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Leading Edge Tips

Kembla Grange, NSW - 2026-01-10

Last Updated: 10/1/26, 10:17:37 am AEST

🏇 Kembla Grange Race Meeting

📊 Track Conditions

Condition: Good

Rail Position: +3m 1100m-W/Post, True Remainder

First Race: 12:00

Total Races: 7

🌤️ Weather Forecast

Location: Wollongong, NSW

Temperature: 20°C - 40°C

Rain Chance: 8%

Wind: 24 km/h WNW

💡 Track Insights from Recent Form

What Played Out Recently:

  • Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
  • Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys at This Track:

  • Brock Ryan: 3 wins from 17 starts (17.6% win rate, 58.8% place rate)
  • A B Collett: 2 wins from 4 starts (50.0% win rate, 75.0% place rate)
  • G Buckley: 2 wins from 4 starts (50.0% win rate, 75.0% place rate)
  • Ms L Day: 2 wins from 6 starts (33.3% win rate, 33.3% place rate)
  • Mitchell Bell: 2 wins from 6 starts (33.3% win rate, 50.0% place rate)

Barrier Strategy: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace Profile: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

Race 1: Blinky's Birthday Dash Mdn Hcp

1000m | Maiden; | Prize: $42000

Full Field Analysis

1
Lope De Fortune (2) J: Keagan Latham
flying form
2%
2
Carafe (4) J:
inconsistent
3%
3
All Saints (8) J: Brock Ryan
solid track record, suited to trip
26%
4
Eclater (1) J:
looking for others
7%
5
At Her Mercy (1) J: Shaun Guymer
proven at distance, in good form
52%
6
Cinceritas (10) J:
inconsistent
1%
7
Nuns Chorus (3) J:
in good form, inconsistent
8
Pazyryk (6) J:
inconsistent
6%
9
Romancastle (5) J: Louise Day
flying form
3%
10
Andhe's Brave (3) J: Chad Lever
looking for others
11%
11
Infant Warrior (7) J: Deanne Panya
proven at distance, in good form
6%
12
Majestic Legend (6) J: Mitchell Bell
proven at distance
22%
13
Mediterra (8) J:
looking for others
10%
14
Vingt Neuf Noir (4) J: Adam Farragher
looking for others
11%

Top Selections

#5 At Her Mercy - Barrier 1 (Shaun Guymer) Rating: 52% | Each Way (1.5% win + 1.5% place)
#3 All Saints - Barrier 8 (Brock Ryan) Rating: 26% | Place Only
#12 Majestic Legend - Barrier 6 (Mitchell Bell) Rating: 22% | Place Only
#10 Andhe's Brave - Barrier 3 (Chad Lever) Rating: 11% | No Bet

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #5 At Her Mercy (Score: 210.3, Leads field by 99.6 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1000m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (13.4 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (8.2 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #3 All Saints (Score: 179.7, Leads field by 74.8 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (22.4 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Quality trainer record (8.1 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #12 Majestic Legend (Score: 174.5, Leads field by 75.9 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (24.6 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1000m (16.4 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)

Race 2: Dean Group Midway Mdn Plate

1500m | Maiden; | Prize: $45000

Full Field Analysis

1
Attestor (11) J:
looking for others
10%
2
Cathedral Cove (10) J: Mollie Fitzgerald
solid track record
46%
3
Don's Party (5) J: Andrew Calder
in good form
19%
4
Stock Road (1) J: Louise Day
proven at distance
12%
5
Yesglenn (7) J: Olivia Chambers
looking for others
13%
6
Blazing Statement (8) J: Grant Buckley
inconsistent
2%
7
Chief Orator (3) J:
inconsistent
1%
8
Wormington (6) J: Shaun Guymer
inconsistent
2%
9
Jewel County (2) J: Jess Taylor
looking for others
10%
10
Meritage (9) J: Pierre Boudvillain
inconsistent
3%
11
Canjustify (6) J:
inconsistent
1%
12
La Morra (1) J: Brock Ryan
inconsistent
10%
13
Ole's Diva (3) J: Mitch Stapleford
looking for others
8%
14
Sweet Twilight (4) J: Lee Magorrian
in good form
29%
15
Invincible Vecchio (3) J:
inconsistent
6%

Top Selections

#2 Cathedral Cove - Barrier 10 (Mollie Fitzgerald) Rating: 46% | Each Way (1.0% win + 1.0% place)
#14 Sweet Twilight - Barrier 4 (Lee Magorrian) Rating: 29% | Place Only
#3 Don's Party - Barrier 5 (Andrew Calder) Rating: 19% | Place Only
#5 Yesglenn - Barrier 7 (Olivia Chambers) Rating: 13% | No Bet

