialist, in good form, top jockey
#4
4
29%
Dashing Diva (11) J: Jefferson Tsang
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
5
23%
Violent (12) J:
track specialist, flying form, quality stable
6
21%
Space Ace (6) J: Kate Pateman
top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
7
25%
Blitz (8) J: Jordan Turner
place chance
8
20%
Fuzzybox (5) J:
form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
9
26%
Hoochie Gucci (3) J: Sharni Webster
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#1
10
31%
Hot Nova (4) J: Madi Derrick
proven at distance, top jockey
11
26%
Sweet Eyes (1) J: Natasha Faithfull
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
12
18%
Willyabrup (2) J: Tara Atherden
top jockey, quality stable
R3 • 1600m • BenchMark 56+;12:00
PASS
BenchMark 56+; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes I Believe Natika Riordan |
1 | 27% | $$7.26 | BEST |
| 2 | Dream Illusion Natasha Faithfull |
5 | 27% | $$7.31 | DANGER |
| 3 | Candlelight Sherif Madi Derrick |
2 | 29% | $$7.58 | |
| 4 | Tiff's Lad Giaan O'Donnell |
1 | 28% | $$7.66 |
- Placed 2nd of 12 last start (0.2L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#4
1
28%
Tiff's Lad (1) J: Giaan O'Donnell
suited to trip, top jockey, quality stable
#2
2
27%
Dream Illusion (5) J: Natasha Faithfull
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
3
29%
Candlelight Sherif (2) J: Madi Derrick
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
20%
Deal Obtained (8) J: Kate Pateman
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
5
29%
Urban Warrior (4) J: Sharni Webster
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#1
6
27%
Yes I Believe (1) J: Natika Riordan
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
7
21%
Awesome Lily (3) J: Rocky Cheung
track specialist, proven at distance, form a concern, top jockey
8
16%
Odin Omen (6) J: Jefferson Tsang
class edge, top jockey, quality stable, inconsistent
9
20%
Run Teddy Run (7) J: Jordan Turner
quality stable
R4 • 1000m • BenchMark 56+;12:00
PASS
BenchMark 56+; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mystery Minute Natasha Faithfull |
7 | 32% | $$7.37 | BEST |
| 2 | Dragonflies Rocky Cheung |
2 | 31% | $$7.92 | DANGER |
| 3 | Swexan Giaan O'Donnell |
10 | 30% | $$8.08 | |
| 4 | Mars Mission Kate Pateman |
5 | 29% | $$8.53 |
- Missed last but has won 2 of past 5 (incl. Carnarvon).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
32%
Mystery Minute (7) J: Natasha Faithfull
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
2
27%
Cheeky Charlotte (1) J: Jordan Turner
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
#4
3
29%
Mars Mission (5) J: Kate Pateman
solid track record, suited to trip, class edge, top jockey
4
18%
Keytrade (9) J: Tara Atherden
top jockey, inconsistent
#3
5
30%
Swexan (10) J: Giaan O'Donnell
track specialist, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
6
24%
Addictive Dream (3) J: Madi Derrick
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
7
31%
Dragonflies (2) J: Rocky Cheung
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
8
20%
Intoxicating (4) J: Sharni Webster
top jockey, quality stable
9
26%
Kimberley Currency (6) J: Jefferson Tsang
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10
20%
She Is All Magic (8) J: Natika Riordan
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
R5 • 1200m • BenchMark 64+;12:00
PASS
BenchMark 64+; • Prize: $30000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aardvark Kate Pateman |
2 | 36% | $$5.74 | BEST |
| 2 | Devils I Natasha Faithfull |
4 | 30% | N/A | DANGER |
| 3 | Gold Spy Madi Derrick |
3 | 30% | $$3.75 | |
| 4 | Simply Rosso Natika Riordan |
10 | 29% | $$16.03 |
- Won last start by 2.1L at Carnarvon over 1000m.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
19%
Corn Cob (5) J: Tara Atherden
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#1
2
36%
Aardvark (2) J: Kate Pateman
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
3
28%
Lacevinsky (8) J: Giaan O'Donnell
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
4
22%
Kote (7) J: Rocky Cheung
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey, quality stable
5
22%
Our Kiwi Princess (6) J: Sharni Webster
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#2
6
30%
Devils I (4) J: Natasha Faithfull
track specialist, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#4
7
29%
Simply Rosso (10) J: Natika Riordan
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
8
22%
Weapons Hot (1) J: Jefferson Tsang
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#3
9
30%
Gold Spy (3) J: Madi Derrick
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
10
15%
Champeze (9) J: Jordan Turner
proven at distance, quality stable
R6 • 1400m • BenchMark 56+;12:00
PASS
BenchMark 56+; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blowin' Smoke Sharni Webster |
5 | 31% | $$10.03 | BEST |
| 2 | Western Impact Natasha Faithfull |
2 | 31% | $$10.27 | DANGER |
| 3 | Set The Scene Rocky Cheung |
8 | 29% | $$11.22 | |
| 4 | Ironclad Boy Giaan O'Donnell |
3 | 28% | $$11.55 |
- Finished 5th last start, 5.0L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
29%
Set The Scene (8) J: Rocky Cheung
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey
2
28%
Limahuli (9) J: Kate Pateman
solid track record, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
3
24%
On Just Terms (4) J: Madi Derrick
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
4
22%
Shabalala (12) J:
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
5
23%
Hard Questions (13) J: Natika Riordan
proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#4
6
28%
Ironclad Boy (3) J: Giaan O'Donnell
track specialist, proven at distance, top jockey, quality stable
#1
7
31%
Blowin' Smoke (5) J: Sharni Webster
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey, quality stable
8
26%
Soaring Solo (11) J: Jefferson Tsang
track specialist, proven at distance, proven at level, top jockey
9
27%
Hot Puddin (7) J:
proven at distance, quality stable
#2
10
31%
Western Impact (2) J: Natasha Faithfull
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
11
16%
Lordgivemestrength (10) J: Tara Atherden
top jockey, quality stable
12
28%
Passion Prince (1) J: Jordan Turner
proven at distance, form a concern, quality stable, inconsistent
13
20%
War Tactics (6) J:
track specialist, suited to trip, quality stable
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
No confident bets for this meeting
Total Stake: 0.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 18/07/2026, 7:25:54 am