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Leading Edge Tips

Cranbourne, VIC - 2026-01-10

Last Updated: 10/1/26, 10:17:37 am AEST

🏇 Cranbourne Race Meeting

📊 Track Conditions

Condition: Good

Rail Position: Out 3m Entire Circuit

First Race: 12:00

Total Races: 7

🌤️ Weather Forecast

Location: Cranbourne, VIC

Temperature: 16°C - 24°C

Rain Chance: 13%

Wind: 30 km/h W

💡 Track Insights from Recent Form

What Played Out Recently:

  • Recent races featured traffic issues - tactical rides and clear runs critical
  • Multiple reports of wide runs - suggests inside draws holding advantage

Top Jockeys at This Track:

  • J Mott: 1 wins from 5 starts (20.0% win rate, 100.0% place rate)
  • Beau Mertens: 1 wins from 7 starts (14.3% win rate, 57.1% place rate)

Barrier Strategy: Middle barriers (4-8) provide the best tactical options, allowing flexibility to settle forward or back depending on pace. Inside barriers excel in smaller fields, while wide draws suit horses with natural speed.

Pace Profile: Sprint races (1000-1200m) favor leaders and on-pace runners. Middle distance (1200-1600m) suits versatile runners who can position midfield. Staying races (1600m+) reward horses with sustained stamina who can finish strongly over the final 400m.

Race 1: Ladbrokes Mega Multi Mdn Plate

1000m | Maiden; | Prize: $32000

Full Field Analysis

1
On My Own (4) J: Koby Jennings
proven at distance
10%
2
Ellsworth (1) J: Jason Maskiell
flying form, inconsistent
6%
3
New Character (7) J: Dylan Dunn
looking for others
6%
4
Tijola (6) J: Celine Gaudray
in good form, inconsistent
6%
5
Zubba Storm (8) J: Thomas Stockdale
flying form
79%
6
Leona (5) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
7
Miss D'mez (5) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
form a concern, inconsistent
8
Azzacool (8) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
9
Grand Old Bowler (2) J: Fred W Kersley
form a concern, inconsistent
10
Shahar (3) J: Linda Meech
inconsistent
20%

Top Selections

#5 Zubba Storm - Barrier 8 (Thomas Stockdale) Rating: 79% | Win
#10 Shahar - Barrier 3 (Linda Meech) Rating: 20% | Place Only
#1 On My Own - Barrier 4 (Koby Jennings) Rating: 10% | No Bet
#2 Ellsworth - Barrier 1 (Jason Maskiell) Rating: 6% | No Bet

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #5 Zubba Storm (Score: 154.6, Leads field by 106.2 pts)

Best Attribute: classRating (18.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (17.7 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.7 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#2 - #10 Shahar (Score: 109.9, Leads field by 69.1 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Top jockey partnership (8.9 pts)
#3 - #1 On My Own (Score: 87.7, Leads field by 53.6 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1000m (20.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (9.9 pts)

Race 2: NZB Karaka 2026 Mdn Plate

1200m | Maiden; | Prize: $32000

Full Field Analysis

1
Anglesea (9) J: Linda Meech
form a concern, inconsistent
3%
2
Topmost (6) J: Patrick Moloney
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
77%
3
Unriddle (1) J: Sam Kennedy
proven at distance
13%
4
Onavuitton (8) J: Thomas Stockdale
flying form, proven at level, inconsistent
8%
5
Zoudeadly (4) J: Jason Maskiell
form a concern, inconsistent
2%
6
Great Fuego (5) J: Koby Jennings
in good form
7%
7
Rock Glory (7) J: Lachlan King
solid track record
14%
8
Sweetest Memories (3) J: Fred W Kersley
proven at distance, flying form, inconsistent
9%
9
Kadesh (10) J:
proven at distance, in good form, inconsistent
2%
10
Kirkhoepasse (9) J:
form a concern, inconsistent
11
License To Excite (1) J:
in good form
2%
12
Prestige Ka Ying (10) J: Celine Gaudray
proven at distance, flying form
12%
13
Sous La Lune (2) J: Dylan Dunn
in good form, inconsistent
2%
14
La Divina (8) J:
in good form, inconsistent
2%

