Pakenham
2026-02-26
Good
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Updated: 17:51 AEST
8
Races Analysed
3
Bets Found
Ruby Avenue
Best Bet
None
Best Value
91%
Data Quality
Yesterday's Performance
0.0%
Strike Rate
-45.3%
ROI
0/2
Winners
$-1.36
Net Profit
Based on 2 races | Staked: $3.00
Track Insights — Pakenham
Recent Patterns:
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- Teodore Nugent: 2W from 3 (66.7% win, 66.7% place)
- Lachlan Neindorf: 2W from 3 (66.7% win, 100.0% place)
- L Currie: 1W from 5 (20.0% win, 80.0% place)
- Jordan Childs: 0W from 4 (0.0% win, 25.0% place)
- Jye McNeil: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 0.0% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 2500m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenician Teodore Nugent |
2 | 69% | $$1.44 | BEST |
| 2 | Ashina Jordan Childs |
3 | 18% | $$8.62 | DANGER |
| 3 | Soul Mistress Zac Spain |
1 | 15% | $$9.25 | |
| 4 | Rapido River Daniel Stackhouse |
5 | 11% | $$18.17 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
69%
Phoenician (2) J: Teodore Nugent
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
2St Dominic (1)SCR
#4
3
11%
Rapido River (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse
looking for others
4
8%
Showfair (4) J: Jake Noonan
inconsistent
#3
5
15%
Soul Mistress (1) J: Zac Spain
in good form
#2
6
18%
Ashina (3) J: Jordan Childs
in good form
R2 • 1000m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sassidora Craig Newitt |
2 | 90% | $$1.64 | BEST |
| 2 | Chloe First Luke Cartwright |
5 | 24% | $$7.37 | DANGER |
| 3 | Bold Suitor Jake Noonan |
7 | 21% | $$9.45 | |
| 4 | I'm A Dream Girl Samantha Noble |
3 | 9% | $$17.32 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
Big Kapow (6) J: Melea Castle
form a concern, inconsistent
#3
2
21%
Bold Suitor (7) J: Jake Noonan
suited to trip, in good form
3
Little Richo (8) J: Bree Temple
form a concern, inconsistent
4
Baltic (4) J: Luke Currie
form a concern, inconsistent
#2
5
24%
Chloe First (5) J: Luke Cartwright
flying form, inconsistent
6
Epic Jewel (1) J: Jye McNeil
form a concern, inconsistent
#4
7
9%
I'm A Dream Girl (3) J: Samantha Noble
in good form, inconsistent
#1
8
90%
Sassidora (2) J: Craig Newitt
proven at distance, in good form
R3 • 1400m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stuntman Harry Coffey |
1 | 36% | $$5.73 | BEST |
| 2 | Written Story Daniel Stackhouse |
8 | 36% | $$7.12 | DANGER |
| 3 | Standard Deviation Jye McNeil |
6 | 27% | $$7.61 | |
| 4 | Olive Road Jackie Beriman |
9 | 27% | $$7.90 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
27%
Standard Deviation (6) J: Jye McNeil
flying form
2
13%
Velvet City (4) J: Ethan Brown
inconsistent
3
11%
Cadillac Sam (7) J: Luke Currie
looking for others
4
26%
Federalist (10) J: Teodore Nugent
class edge
#1
5
36%
Stuntman (1) J: Harry Coffey
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
6
20%
The Dux Nuts (5) J: John Allen
inconsistent
7
24%
Daisy Duck (2) J: Jordan Childs
proven at distance
8Hurry Up Poppy (4)SCR
#4
9
27%
Olive Road (9) J: Jackie Beriman
proven at distance, flying form, inconsistent
#2
10
36%
Written Story (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse
proven at distance
11
4%
Celestial Award (3) J: Michael Dee
inconsistent
12Irreverent (13)SCR
13
11%
Cheeky Sneaky (11) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
inconsistent
14Colour Circle (9)SCR
15Packers Journey (2)SCR
16Tartan Queen (14)SCR
