Cranbourne
VIC • 2026-02-27
Good
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Light chance of rain 27°C
Updated: 07:23 AEST
8
Races Analysed
6
Bets Found
Global Eclipse
Best Bet
Time Allowed
Best Value (+200%)
100%
Data Quality
Track Insights — Cranbourne
Weather: Cranbourne, VIC • 16°–27°C • Rain 43% • Wind 19km/h ESE
Recent Patterns:
- Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
- Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage
Top Jockeys Here:
- Ryan Houston: 2W from 5 (40.0% win, 80.0% place)
- M J Dee: 1W from 3 (33.3% win, 100.0% place)
- Luke Cartwright: 1W from 4 (25.0% win, 75.0% place)
- D W Stackhouse: 1W from 5 (20.0% win, 40.0% place)
- D Moor: 0W from 3 (0.0% win, 66.7% place)
Barriers: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.
Pace: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.
R1 • 1200m • Maiden;12:00
PASS
Maiden; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carriedo Michael Dee |
2 | 48% | $$4.52 | BEST |
| 2 | Juvenal Jordan Childs |
3 | 37% | $$5.49 | DANGER |
| 3 | Love Me Tomorrow Lachlan King |
9 | 29% | $$7.83 | |
| 4 | Balance Ben Melham |
7 | 25% | $$8.20 |
- Placed 3rd of 10 last start (0.9L).
- Stepping up markedly in class — needs to find another gear.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
1
19%
On My Own (6) J: Koby Jennings
top jockey
2
15%
Romuald (8) J: Jamie Mott
top jockey
3
7%
Silver Lightning (4) J: Bailey Kinninmont
top jockey, inconsistent
#2
4
37%
Juvenal (3) J: Jordan Childs
in good form
5
12%
See See Magic (11) J: Craig Newitt
flying form, top jockey
6
12%
Salarae (5) J: Ethan Brown
flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
#4
7
25%
Balance (7) J: Ben Melham
in good form, top jockey, inconsistent
#1
8
48%
Carriedo (2) J: Michael Dee
proven at distance, flying form
#3
9
29%
Love Me Tomorrow (9) J: Lachlan King
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey, inconsistent
10
14%
Sheeze Ominous (1) J: Jackson Radley
in good form, inconsistent
11
7%
Sumaluv (10) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
R2 • 2025m • Benchmark 66;12:00
Med Strong Bet
Benchmark 66; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Eclipse Ben Melham |
2 | 57% | $$3.71 | BEST |
| 2 | Time Allowed Jackson Radley |
4 | 27% | $$7.19 | DANGER |
| 3 | Convo Logan Bates |
3 | 31% | $$7.55 | |
| 4 | Olney Beau Mertens |
7 | 28% | $$8.64 |
- Placed 3rd of 6 last start (2.0L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 2025m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
EACH WAY#2 Global Eclipse (1.5% win + 1.5% place)3% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
18%
Red Aces (8) J: Makisha Salter
proven at distance, form a concern, class edge, inconsistent
#1
2
57%
Global Eclipse (2) J: Ben Melham
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
3
14%
Palace Green (5) J: Jamie Mott
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
4
27%
Time Allowed (4) J: Jackson Radley
solid track record, flying form
5
8%
Bergasun (10) J: Linda Meech
proven at distance, top jockey
6
14%
Customer Service (1) J: Michael Dee
in good form
#4
7
28%
Olney (7) J: Beau Mertens
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
8
20%
Triple Time (9) J: Jordan Childs
in good form
#3
9
31%
Convo (3) J: Logan Bates
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
10
19%
Broadhurst (6) J: Jye McNeil
in good form, class edge, top jockey
Exotics
Exacta: Global Eclipse / Time Allowed, Convo
Trifecta: Box: Global Eclipse, Time Allowed, Convo, Olney
First 4: Box: Global Eclipse, Time Allowed, Convo, Olney, Triple Time
R3 • 1600m • Benchmark 66;12:00
Med Value Bet
Benchmark 66; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sumo Sandy Jackson Radley |
1 | 42% | $$4.37 | BEST |
| 2 | Humza Bey Ethan Brown |
4 | 34% | $$5.44 | DANGER |
| 3 | Curse It Logan Bates |
7 | 35% | $$5.76 | |
| 4 | Rapid Cheval Ben Melham |
5 | 25% | $$9.18 |
- Placed 2nd of 8 last start (0.5L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1600m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