Top Selections

#2 Topmost - Barrier 6 (Patrick Moloney) Rating: 77% | Win
#8 Sweetest Memories - Barrier 3 (Fred W Kersley) Rating: 9% | No Bet
#3 Unriddle - Barrier 1 (Sam Kennedy) Rating: 13% | No Bet
#4 Onavuitton - Barrier 8 (Thomas Stockdale) Rating: 8% | No Bet

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #2 Topmost (Score: 215.3, Leads field by 117.8 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (27.9 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1200m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (11.4 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.2 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #8 Sweetest Memories (Score: 145.1, Leads field by 51.6 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (25.7 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1200m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#3 - #3 Unriddle (Score: 140.4, Leads field by 51.2 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (23.6 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1200m (13.1 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)

Race 3: Springvale RSL Mdn Plate

1400m | Maiden; | Prize: $32000

Full Field Analysis

1
Ballistic Blue (8) J: Lachlan King
in good form
17%
2
Black Coal (6) J: Thomas Stockdale
inconsistent
17%
3
Canbecostly (13) J:
looking for others
6%
4
Times Square (9) J: Dylan Dunn
form a concern, inconsistent
4%
5
Baldoni (3) J: Koby Jennings
inconsistent
2%
6
Cuttin' Class (1) J: Shane Foley
in good form
13%
7
Good Onya Champ (11) J: Linda Meech
looking for others
12%
8
Otto's Dream (10) J: Fred W Kersley
form a concern, inconsistent
9
Valedictorian (5) J: Patrick Moloney
solid track record, in good form, proven at level
65%
10
Karma Queen (13) J:
inconsistent
6%
11
Aurora Rise (4) J: Eoin Walsh
flying form, inconsistent
3%
12
Hot Spirit (7) J: Cian Macredmond
inconsistent
2%
13
Empress Jupiter (13) J:
inconsistent
6%
14
Hellacious (6) J:
inconsistent
3%
15
Mike's Hope (2) J: Celine Gaudray
form a concern, inconsistent

Top Selections

#9 Valedictorian - Barrier 5 (Patrick Moloney) Rating: 65% | Each Way (2.5% win + 2.5% place)
#6 Cuttin' Class - Barrier 1 (Shane Foley) Rating: 13% | No Bet
#2 Black Coal - Barrier 6 (Thomas Stockdale) Rating: 17% | Place Only
#1 Ballistic Blue - Barrier 8 (Lachlan King) Rating: 17% | Place Only

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #9 Valedictorian (Score: 194.7, Leads field by 116.8 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Strong class rating (10.7 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (11.7 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.2 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #6 Cuttin' Class (Score: 144.2, Leads field by 71.4 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (25.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • In-form recent runs (12.5 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (8.7 pts)
#3 - #2 Black Coal (Score: 140.1, Leads field by 72.9 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (29.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Top jockey partnership (9.7 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

Race 4: Hygain Edge (Bm62)

1000m | Benchmark 62; | Prize: $27000

Full Field Analysis

1
Bella Cinque (6) J: Bree Temple
solid track record, proven at distance
39%
2
Frose (2) J:
proven at distance
19%
3
Gold Manuka (4) J: Samantha Noble
proven at distance
10%
4
Montjuic Magic (1) J: Logan McNeil
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
32%
5
Gliding Lightening (5) J: Linda Meech
proven at distance, in good form
13%
6
Torvega (2) J: Craig Newitt
proven at distance
28%
7
Affirmative Smile (8) J:
proven at distance
8%
8
Aquilion Girl (3) J: Paul Gatt
proven at distance
10%