R4 • 1100m • Maiden;
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $45000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Midnight Man Jordan Childs |
8 | 64% | $$3.51 | BEST |
| 2 | Buvelot Jye McNeil |
2 | 41% | $$6.19 | DANGER |
| 3 | Alpine Way Ben Allen |
4 | 28% | $$9.66 | |
| 4 | Unholstered Jade Da Rose |
5 | 27% | $$11.27 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
28%
Alpine Way (4) J: Ben Allen
inconsistent
2
24%
Brutal Force (6) J: Ben Kennedy
inconsistent
#2
3
41%
Buvelot (2) J: Jye McNeil
has claims
4
25%
Listening Is Doing (9) J: Bree Temple
inconsistent
#1
5
64%
Midnight Man (8) J: Jordan Childs
in good form
#4
6
27%
Unholstered (5) J: Jade Da Rose
place chance
7
17%
Handsome Missile (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf
inconsistent
8
New Prospect (7) J: Luke Currie
form a concern, inconsistent
9
8%
Transporter (3) J: Beau Mertens
inconsistent
10
Bee Admired (11) J: Ethan Brown
form a concern, inconsistent
11
Flying Riches (1) J: Jason Maskiell
form a concern, inconsistent
12
14%
Sumaluv (12) J: John Allen
form a concern, inconsistent
R5 • 1000m • Benchmark 62;
Low Value Bet
Benchmark 62; • Prize: $40000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ruby Avenue Daniel Stackhouse |
8 | 35% | $$5.45 | BEST |
| 2 | Tiz Worthy Jamie Melham |
1 | 30% | $$6.95 | DANGER |
| 3 | Steamy Mist Patrick Moloney |
7 | 27% | $$7.95 | |
| 4 | Yamashita's Gold Ethan Brown |
3 | 28% | $$8.01 |
WIN#3 Ruby Avenue1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
28%
Commands Success (9) J: Holly Durnan
proven at distance, in good form
2Bangholme (5)SCR
#1
3
35%
Ruby Avenue (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse
solid track record, proven at distance
4
26%
Symphony Of Colour (5) J: John Allen
proven at distance, class edge
#4
5
28%
Yamashita's Gold (3) J: Ethan Brown
proven at distance, proven at level
6
13%
Lake Gillear (2) J: Nadia Daniels
proven at distance, in good form
#2
7
30%
Tiz Worthy (1) J: Jamie Melham
proven at distance, proven at level
8
23%
Party Benefits (4) J: Zac Spain
proven at distance
#3
9
27%
Steamy Mist (7) J: Patrick Moloney
solid track record, proven at distance
10
12%
Paradise Island (6) J: Samantha Noble
suited to trip, inconsistent
R6 • 1200m • Restricted 62;
Med Value Bet
Restricted 62; • Prize: $40000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemian Angel Zac Spain |
9 | 41% | $$4.90 | BEST |
| 2 | Electric Elvis Jordan Childs |
2 | 35% | $$5.96 | DANGER |
| 3 | Flash Alice Lachlan Neindorf |
3 | 27% | $$6.17 | |
| 4 | Paparazzo Daniel Stackhouse |
1 | 33% | $$6.56 |
WIN#9 Bohemian Angel1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
35%
Electric Elvis (2) J: Jordan Childs
proven at distance, in good form
#4
2
33%
Paparazzo (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse
proven at distance, in good form
3
17%
Count Of Toulouse (6) J: Jackie Beriman
proven at distance
#3
4
27%
Flash Alice (3) J: Lachlan Neindorf
proven at distance, in good form
5
12%
Pietro Road (7) J: Teodore Nugent
looking for others
6
28%
Cafe Au Lait (5) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance, in good form
7Ferocious Frankie (7)SCR
8
11%
Ocean Bay (4) J: Beau Mertens
proven at distance, in good form
#1
9
41%
Bohemian Angel (9) J: Zac Spain
proven at distance, in good form
10
12%
Shyleah (8) J: Samantha Noble
solid track record, suited to trip
Exotics
Quinella: Bohemian Angel, Electric Elvis
Exacta: Bohemian Angel / Electric Elvis, Flash Alice