Top Selection: #2 Cathedral Cove - Barrier 10 (Mollie Fitzgerald)

Bet Type: Each Way (1.0% win + 1.0% place)
Stake: 2% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #2 Cathedral Cove (Score: 173.1, Leads field by 88.5 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Top jockey partnership (9.9 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (8.6 pts)
#2 - #14 Sweet Twilight (Score: 155.6, Leads field by 76.5 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (27.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (10.2 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#3 - #3 Don's Party (Score: 141.8, Leads field by 67.9 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (13.3 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)

Race 3: Matt Smith (Bm64)

2400m | Benchmark 64; | Prize: $42000

Full Field Analysis

1
Final Reset (5) J: Mitchell Bell
solid track record, inconsistent
10%
2
Mr Fabulous (7) J: Jess Taylor
solid track record, class edge
18%
3
Old Gregg (2) J: Grant Buckley
proven at distance
25%
4
Gatchan (3) J: Rebecca Bronett Prag
in good form
36%
5
Stay Tuned (6) J: Andrew Calder
in good form
32%
6
Mission Bravo (8) J: Mollie Fitzgerald
looking for others
5%
7
Powerful Prayer (1) J: Pierre Boudvillain
in good form
10%
8
Winning Point (8) J: Chad Lever
solid track record
15%
9
Koning (4) J: Lee Magorrian
solid track record, class edge
16%

Top Selections

#4 Gatchan - Barrier 3 (Rebecca Bronett Prag) Rating: 36% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#5 Stay Tuned - Barrier 6 (Andrew Calder) Rating: 32% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#3 Old Gregg - Barrier 2 (Grant Buckley) Rating: 25% | Place Only
#9 Koning - Barrier 4 (Lee Magorrian) Rating: 16% | Place Only

Top Selection: #4 Gatchan - Barrier 3 (Rebecca Bronett Prag)

Bet Type: Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
Stake: 1% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #4 Gatchan (Score: 176.6, Leads field by 36.2 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (11.7 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #5 Stay Tuned (Score: 171.2, Leads field by 35.2 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (21.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (11.1 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#3 - #3 Old Gregg (Score: 161.1, Leads field by 29.3 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (16.4 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 2400m (16.4 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

Exotics

Quinella: Gatchan, Stay Tuned
Exacta: Gatchan / Stay Tuned, Old Gregg
Trifecta: Box: Gatchan, Stay Tuned, Old Gregg, Koning
First 4: Box: Gatchan, Stay Tuned, Old Gregg, Koning, Mr Fabulous

Race 4: Kennards Hire Provincial (Bm64)

1400m | Benchmark 64; | Prize: $45000

Full Field Analysis

1
Apollo Mission (5) J: Ryan Bradley
solid track record, proven at distance
17%
2
Satness (3) J: Claire Ramsbotham
solid track record, proven at distance
50%
3
Hydrometer (3) J:
looking for others
10%
4
Audenzia (6) J: Pierre Boudvillain
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
36%
5
Ivana (2) J: Mitch Stapleford
solid track record
12%
6
Cuban Cigar (1) J: Mitchell Bell
in good form
13%
7
Ken'ker (5) J:
proven at distance
9%
8
Cuban Rain (4) J: Brock Ryan
solid track record, suited to trip, in good form
12%
9
Egypitian's Reward (7) J:
solid track record
9%
10
Victory At Omaha (7) J: Jess Taylor
solid track record, proven at distance, inconsistent
9%

Top Selections

#2 Satness - Barrier 3 (Claire Ramsbotham) Rating: 50% | Each Way (1.5% win + 1.5% place)
#4 Audenzia - Barrier 6 (Pierre Boudvillain) Rating: 36% | Win
#1 Apollo Mission - Barrier 5 (Ryan Bradley) Rating: 17% | Place Only
#6 Cuban Cigar - Barrier 1 (Mitchell Bell) Rating: 13% | No Bet

Top Selection: #2 Satness - Barrier 3 (Claire Ramsbotham)

Bet Type: Each Way (1.5% win + 1.5% place)
Stake: 3% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #2 Satness (Score: 214.1, Leads field by 57.0 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Kembla Grange form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1400m (19.7 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (8.1 pts)
#2 - #4 Audenzia (Score: 202.8, Leads field by 51.4 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Kembla Grange form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1400m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (13.3 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #1 Apollo Mission (Score: 171.6, Leads field by 23.1 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (22.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Kembla Grange form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1400m (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