Top Selections

#1 Bella Cinque - Barrier 6 (Bree Temple) Rating: 39% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#4 Montjuic Magic - Barrier 1 (Logan McNeil) Rating: 32% | Win
#6 Torvega - Barrier 2 (Craig Newitt) Rating: 28% | Place Only
#2 Frose - Barrier 2 ( ) Rating: 19% | Place Only

Top Selection: #1 Bella Cinque - Barrier 6 (Bree Temple)

Bet Type: Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
Stake: 1% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #1 Bella Cinque (Score: 199.8, Leads field by 41.6 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1000m (20.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #4 Montjuic Magic (Score: 196.5, Leads field by 44.7 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1000m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (11.3 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #6 Torvega (Score: 191.9, Leads field by 48.1 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (21.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1000m (16.4 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.4 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (9.9 pts)

Exotics

Quinella: Bella Cinque, Montjuic Magic
Exacta: Bella Cinque / Montjuic Magic, Torvega
Trifecta: Box: Bella Cinque, Montjuic Magic, Torvega, Frose

Race 5: Tassie Fine Foods (Bm62)

1300m | Benchmark 62; | Prize: $27000

Full Field Analysis

1
Highlands (7) J: Thomas Stockdale
solid track record, proven at distance
30%
2
Bons To Riches (5) J: Shane Foley
solid track record, in good form
16%
3
Stay Silent (3) J: Robert Whearty
looking for others
9%
4
Illuminance (4) J: Ruby Lamont
solid track record, proven at distance, in good form
56%
5
Justdoit (1) J: Bailey Kinninmont
solid track record, proven at distance, inconsistent
23%
6
Mongolian Mission (6) J: Fred W Kersley
flying form
1%
7
Winmar (2) J: Celine Gaudray
proven at level
7%
8
Savannah Chill (4) J:
proven at distance, in good form
7%
9
Prancing Queen (4) J:
solid track record, proven at distance
13%

Top Selections

#4 Illuminance - Barrier 4 (Ruby Lamont) Rating: 56% | Each Way (1.5% win + 1.5% place)
#1 Highlands - Barrier 7 (Thomas Stockdale) Rating: 30% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#5 Justdoit - Barrier 1 (Bailey Kinninmont) Rating: 23% | Place Only
#2 Bons To Riches - Barrier 5 (Shane Foley) Rating: 16% | Place Only

Top Selection: #4 Illuminance - Barrier 4 (Ruby Lamont)

Bet Type: Each Way (1.5% win + 1.5% place)
Stake: 3% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #4 Illuminance (Score: 224.0, Leads field by 65.0 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (24.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • In-form recent runs (10.4 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #1 Highlands (Score: 203.8, Leads field by 51.2 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.7 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #5 Justdoit (Score: 196.8, Leads field by 51.5 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 1300m (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

Exotics

Exacta: Illuminance / Highlands, Justdoit
Trifecta: Box: Illuminance, Highlands, Justdoit, Bons To Riches

Race 6: Southside Sessions Music Festival 17 Jan (Bm62)

1500m | Benchmark 62; | Prize: $27000

Full Field Analysis

1
Aristonous (2) J: Thomas Stockdale
looking for others
11%
2
Bancory Bay (7) J: Jason Maskiell
proven at distance
29%
3
Masterful (1) J: Sage Duric
solid track record, inconsistent
22%
4
Super Solar (6) J: Koby Jennings
looking for others
18%
5
Ataegina (5) J: Bailey Kinninmont
looking for others
19%
6
Gymkhana (10) J: Craig Newitt
looking for others
16%
7
Queen Beira (4) J: Celine Gaudray
proven at distance
30%
8
Filadeel (3) J: Zoe Waller
in good form
9%
9
Gable (8) J: Valentin Le Boeuf
looking for others
6%
10
Izola (11) J:
looking for others
7%
11
Gijima Gal (9) J: Samantha Noble
looking for others
9%