Trifecta: Box: Bohemian Angel, Electric Elvis, Flash Alice, Paparazzo
First 4: Box: Bohemian Angel, Electric Elvis, Flash Alice, Paparazzo, Cafe Au Lait
R7 • 1400m • Class 3;
PASS
Class 3; • Prize: $250000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Benchmark Zac Spain |
8 | 41% | $$5.10 | BEST |
| 2 | Ten Warriors Craig Williams |
4 | 37% | $$6.11 | DANGER |
| 3 | Silver Bullet Ben Allen |
6 | 32% | $$6.55 | |
| 4 | Nostro Roccia Daniel Stackhouse |
9 | 24% | $$8.99 |
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
13%
Plunger (1) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
2
17%
Berlemont (7) J: Luke Currie
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, inconsistent
3
18%
Cyber Link (10) J: Beau Mertens
solid track record, in good form, proven at level
4
14%
I Stand By You (5) J: Ben Melham
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
#4
5
24%
Nostro Roccia (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse
proven at distance, in good form
6
9%
Savoyard (3) J: Ethan Brown
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
#3
7
32%
Silver Bullet (6) J: Ben Allen
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form
#1
8
41%
The Benchmark (8) J: Zac Spain
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form
#2
9
37%
Ten Warriors (4) J: Craig Williams
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
10
9%
Sapphire Siren (2) J: Teodore Nugent
solid track record, flying form, inconsistent
11Sparkling Luck (2)SCR
R8 • 2000m • Restricted 62;
Med Value Bet
Restricted 62; • Prize: $40000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cable De Vega Lachlan Neindorf |
6 | 42% | $$5.21 | BEST |
| 2 | Baffleck Jason Maskiell |
3 | 35% | $$7.40 | DANGER |
| 3 | Houdini Ethan Brown |
9 | 26% | $$9.40 | |
| 4 | Ginger Sweet Jye McNeil |
1 | 28% | $$9.93 |
WIN#11 Cable De Vega1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
#3
1
26%
Houdini (9) J: Ethan Brown
solid track record
2
19%
Sixty Grand (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse
flying form, inconsistent
3
20%
Valiant Sun (11) J: Ben Allen
in good form
4Admire Fluke (4)SCR
5Russian Roni (16)SCR
6
25%
Monte Cassino (4) J: Teodore Nugent
solid track record
7Track Patcher (5)SCR
8
18%
Xtrarevz (2) J: Koby Jennings
proven at distance, form a concern, class edge, inconsistent
#2
9
35%
Baffleck (3) J: Jason Maskiell
solid track record, proven at distance
10Filadeel (12)SCR
#1
11
42%
Cable De Vega (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
12
26%
Somethingsostrong (7) J: Jake Noonan
in good form
13
13%
Purler Patch (10) J: Zac Spain
class edge
#4
14
28%
Ginger Sweet (1) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance
15French Graffiti (13)SCR
16
12%
Zeusmas (8) J: Dakotah Keane
looking for others
Exotics
Quinella: Cable De Vega, Baffleck
Exacta: Cable De Vega / Baffleck, Houdini
Trifecta: Box: Cable De Vega, Baffleck, Houdini, Ginger Sweet
First 4: Box: Cable De Vega, Baffleck, Houdini, Ginger Sweet, Somethingsostrong
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R5:
#3 Ruby Avenue (Barrier 8)
Model: $5.45
1% of bank
Model: $5.45
1% of bank
R6:
#9 Bohemian Angel (Barrier 9)
Model: $4.90
1% of bank
Model: $4.90
1% of bank
R8:
#11 Cable De Vega (Barrier 6)
Model: $5.21
1% of bank
Model: $5.21
1% of bank
Total Stake: 3.0%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Leading Edge Tips — Professional Racing Analysis
Generated 26/02/2026, 5:51:35 pm