Hawera

2026-02-27
Good Rail: True
Updated: 13:45 AEST
8
Races Analysed
3
Bets Found
Classy Brahma
Best Bet
None
Best Value
91%
Data Quality

Track Insights — Hawera

Recent Patterns:

Top Jockeys Here:

Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

R1 • 2100m • Maiden;

PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Starpello
Amber Riddell
5 31% $$6.82 BEST
2 She Suits Herself
Craig Grylls
1 26% $$7.19 DANGER
3 Malibu
K R Hercock
10 28% $$9.07
4 Dun Talkin'
Jonathan Riddell
6 21% $$9.13
No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#3 1
Malibu (10) J: K R Hercock
place chance
28%
#1 2
Starpello (5) J: Amber Riddell
place chance
31%
#4 3
Dun Talkin' (6) J: Jonathan Riddell
place chance
21%
4
Waitotara Warrior (2) J: Chris Dell
inconsistent
14%
5
See My Machine (8) J: Ryan Elliot
form a concern, inconsistent
16%
6
Aimee's Jem (4) J: Leah Hemi
solid track record, inconsistent
23%
7
Kaz Caz (9) J: George Rooke
inconsistent
23%
#2 8
She Suits Herself (1) J: Craig Grylls
in good form
26%
9
Not Usual Moana (3) J: Samantha Collett
inconsistent
17%
10
Getitdun (7) J: Kelly Myers
form a concern, inconsistent
14%

R2 • 1200m • Benchmark 65;

Low Value Bet
Benchmark 65; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Classy Brahma
Bruno Queiroz
5 35% $$4.63 BEST
2 Fawnzor
Kelly Myers
7 24% $$5.73 DANGER
3 We Found Love
Samantha Collett
4 27% $$5.97
4 Katamuku
Ryan Elliot
6 18% $$7.39
WIN#1 Classy Brahma1% of bank

Full Field Analysis

#1 1
Classy Brahma (5) J: Bruno Queiroz
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
35%
2
Erbys Darci (2) J: Jim Chung
proven at distance, in good form
21%
#2 3
Fawnzor (7) J: Kelly Myers
proven at distance, flying form
24%
#4 4
Katamuku (6) J: Ryan Elliot
proven at distance, flying form
18%
5
Right Of Appeal (1) J: Courtney Barnes
looking for others
13%
6
Bodacious Kate (3) J: Jack Taplin
proven at distance, class edge
23%
#3 7
We Found Love (4) J: Samantha Collett
proven at distance
27%

R3 • 1200m • Maiden;

PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Ledhaven Cassie
Mereana Hudson
7 86% $$2.45 BEST
2 Force Of Law
George Rooke
1 36% $$6.25 DANGER
3 Thatz Bonnie
Jack Taplin
4 21% $$11.73
4 Chibrah
Courtney Barnes
3 19% $$12.97
No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1Elpedro (9)SCR
#2 2
Force Of Law (1) J: George Rooke
suited to trip, proven at level
36%
#4 3
Chibrah (3) J: Courtney Barnes
in good form, inconsistent
19%
4
Treasure Trove (6) J: Bruno Queiroz
inconsistent
14%
5
Que Syrah Syrah (2) J: Craig Grylls
inconsistent
13%
6
Scotty (8) J: Ryan Elliot
form a concern, inconsistent
13%
#1 7
Ledhaven Cassie (7) J: Mereana Hudson
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
86%
8Ivy Time (12)SCR
#3 9
Thatz Bonnie (4) J: Jack Taplin
inconsistent
21%
10
Andjustlikethat (11) J: Alan Lai
suited to trip, inconsistent
15%
11
Allaru (5) J: Chris Dell
in good form, inconsistent
12%
12
Alpine Ace (9) J: K R Hercock
form a concern, inconsistent
13
Etupirka (10) J: Masahiro Hashizume
form a concern, inconsistent
14Lucy (14)SCR

R4 • 1400m • Maiden;

PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Star Onehundred
Jim Chung
4 42% $$4.03 BEST
2 Scarlett Spell
Samantha Collett
6 44% $$4.20 DANGER
3 Tsunami Sue
Craig Grylls
8 23% $$7.12
4 King Jakkal
Kelly Myers
9 24% $$8.55
No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

#4 1
King Jakkal (9) J: Kelly Myers
inconsistent
24%
2
Acesandspaces (5) J: Jonathan Riddell
inconsistent
13%
3
Porotene Tiger (3) J: Amber Riddell
inconsistent
12%
#1 4
Star Onehundred (4) J: Jim Chung
solid track record, in good form
42%
#2 5
Scarlett Spell (6) J: Samantha Collett
proven at distance, proven at level
44%
6Solid Gold (8)SCR
#3 7
Tsunami Sue (8) J: Craig Grylls
flying form, inconsistent
23%
8
Bellafiore (1) J: Masahiro Hashizume
form a concern, inconsistent
9Fantastic Ideas (13)SCR
10
Major Houlihan (7) J: Chris Dell
inconsistent
15%
11
Out Of Breath (2) J: Kavish Chowdhoory
form a concern, inconsistent
12Ring The Banker (11)SCR
13Rosina Veloce (10)SCR

R5 • 1600m • Maiden;

PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Tulsa Turnaround
Bruno Queiroz
9 37% $$7.57 BEST
2 Hopingfora Beauty
Kelly Myers
10 34% $$7.83 DANGER
3 Integrity
Ryan Elliot
8 37% $$7.87
4 Aspiritta
4 32% $$9.76
No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1
Pistachio (12) J: Samantha Collett
in good form
21%
#2 2
Hopingfora Beauty (10) J: Kelly Myers
proven at distance, flying form, inconsistent
34%
3
La Kwik (1) J: Masahiro Hashizume
inconsistent
25%
4
Madame Kiwi (11) J: Amber Riddell
inconsistent
27%
5
Heavenly Blessed (13) J: Jim Chung
inconsistent
13%
6
Koneko (3) J: Leah Hemi
form a concern, inconsistent
7
So Obsessed (5) J: Mereana Hudson
form a concern, inconsistent
13%
#4 8
Aspiritta (4) J:
proven at distance
32%
#3 9
Integrity (8) J: Ryan Elliot
proven at distance
37%
#1 10
Tulsa Turnaround (9) J: Bruno Queiroz
proven at distance, in good form
37%
11Undertheboardwalk (16)SCR
12
One Bold Floozie (2) J: Craig Grylls
form a concern, inconsistent
13
Voguish (7) J: George Rooke
in good form, inconsistent
20%
14
Lumos Solem (14) J: Liam Kauri
form a concern, inconsistent
15
Local Lass (6) J: K R Hercock
form a concern, inconsistent
15%
16Eazmil (15)SCR
17Emmy Award (6)SCR

R6 • 1400m • Restricted 60;

PASS
Restricted 60; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Mille Grazie
Kelly Myers
3 34% $$6.27 BEST
2 Tears Of Victory
Bruno Queiroz
8 31% $$6.47 DANGER
3 Dudaday
Samantha Collett
9 31% $$7.16
4 Macee Girl
Masahiro Hashizume
5 28% $$7.75
No edge detected — race passed.

Full Field Analysis

1
Coney Island (6) J: Amber Riddell
looking for others
20%
#3 2
Dudaday (9) J: Samantha Collett
suited to trip
31%
3
Rising Wind (10) J: Chris Dell
proven at distance
27%
4
Tranzed (4) J: Ryan Elliot
class edge, inconsistent
14%
#1 5
Mille Grazie (3) J: Kelly Myers
suited to trip
34%
#2 6
Tears Of Victory (8) J: Bruno Queiroz
proven at distance, class edge
31%
#4 7
Macee Girl (5) J: Masahiro Hashizume
proven at distance
28%
8
Quill (2) J: Courtney Barnes
suited to trip, inconsistent
13%
9Still Bangon (10)SCR
10No More Pennies (12)SCR
11
Paddy Gift (7) J: Leah Hemi
proven at distance, form a concern, inconsistent
24%
12Wuruhi (1)SCR