EACH WAY#5 Sumo Sandy (0.5% win + 0.5% place)1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
14%
Blakmax (2) J: Craig Newitt
suited to trip, top jockey, inconsistent
#3
2
35%
Curse It (7) J: Logan Bates
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
3
21%
Eye For An Eye (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
4
34%
Humza Bey (4) J: Ethan Brown
flying form, top jockey
#1
5
42%
Sumo Sandy (1) J: Jackson Radley
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form
6
13%
Silver Pledge (8) J: Holly Durnan
in good form
7
22%
Sotomayor (3) J: Jamie Mott
proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#4
8
25%
Rapid Cheval (5) J: Ben Melham
in good form, class edge, top jockey
9
14%
Couldthisbetheone (6) J: Jake Noonan
flying form, top jockey
Exotics
Quinella: Sumo Sandy, Humza Bey
Exacta: Sumo Sandy / Humza Bey, Curse It
Trifecta: Box: Sumo Sandy, Humza Bey, Curse It, Rapid Cheval
First 4: Box: Sumo Sandy, Humza Bey, Curse It, Rapid Cheval, Sotomayor
R4 • 1200m • Benchmark 64;12:00
PASS
Benchmark 64; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tower Bridge Damian Lane |
3 | 48% | $$3.22 | BEST |
| 2 | Lyrics 'n' Song Logan Bates |
4 | 25% | $$6.26 | DANGER |
| 3 | Hotspur Reale Lachlan Neindorf |
8 | 29% | $$6.55 | |
| 4 | Layla Daniel Stackhouse |
6 | 23% | $$6.82 |
- Won last start by 0.5L at Sale over 1006m.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
No edge detected — race passed.
Full Field Analysis
#1
1
48%
Tower Bridge (3) J: Damian Lane
proven at distance, flying form
2
10%
Fly By Light (2) J: Ben Melham
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#2
3
25%
Lyrics 'n' Song (4) J: Logan Bates
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
4
8%
Sea Trader (7) J: Ethan Brown
flying form, top jockey
#3
5
29%
Hotspur Reale (8) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
13%
Amping Lass (5) J: Luke Cartwright
solid track record, proven at level, top jockey
7
13%
Arlington Row (1) J: Linda Meech
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#4
8
23%
Layla (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
R5 • 1200m • Benchmark 66;12:00
Med Strong Bet
Benchmark 66; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Attachments Logan Bates |
5 | 55% | $$4.25 | BEST |
| 2 | Markdel Lachlan Neindorf |
9 | 38% | $$6.67 | DANGER |
| 3 | Street Conqueror Michael Dee |
11 | 35% | $$7.41 | |
| 4 | Don't Russia Craig Newitt |
3 | 28% | $$9.67 |
- Placed 2nd of 10 last start (0.4L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
EACH WAY#3 Attachments (1.5% win + 1.5% place)3% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
23%
Bon's Your Back (10) J: Emily Pozman
proven at distance, in good form
2
23%
Villa Seventynine (6) J: Bailey Kinninmont
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
#1
3
55%
Attachments (5) J: Logan Bates
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#2
4
38%
Markdel (9) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
#3
5
35%
Street Conqueror (11) J: Michael Dee
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
#4
6
28%
Don't Russia (3) J: Craig Newitt
in good form, proven at level, top jockey
7
18%
Joltin' Joe (8) J: Luke Currie
solid track record, proven at distance, top jockey
8
15%
Supido's Choice (2) J: Patrick Moloney
proven at distance
9
21%
Thunder Hawk (1) J: Jordan Childs
solid track record, in good form
10
14%
Statice (7) J: Jye McNeil
flying form, top jockey
11
11%
Mahsay (4) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
proven at distance, top jockey
Exotics
Exacta: Attachments / Markdel, Street Conqueror
Trifecta: Box: Attachments, Markdel, Street Conqueror, Don't Russia
First 4: Box: Attachments, Markdel, Street Conqueror, Don't Russia, Villa Seventynine
R6 • 955m • Benchmark 70;12:00
Med Value Bet
Benchmark 70; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mrs Iglesia Michael Dee |
2 | 46% | $$5.09 | BEST |
| 2 | Egerton Ethan Brown |
10 | 38% | $$6.63 | DANGER |
| 3 | Gentle Steel Jamie Mott |
3 | 35% | $$6.83 | |
| 4 | Blackberry Bomb Ryan Houston |
5 | 28% | $$8.65 |
- Finished 5th last start, 2.5L off the winner.