Race 5: Wollongong Crane Trucks Conditional (Bm68)

1600m | Benchmark 68; | Prize: $42000

Full Field Analysis

1
Extravagant Choice (4) J: Louise Day
proven at distance, in good form
30%
2
Scorched Lane (6) J:
proven at distance, in good form
22%
3
Dark Vador (1) J: Mitchell Bell
proven at distance
10%
4
Whack Attack (3) J: Zac Wadick
proven at distance, in good form
10%
5
Devine Outcast (6) J: Brock Ryan
proven at distance, in good form
29%
6
Mah Ali (2) J: Pierre Boudvillain
suited to trip, class edge
31%
7
Southern Sky (2) J:
suited to trip
6%
8
Tip Top Timing (5) J: Deanne Panya
solid track record, proven at distance
21%
9
Unwritten (7) J: Mollie Fitzgerald
suited to trip, class edge, inconsistent
9%

Top Selections

#6 Mah Ali - Barrier 2 (Pierre Boudvillain) Rating: 31% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#1 Extravagant Choice - Barrier 4 (Louise Day) Rating: 30% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#5 Devine Outcast - Barrier 6 (Brock Ryan) Rating: 29% | No Bet
#2 Scorched Lane - Barrier 6 ( ) Rating: 22% | No Bet

Top Selection: #6 Mah Ali - Barrier 2 (Pierre Boudvillain)

Bet Type: Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
Stake: 1% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #6 Mah Ali (Score: 196.8, Leads field by 32.4 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (24.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1600m (10.9 pts)
  • Strong class rating (15.3 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#2 - #1 Extravagant Choice (Score: 195.9, Leads field by 36.0 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1600m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (12.3 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.6 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #5 Devine Outcast (Score: 194.2, Leads field by 40.0 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (27.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1600m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (10.9 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (8.1 pts)

Exotics

Quinella: Mah Ali, Extravagant Choice
Exacta: Mah Ali / Extravagant Choice, Devine Outcast
Trifecta: Box: Mah Ali, Extravagant Choice, Devine Outcast, Scorched Lane
First 4: Box: Mah Ali, Extravagant Choice, Devine Outcast, Scorched Lane, Tip Top Timing

Race 6: Illawarra Production Services Super Mdn Plate

1300m | Maiden; | Prize: $60000

Full Field Analysis

1
Cold Mist (6) J: Grant Buckley
proven at distance, in good form
32%
2
Don't (2) J: Jess Taylor
in good form
4%
3
My Star (8) J:
inconsistent
6%
4
Delicious Derek (10) J:
inconsistent
2%
5
Invincible Vecchio (1) J: Brock Ryan
inconsistent
6%
6
Shawnee Boy (3) J:
inconsistent
2%
7
Watson (7) J: Zac Wadick
in good form
23%
8
Miss Bugatti (3) J:
inconsistent
1%
9
Aperitas (3) J: Keagan Latham
in good form
16%
10
Asilah (13) J:
in good form
2%
11
Divine Timing (4) J: Andrew Calder
flying form
38%
12
Mark Of Glory (4) J:
inconsistent
5%
13
Rockthevelio (5) J: Louise Day
in good form
3%

Top Selections

#11 Divine Timing - Barrier 4 (Andrew Calder) Rating: 38% | Win
#1 Cold Mist - Barrier 6 (Grant Buckley) Rating: 32% | Win
#7 Watson - Barrier 7 (Zac Wadick) Rating: 23% | Place Only
#9 Aperitas - Barrier 3 (Keagan Latham) Rating: 16% | Place Only

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #11 Divine Timing (Score: 167.9, Leads field by 79.4 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (26.4 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (17.4 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #1 Cold Mist (Score: 160.7, Leads field by 78.7 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (23.1 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (10.1 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
#3 - #7 Watson (Score: 154.0, Leads field by 79.2 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (10.8 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)

Race 7: Paul Lovesman Hcp (C1)

1300m | Class 1; | Prize: $42000

Full Field Analysis

1
Aristocrat (1) J:
solid track record, proven at distance
20%
2
Captivating Tycoon (5) J: Lee Magorrian
solid track record, in good form
24%
3
Hippolyte Rock (2) J: Brock Ryan
looking for others
9%
4
Li'l Grug (6) J: Grant Buckley
solid track record
14%
5
Diva Las Vegas (3) J: Will Price
in good form
8%
6
Attractiveness (9) J:
flying form
12%
7
Crimson Wings (7) J:
in good form
17%
8
Cuban Cigar (11) J:
in good form
10%
9
Grainne (4) J: Mitchell Bell
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
17%
10
Deep Emotion (1) J: Keagan Latham
looking for others
13%
11
Fire 'n' Stone (7) J: Mollie Fitzgerald
proven at distance, flying form
21%