R7 • 1400m • Benchmark 75;

Low Value Bet
Benchmark 75; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Omega Boy
Liam Kauri
4 35% $$7.04 BEST
2 Za Spirit
Kavish Chowdhoory
8 31% $$7.20 DANGER
3 Tycoon Prince
Jack Taplin
9 28% $$10.01
4 He's Lucid
Kelly Myers
1 23% $$10.66
WIN#1 Omega Boy1% of bank

Full Field Analysis

#1 1
Omega Boy (4) J: Liam Kauri
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
35%
#4 2
He's Lucid (1) J: Kelly Myers
proven at distance, class edge
23%
3
Hard Too Think (11) J: Samantha Collett
proven at distance, class edge, inconsistent
25%
4
Truce (10) J: Masahiro Hashizume
suited to trip
21%
5
One Bold Gigolo (2) J: Craig Grylls
proven at distance
21%
6
Saltnesse (7) J: Chris Dell
proven at distance, proven at level
21%
#2 7
Za Spirit (8) J: Kavish Chowdhoory
proven at distance, in good form
31%
8
Ardee Boy (6) J: Courtney Barnes
solid track record, proven at distance
19%
#3 9
Tycoon Prince (9) J: Jack Taplin
proven at distance, class edge
28%
10
Jungle Jane (3) J: Bruno Queiroz
proven at distance, in good form
14%
11
Highly Lethal (5) J: Jim Chung
solid track record, proven at distance
25%

R8 • 1600m • Benchmark 65;

Low Value Bet
Benchmark 65; • Prize: $25000
#HorseBarConfPriceTag
1 Captain Stan
Masahiro Hashizume
3 38% $$5.03 BEST
2 Bubbles Up
Kelly Myers
8 28% $$7.29 DANGER
3 El Jaycee
Jack Taplin
7 27% $$7.31
4 Keeping Time
Amber Riddell
5 25% $$8.83
WIN#2 Captain Stan1% of bank

Full Field Analysis

1
The Big Picture (9) J: Alan Lai
place chance
21%
#1 2
Captain Stan (3) J: Masahiro Hashizume
proven at distance, in good form
38%
#4 3
Keeping Time (5) J: Amber Riddell
proven at distance
25%
4
Surround Sound (2) J: Samantha Collett
proven at distance
21%
#3 5
El Jaycee (7) J: Jack Taplin
proven at distance
27%
6Silver Salute (2)SCR
#2 7
Bubbles Up (8) J: Kelly Myers
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
28%
8
Cheap Sav (4) J: Mereana Hudson
looking for others
14%
9
Glimmer (1) J: Chris Dell
looking for others
10%
10
Knickerless (6) J: Craig Grylls
proven at distance, proven at level
24%
11Good Spot (2)SCR
12Wuruhi (5)SCR

Exotics

Exacta: Captain Stan / Bubbles Up, El Jaycee
Trifecta: Box: Captain Stan, Bubbles Up, El Jaycee, Keeping Time
First 4: Box: Captain Stan, Bubbles Up, El Jaycee, Keeping Time, Knickerless

Betting Summary

Selective staking — bet only when confident

R2: #1 Classy Brahma (Barrier 5)
Model: $4.63
1% of bank
R7: #1 Omega Boy (Barrier 4)
Model: $7.04
1% of bank
R8: #2 Captain Stan (Barrier 3)
Model: $5.03
1% of bank
Total Stake: 3.0%

Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Understanding The System

Race Classifications

  • Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
  • Strong Bet: Good edge identified
  • Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
  • Pass Race: Insufficient edge

Staking Guide

  • 5%: Max confidence standout
  • 3–4%: High confidence
  • 2%: Good confidence
  • 1%: Moderate / each-way value

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