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
WIN#10 Mrs Iglesia1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
18%
Shirshov (9) J: Logan Bates
proven at distance, top jockey
2
20%
Core Concept (1) J: Jackson Radley
solid track record, proven at distance
3
16%
El Pibe De Oro (4) J: Luke Cartwright
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
4
17%
Cannyworth (7) J: Damian Lane
proven at distance, in good form
#2
5
38%
Egerton (10) J: Ethan Brown
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, top jockey
6
20%
Hello Romeo (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse
proven at distance, top jockey
#4
7
28%
Blackberry Bomb (5) J: Ryan Houston
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, proven at level
#3
8
35%
Gentle Steel (3) J: Jamie Mott
solid track record, proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
9
16%
Loving Mandy (8) J: Holly Durnan
proven at distance, in good form
#1
10
46%
Mrs Iglesia (2) J: Michael Dee
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
11
9%
Point Moon (11) J: Luke Currie
proven at distance, flying form, top jockey
Exotics
Quinella: Mrs Iglesia, Egerton
Exacta: Mrs Iglesia / Egerton, Gentle Steel
Trifecta: Box: Mrs Iglesia, Egerton, Gentle Steel, Blackberry Bomb
First 4: Box: Mrs Iglesia, Egerton, Gentle Steel, Blackberry Bomb, Hello Romeo
R7 • 1200m • Open;12:00
Med Value Bet
Open; • Prize: $175000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celsius Star Lachlan Neindorf |
1 | 40% | $$4.53 | BEST |
| 2 | Give Me Space Michael Dee |
5 | 38% | $$4.73 | DANGER |
| 3 | Pop Award Daniel Stackhouse |
6 | 29% | $$6.88 | |
| 4 | Soft Love Harry Coffey |
8 | 27% | $$7.68 |
- Placed 3rd of 5 last start (2.0L).
- Dropping in grade from recent campaigns — well suited at this level.
- Has tried 1200m without placing — distance may not suit.
EACH WAY#7 Celsius Star (0.5% win + 0.5% place)1% of bank
Full Field Analysis
1
15%
A Little Deep (4) J: Jamie Melham
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey
2
23%
Corniche (2) J: Zac Spain
proven at distance, class edge
#3
3
29%
Pop Award (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse
proven at distance, in good form, class edge, top jockey
#2
4
38%
Give Me Space (5) J: Michael Dee
proven at distance, in good form, class edge
5
13%
Suparazi (3) J: Jye McNeil
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey
#4
6
27%
Soft Love (8) J: Harry Coffey
proven at distance, class edge, top jockey
#1
7
40%
Celsius Star (1) J: Lachlan Neindorf
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form, class edge
8
20%
Miss Icelandic (7) J: Patrick Moloney
solid track record, proven at distance, class edge
Exotics
Quinella: Celsius Star, Give Me Space
Exacta: Celsius Star / Give Me Space, Pop Award
Trifecta: Box: Celsius Star, Give Me Space, Pop Award, Soft Love
First 4: Box: Celsius Star, Give Me Space, Pop Award, Soft Love, Corniche
R8 • 2025m • Benchmark 70;12:00
Med Strong Bet
Benchmark 70; • Prize: $60000
| # | Horse | Bar | Conf | Price | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 'n' Screen Logan Bates |
3 | 58% | $$3.17 | BEST |
| 2 | Seafall Jackson Radley |
5 | 31% | $$6.80 | DANGER |
| 3 | Grey Ice Ben Melham |
1 | 29% | $$7.13 | |
| 4 | En Flique Lachlan King |
7 | 27% | $$8.21 |
- Placed 3rd of 6 last start (0.8L).
- Significant class drop — has been competing against stronger opposition.
- Stepping to 2025m for the first time — distance query.
- Sectional times below field average — may struggle in a tight finish.