Top Selections

#7 Queen Beira - Barrier 4 (Celine Gaudray) Rating: 30% | Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
#2 Bancory Bay - Barrier 7 (Jason Maskiell) Rating: 29% | Place Only
#3 Masterful - Barrier 1 (Sage Duric) Rating: 22% | Place Only
#5 Ataegina - Barrier 5 (Bailey Kinninmont) Rating: 19% | Place Only

Top Selection: #7 Queen Beira - Barrier 4 (Celine Gaudray)

Bet Type: Each Way (0.5% win + 0.5% place)
Stake: 1% of bank

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #7 Queen Beira (Score: 164.8, Leads field by 42.8 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1500m (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (9.8 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (9.3 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #2 Bancory Bay (Score: 160.0, Leads field by 42.2 pts)

Best Attribute: distance (20.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 1500m (20.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)
#3 - #3 Masterful (Score: 149.2, Leads field by 35.3 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (30.0 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)

Exotics

Exacta: Queen Beira / Bancory Bay, Masterful
Trifecta: Box: Queen Beira, Bancory Bay, Masterful, Ataegina
First 4: Box: Queen Beira, Bancory Bay, Masterful, Ataegina, Gymkhana

Race 7: Duffy & Simon Lawyers Hcp (62)

2025m | Restricted 62; | Prize: $27000

Full Field Analysis

1
Onlygoldwilldo (10) J: Jason Maskiell
proven at distance
18%
2
Frank Express (12) J: Sheridan Clarke
solid track record, proven at distance
25%
3
Clinger (5) J: Jackie Beriman
looking for others
19%
4
Pending List (2) J: Craig Newitt
looking for others
10%
5
Xtrarevz (8) J: Koby Jennings
proven at distance, form a concern, class edge
13%
6
Exabanoise (6) J: Nadia Daniels
suited to trip
9%
7
Verifier (3) J: Robert Whearty
proven at distance, proven at level, inconsistent
13%
8
Redwood Shadow (1) J: Bree Temple
class edge, inconsistent
13%
9
Unquestionably (7) J: Cian Macredmond
proven at distance
19%
10
Olney (4) J: Lachlan King
looking for others
14%
11
Fiery Deal (9) J: Fred W Kersley
looking for others
11%
12
Northwood Vamoose (11) J: Sally Wynne
solid track record
14%
13
Tactfull (3) J:
proven at distance
14%
14
Jakk's Fortune (16) J:
looking for others
7%
15
Blaazay (1) J:
looking for others
11%
16
Master Polanski (2) J:
proven at distance
7%

Top Selections

#2 Frank Express - Barrier 12 (Sheridan Clarke) Rating: 25% | Place Only
#1 Onlygoldwilldo - Barrier 10 (Jason Maskiell) Rating: 18% | Place Only
#9 Unquestionably - Barrier 7 (Cian Macredmond) Rating: 19% | Place Only
#3 Clinger - Barrier 5 (Jackie Beriman) Rating: 19% | Place Only

Pass - No Bet

No clear value in this race

🎯 Why These Picks?

#1 - #2 Frank Express (Score: 181.8, Leads field by 44.1 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (27.4 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Excellent Cranbourne form (12.0 pts)
  • Proven at 2025m (20.0 pts)
  • Top jockey partnership (10.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (9.0 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#2 - #1 Onlygoldwilldo (Score: 163.7, Leads field by 27.9 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (29.3 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 2025m (20.0 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (9.4 pts)
  • Consistent performer (10.3 pts)
#3 - #9 Unquestionably (Score: 161.6, Leads field by 27.8 pts)

Best Attribute: speedFigure (21.6 pts)

Key Strengths:

  • Proven at 2025m (19.6 pts)
  • Quality trainer record (10.0 pts)

Exotics for Cranbourne

Quaddies

Last 4 Quaddie
Race 5 Avg: 36%
4 Illuminance 56%
1 Highlands 30%
5 Justdoit 23%
Race 3 Avg: 65%
9 Valedictorian 65%
Race 6 Avg: 25%
7 Queen Beira 30%
2 Bancory Bay 29%
3 Masterful 22%
5 Ataegina 19%
Race 7 Avg: 20%
2 Frank Express 25%
1 Onlygoldwilldo 18%
9 Unquestionably 19%
3 Clinger 19%
Staking: 48 combos | $48.00 for 100%
$10 = 21% | $20 = 42%

