Birdsville
QLD • 2026-09-04
Good
Rail: True Entire Course.
Updated: 07:15 AEST
6
Races Analysed
1
Bets Found
Starlite Rebel
Best Bet
None
Best Value
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Birdsville
Track Play: Track characteristics vary based on rail position and recent maintenance. Recent winners show the current pattern - horses that can adapt to prevailing conditions have the advantage.
Jockey Notes: Leading local riders with recent track wins dominate through superior course knowledge. Jockeys riding multiple winners at the venue in the past month carry momentum and understanding of current biases.
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1200m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $22000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barrythebarbaric Leslie Tilley |
7 | 30% | N/A | BEST |
| 2 | Secret Suspicion Jake Pracey-Holmes |
4 | 26% | $$1.75 | DANGER |
| 3 | Outages Paul Hamblin |
5 | 24% | $$36.53 | |
| 4 | Crudo Samantha Pointon |
3 | 22% | $$6.98 |
- Placed 3rd of 6 last start (8.7L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#4
1
22%
Crudo (3) J: Samantha Pointon
place chance
2
25%
Exceptional Rupert (2) J: Angel Brennan
place chance
3
20%
Kal It Magic (1) J: Robert Faehr
proven at distance, inconsistent
#3
4
24%
Outages (5) J: Paul Hamblin
suited to trip, quality stable
5
22%
Fillydelphia Miss (6) J: Julie Busuttin
proven at distance, quality stable, inconsistent
#2
6
26%
Secret Suspicion (4) J: Jake Pracey-Holmes
quality stable
#1
7
30%
Barrythebarbaric (7) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance
R2 • 1600m • Benchmark 55;12:00
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 55; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starlite Rebel John Keating |
1 | 37% | $$43.38 | BEST |
| 2 | Smashing Rosie Caine Stuart |
2 | 30% | $$2.61 | DANGER |
| 3 | Mayor Of Kingston Julie Busuttin |
4 | 22% | $$1.69 | |
| 4 | Hi Frank Leslie Tilley |
3 | 19% | $$6.94 |
- Finished 6th last start, 9.3L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Excuses last start — hampered in running at Fannie Bay. Rating adjusted upward.
LONE SPEEDHIDDEN RUN
WINTab 2 Starlite Rebel1 units
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
30%
Smashing Rosie (2) J: Caine Stuart
in good form
#1
2
37%
Starlite Rebel (1) J: John Keating
track specialist, proven at distance, quality stable
3
21%
Able Seaman (5) J: Robert Faehr
place chance
#3
4
22%
Mayor Of Kingston (4) J: Julie Busuttin
in good form, quality stable
#4
5
19%
Hi Frank (3) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance, in good form
R3 • 1400m • Class 3;12:00
PASS
Class 3; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Here I Come Paul Hamblin |
1 | 31% | $$5.55 | BEST |
| 2 | Miss Moneypenny Leslie Tilley |
6 | 29% | $$3.26 | DANGER |
| 3 | Forever A Diamond John Keating |
2 | 28% | $$9.17 | |
| 4 | Kijivu Jake Pracey-Holmes |
7 | 24% | $$6.34 |
- Finished 6th last start, 6.8L off winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1400m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Excuses last start — wide throughout at Roma. Rating adjusted upward.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
25%
Quello Dorato (3) J: Jemma Gutte
proven at distance, in good form
#1
2
31%
Here I Come (1) J: Paul Hamblin
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#4
3
24%
Kijivu (7) J: Jake Pracey-Holmes
proven at distance, in good form
4
19%
Private Tender (5) J: Robert Faehr
proven at distance
#2
5
29%
Miss Moneypenny (6) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
6
19%
Engeline (4) J: Julie Busuttin
suited to trip, quality stable, inconsistent
#3
7
28%
Forever A Diamond (2) J: John Keating
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
R4 • 1200m • Class 1;12:00
Low Value Bet
Class 1; • Prize: $25000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boulevard Boy Paul Hamblin |
4 | 33% | $$4.26 | BEST |
| 2 | Anders Kiss Julie Busuttin |
1 | 31% | $$7.19 | DANGER |
| 3 | Private Showtime Jemma Gutte |
3 | 24% | $$4.54 | |
| 4 | Kindly Leslie Tilley |
5 | 23% | $$17.65 |
- Placed 3rd of 7 last start (2.4L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Excuses last start — blocked for run at Charleville. Rating adjusted upward.
HIDDEN RUN
WINTab 2 Boulevard Boy0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
1
23%
Farnesina (6) J: Samantha Pointon
proven at distance
#1
2
33%
Boulevard Boy (4) J: Paul Hamblin
in good form, quality stable
#3
3
24%
Private Showtime (3) J: Jemma Gutte
suited to trip, in good form
4
22%
Mlinzi (2) J: Robert Faehr
place chance
#2
5
31%
Anders Kiss (1) J: Julie Busuttin
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#4
6
23%
Kindly (5) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance
R5 • 1200m • Class 5;12:00
Low Value Bet
Class 5; • Prize: $20000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stecara Paul Hamblin |
6 | 32% | $$1.67 | BEST |
| 2 | Great Cosmic Kody Nestor |
5 | 31% | $$29.63 | DANGER |
| 3 | Discreet Miss Leslie Tilley |
3 | 21% | $$6.65 | |
| 4 | Deferential Jake Pracey-Holmes |
4 | 24% | $$13.85 |
- Missed last but has won 1 of past 5 (incl. Emerald).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Excuses last start — wide throughout at Injune. Rating adjusted upward.
HIDDEN RUN
WINTab 4 Stecara0.5 units
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
31%
Great Cosmic (5) J: Kody Nestor
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
#4
2
24%
Deferential (4) J: Jake Pracey-Holmes
proven at distance, in good form
3
22%
Ioane (2) J: John Keating
quality stable
#1
4
32%
Stecara (6) J: Paul Hamblin
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
5
22%
Frawley (1) J: Robert Faehr
proven at distance
#3
6
21%
Discreet Miss (3) J: Leslie Tilley
proven at distance
R6 • 1000m • Open;12:00
PASS
Open; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peshwa Paul Hamblin |
7 | 32% | N/A | BEST |
| 2 | Hello World John Keating |
3 | 26% | $$1.52 | DANGER |
| 3 | Revolt Kody Nestor |
6 | 29% | $$7.69 | |
| 4 | Mon Pierre Leslie Tilley |
8 | 27% | $$8.36 |
- Won last start by 0.2L at Roma over 1200m.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1000m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
32%
Peshwa (7) J: Paul Hamblin
proven at distance, flying form, quality stable
#3
2
29%
Revolt (6) J: Kody Nestor
track specialist, proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
3
20%
Kalashnikov (5) J: Samantha Pointon
proven at distance, in good form, class edge
4
27%
Cochrane (1) J: Julie Busuttin
proven at distance, in good form, quality stable
#2
5
26%
Hello World (3) J: John Keating
proven at distance, in good form, proven at level, quality stable
#4
6
27%
Mon Pierre (8) J: Leslie Tilley
track specialist, proven at distance
7
22%
Revalene (2) J: Caine Stuart
proven at distance
8
24%
Lucky Fortuna (4) J: Jade Doyle
in good form, quality stable
9
17%
Dusan (7) J:
proven at distance, in good form
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R2:
Tab 2 Starlite Rebel (Barrier 1) UNDERLAY -80%
Model: $43.38
1 units
Model: $43.38
1 units
Total Stake: 1.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Generated 03/09/2026, 7:15:02 am