WIN#2 Stage 'n' Screen1.5% of bank
Full Field Analysis
#2
1
31%
Seafall (5) J: Jackson Radley
class edge
#1
2
58%
Stage 'n' Screen (3) J: Logan Bates
solid track record, in good form, class edge, top jockey
#3
3
29%
Grey Ice (1) J: Ben Melham
in good form, proven at level, top jockey
#4
4
27%
En Flique (7) J: Lachlan King
in good form, top jockey
5
6%
Achillea (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf
proven at distance, top jockey
6
15%
Charming Deel (8) J: Jamie Mott
top jockey
7
16%
Madame Lexis (9) J: Michael Dee
in good form, proven at level
8
22%
Luvya Mumma (2) J: Alana Kelly
in good form, top jockey
9
15%
Vizie (4) J: Luke Cartwright
proven at distance, top jockey
Exotics
Exacta: Stage 'n' Screen / Seafall, Grey Ice
Trifecta: Box: Stage 'n' Screen, Seafall, Grey Ice, En Flique
First 4: Box: Stage 'n' Screen, Seafall, Grey Ice, En Flique, Luvya Mumma
Exotics — Cranbourne
Quaddies
Last 4 Quaddie
Leg 1 — R5
STRONG
3
Attachments
55%
4
Markdel
38%
Leg 2 — R6
OPEN
10
Mrs Iglesia
46%
5
Egerton
38%
8
Gentle Steel
35%
Leg 3 — R7
AVOID
7
Celsius Star
40%
4
Give Me Space
38%
3
Pop Award
29%
6
Soft Love
27%
Leg 4 — R8
STRONG
2
Stage 'n' Screen
58%
1
Seafall
31%
Staking:
48 combos | $48.00 for 100%
$20 = 42% | $50 = 104%
$20 = 42% | $50 = 104%
Value Cut Quaddie
COST SAVER
Banker R5 to cut cost — 24 combos vs 48 full
Leg 1 — R5
BANKER ★
3
Attachments
55%
Leg 2 — R6
OPEN
10
Mrs Iglesia
46%
5
Egerton
38%
8
Gentle Steel
35%
Leg 3 — R7
AVOID
7
Celsius Star
40%
4
Give Me Space
38%
3
Pop Award
29%
6
Soft Love
27%
Leg 4 — R8
STRONG
2
Stage 'n' Screen
58%
1
Seafall
31%
Staking:
24 combos | $24.00 for 100%
$20 = 83% | $50 = 208%
$20 = 83% | $50 = 208%
Multis
Value Multi: $14.01 — 1% of bank
VALUE MULTI — 2 overlay picks — market underestimating these
R2 Global Eclipse (Place • Overlay)R5 Attachments (Place • Overlay)R8 Stage 'n' Screen (Win)
4 races excluded - insufficient form
Betting Summary
Selective staking — bet only when confident
R2:
#2 Global Eclipse (Barrier 2)
Model: $3.71
3% of bank
Model: $3.71
3% of bank
R3:
#5 Sumo Sandy (Barrier 1)
Model: $4.37
1% of bank
Model: $4.37
1% of bank
R5:
#3 Attachments (Barrier 5)
Model: $4.25
3% of bank
Model: $4.25
3% of bank
R6:
#10 Mrs Iglesia (Barrier 2) UNDERLAY -52%
Model: $5.09
1% of bank
Model: $5.09
1% of bank
R7:
#7 Celsius Star (Barrier 1)
Model: $4.53
1% of bank
Model: $4.53
1% of bank
R8:
#2 Stage 'n' Screen (Barrier 3) UNDERLAY -35%
Model: $3.17
1.5% of bank
Model: $3.17
1.5% of bank
Total Stake: 10.5%
Approach: Only bet with ≥1% stake confidence. STAY OUT races excluded — sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Understanding The System
Race Classifications
- Top Pick: High-confidence, strong form
- Strong Bet: Good edge identified
- Exotics Only: Include in exotic bets
- Pass Race: Insufficient edge
Staking Guide
- 5%: Max confidence standout
- 3–4%: High confidence
- 2%: Good confidence
- 1%: Moderate / each-way value
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Leading Edge Tips — Professional Racing Analysis
Generated 26/02/2026, 7:23:38 am