Multis

Value Multi: $44.83 - 1% of bank

📊 Condensed Betting Summary

🎯 Intelligent Staking

Bet only when confident

R1: #5 Zubba Storm (Barrier 8)
5% of bank
R2: #2 Topmost (Barrier 6)
5% of bank
R3: #9 Valedictorian (Barrier 5)
5% of bank
R4: #1 Bella Cinque (Barrier 6)
1% of bank
R5: #4 Illuminance (Barrier 4)
3% of bank
R6: #7 Queen Beira (Barrier 4)
1% of bank
Total Stake: 20.0%

🔥 Degen Staking

Bet every race

R1: #5 Zubba Storm (Barrier 8)
5% of bank
R2: #2 Topmost (Barrier 6)
5% of bank
R3: #9 Valedictorian (Barrier 5)
5% of bank
R4: #1 Bella Cinque (Barrier 6)
1% of bank
R5: #4 Illuminance (Barrier 4)
3% of bank
R6: #7 Queen Beira (Barrier 4)
1% of bank
R7: #2 Frank Express (Barrier 12)
0.5% (Saver)
Total Stake: 20.5%

Staking Explanation:
Intelligent: Conservative approach - only bet when we have strong confidence (≥1% stake)
Degen: Aggressive approach - bet every race, including 0.5% savers on uncertain races

📊 Understanding The System

🚫 Race Classifications (Why Some Races Are STAY OUT)

STAY OUT: Low-confidence races where the form is too unreliable to bet. Common in:

  • Maidens: Horses with no wins make form analysis highly speculative
  • Wet tracks: Track conditions can drastically change form - our system performs best on Good/Firm tracks
  • Limited form data: When runners lack sufficient race history for accurate assessment
  • Unpredictable fields: When no clear standout emerges from our analysis

Skipping these races protects your bankroll - sometimes the best bet is no bet.

💰 Staking System Explained

Stakes are allocated as a percentage of your total betting bank:

  • 5%: Maximum confidence - clear standout with strong form
  • 3-4%: High confidence - solid form meets ideal conditions
  • 2%: Good confidence - respectable chance in competitive race
  • 1%: Moderate confidence - each-way potential or value play
  • 0.5%: Saver bet - long shot with slim chance (Degen plan only)

Intelligent Plan: Only backs selections ≥1% stake (high confidence only)

Degen Plan: Bets every race including 0.5% savers (higher variance, higher risk)

⭐ Confidence Rating Breakdown

Our confidence score (0-100%) reflects multiple factors:

  • Recent form: Last 3-5 starts weighted heavily
  • Track/distance suitability: Proven performance at this venue
  • Class/weight match: Competitive at current handicap level
  • Jockey/trainer combo: Winning partnerships boost confidence
  • Track bias: Rail position and pace patterns at this venue

Confidence ≥ 70% = Load job (strong chance, consider backing heavily)

⚠️ System Limitations & Disclaimers

  • Wet tracks: System accuracy drops significantly in Heavy/Soft conditions - track form less reliable
  • Maidens: Unproven horses make predictions highly speculative - avoid or tread carefully
  • Barrier draws: Treated as low priority - we don't exclude good horses with wide barriers
  • Late scratchings: Can impact race dynamics - check for changes before betting
  • Market movements: Our suggested prices may differ from actual markets at jump time
  • Not infallible: This is form analysis, not fortune telling - losing runs will happen

⚠️ GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY ⚠️

These tips are statistical analysis tools, not guarantees. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Racing is entertainment - bet within your limits.

Beat the Bookie

Leading Edge Tips - Professional Racing Analysis

Generated 1/10/2026, 10:17:37 AM

Gamble responsibly. These are tips only and do not guarantee results.