Top Selections

#11 Fire 'n' Stone - Barrier 7 (Mollie Fitzgerald) Rating: 21% | Place Only
#2 Captivating Tycoon - Barrier 5 (Lee Magorrian) Rating: 24% | Place Only
#1 Aristocrat - Barrier 1 ( ) Rating: 20% | Place Only
#7 Crimson Wings - Barrier 7 ( ) Rating: 17% | Place Only

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #11 Fire 'n' Stone (Score: 182.2, Leads field by 27.0 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (18.8 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.9 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #2 Captivating Tycoon (Score: 180.4, Leads field by 28.0 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Kembla Grange form (12.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (11.5 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #1 Aristocrat (Score: 179.7, Leads field by 30.7 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (27.5 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Kembla Grange form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

📊 Condensed Betting Summary

🎯 Intelligent Staking

Bet only when confident

R1: #5 At Her Mercy (Barrier 1)
3% of bank
R2: #2 Cathedral Cove (Barrier 10)
2% of bank
R3: #4 Gatchan (Barrier 3)
1% of bank
R4: #2 Satness (Barrier 3)
3% of bank
R5: #6 Mah Ali (Barrier 2)
1% of bank
R6: #11 Divine Timing (Barrier 4)
1% of bank
Total Stake: 11.0%

🔥 Degen Staking

Bet every race

R1: #5 At Her Mercy (Barrier 1)
3% of bank
R2: #2 Cathedral Cove (Barrier 10)
2% of bank
R3: #4 Gatchan (Barrier 3)
1% of bank
R4: #2 Satness (Barrier 3)
3% of bank
R5: #6 Mah Ali (Barrier 2)
1% of bank
R6: #11 Divine Timing (Barrier 4)
1% of bank
R7: #11 Fire 'n' Stone (Barrier 7)
0.5% (Saver)
Total Stake: 11.5%

Staking Explanation:
Intelligent: Conservative approach - only bet when we have strong confidence (≥1% stake)
Degen: Aggressive approach - bet every race, including 0.5% savers on uncertain races

📊 Understanding The System

🚫 Race Classifications (Why Some Races Are STAY OUT)

STAY OUT: Low-confidence races where the form is too unreliable to bet. Common in:

  • Maidens: Horses with no wins make form analysis highly speculative
  • Wet tracks: Track conditions can drastically change form - our system performs best on Good/Firm tracks
  • Limited form data: When runners lack sufficient race history for accurate assessment
  • Unpredictable fields: When no clear standout emerges from our analysis

Skipping these races protects your bankroll - sometimes the best bet is no bet.

💰 Staking System Explained

Stakes are allocated as a percentage of your total betting bank:

  • 5%: Maximum confidence - clear standout with strong form
  • 3-4%: High confidence - solid form meets ideal conditions
  • 2%: Good confidence - respectable chance in competitive race
  • 1%: Moderate confidence - each-way potential or value play
  • 0.5%: Saver bet - long shot with slim chance (Degen plan only)

Intelligent Plan: Only backs selections ≥1% stake (high confidence only)

Degen Plan: Bets every race including 0.5% savers (higher variance, higher risk)

⭐ Confidence Rating Breakdown

Our confidence score (0-100%) reflects multiple factors:

  • Recent form: Last 3-5 starts weighted heavily
  • Track/distance suitability: Proven performance at this venue
  • Class/weight match: Competitive at current handicap level
  • Jockey/trainer combo: Winning partnerships boost confidence
  • Track bias: Rail position and pace patterns at this venue

Confidence ≥ 70% = Load job (strong chance, consider backing heavily)

⚠️ System Limitations & Disclaimers

  • Wet tracks: System accuracy drops significantly in Heavy/Soft conditions - track form less reliable
  • Maidens: Unproven horses make predictions highly speculative - avoid or tread carefully
  • Barrier draws: Treated as low priority - we don't exclude good horses with wide barriers
  • Late scratchings: Can impact race dynamics - check for changes before betting
  • Market movements: Our suggested prices may differ from actual markets at jump time
  • Not infallible: This is form analysis, not fortune telling - losing runs will happen

⚠️ GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY ⚠️

These tips are statistical analysis tools, not guarantees. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Racing is entertainment - bet within your limits.

Beat the Bookie

Leading Edge Tips - Professional Racing Analysis

Generated 1/10/2026, 10:17:37 AM

Gamble responsibly. These are tips only and do not guarantee results.